blaaklint

12 minutes ago, Deeg67 said:

I don't know how well-rounded Burnley is. They're in a 3-way tie for 9th in the Championship in goals. They basically do one thing well - prevent goals - albeit they do it extremely well. That makes them the opposite of well-rounded if anything, pretty much a one-trick pony.

interestingly, their xga is worse than leeds - but burnley have an excellent keeper (and have gotten quite lucky), whereas leeds have meslier (who is decidedly meh)

19 hours ago, BKLFox said:

that stat is as pointless as the "possession in the last 5 minutes" 1 that sky like to put up

 

also there are 20 teams in the premier league each with a 25 man playing squad (+under 21s) now thats 500(+) players ergo there must be 213(+) worse players than Phillips no

A lot of those players won't have made enough appearances - I assume the stat requires a certain percentage of minutes played.

3 minutes ago, Flappit said:

Anyone got any examples of players who came back anywhere near their original level after ACL surgery? 

Ruud van Nistelrooy

1 minute ago, Matt said:

So, we happy we're creating more agreed? 

 

You cannot not be happy with that of course!

 

But, (Genuine question) how come we were scoring more, being more clinical when we created less? Realise i've answered my own question, it's as simple as we were more clinical, but why and when we're create more it doesn't take the clinical side away, or despite creating more are they not as good a chances as when we created less - I guess that's where xG come in for all I hate those kind of stats.

 

Either way, we're not scoring (many) anymore.

 

Cos' Cooper's not in charge anymore. 

 

The finishing is just natural variation, not something that's really controllable. There are very few players in the world who consistently score more than their xG.

2 hours ago, StriderHiryu said:

 

 

We had this funny moment on the stream today

 

Any player who was poor under Cooper deserves a clean slate. Bobby wasn't too good when he first came on today but ends with a goal and an assist. He got himself into good positions and the pick out for Vardy was good. He always looked good for Fulham when he played there, and there was a reason why they are big fans of his. His age and wages may prove to be issues, but seeing an impact player that can come off the bench and do something is what we should expect and today was the first time he delivered!

The pass to Vardy deflected off a Brighton player I think.

On 03/12/2024 at 23:24, Sunbury Fox said:

Can anyone explain how our 7 'big chances' tonight equated to an xG of only 1.39? Surely each big chance must have an xG of at least 0.25 to be classed as a big chance?

Fotmob have us with an xG of 1.67. As far as I can tell, a big chance is > 0.1xG, so really not very big.

2 minutes ago, Lambert09 said:

anyone else completely confused how the red wasn’t taken back and a penalty given? Fatawu just slams into him 

Yeah I was convinced play was being called back to give them a penalty - no idea how it wasn't given.

4 hours ago, moore_94 said:

£15m paid for him and his game time for us:

 

16 appearances

13 starts

1,179 minutes played

13.1 90s

 

Seemingly couldn’t even get at least an option to buy into the loan deal let alone an obligation

 

Another brilliant Rudkin/Rodgers signing, we fully deserve these PSR problems

Nearly £13k per minute

8 minutes ago, StriderHiryu said:

For me that half wasn't bad. Pre-season isn't about results, it's about understanding the style fo play, the structure and fitness. Getting realtionships working together and improving on them. In this game it's clear what the attacking and defensive strcutures are, we are going back-to-front a lot better and in general have controlled the game pretty well. Creativity is not the greatest, but better, but I can see what we are trying to do at least.

 

So my notes.

 

• Nominally we are a 4231.
• We have a defensive 5 and an attacking 5, just like last season.
• When off the ball, we press and defend in a compact 442 shape.
• However, the difference is that one of the fullbacks pushes up to become a winger, with the starting winger drifting in to become a 10/8.
• In this game, that player is Kristiansen, and we have found him a lot.
• The 10's make the inside channel runs like Ndidi and KDh used to make last season.
• A big difference from last season is that Mads is not coming out to make an additional CB. That means that we don't quite have the box midfield from last season to play out from.
• However, we are still clearly trying to play the ball out from the back, using Winks as the main person to build through. Ndidi is more of a destroyer compared to the way Ricardo used the ball a lot more last season.
• We are running a high press with the front 5, and the back 5 are stepping up like last season. We didn't do this as much in the last few friendlies, but it's notable today. We have turned the ball over to make chances a few times, but also got caught out once or twice on transition too.

 

As the half went on we got more and more control and did start making chances. But the biggest frustration was Viktor Kristiansen. He got the ball so many times, but always turned back in! Vary it with some first time crosses, try and attack the full back from time to time, then vary it with coming back inside. Moving Stephy inside *could* work, but if the player out wide doesn't pose the same ability to beat a man, or support the inside player, then it's a waste. Last season Mavididi and KDH combined really well.

 

I am sure many will be disapointed with the display but for me there's a lot to work with here. The season is only two weeks away which is a worry, but from a coaching / tactical perspective there is a clear identity. Someone needs to tell off Kristiansen!

 

 

 

I think the comment about Mads is a concern for me. It's clear he loves being involved in possession - if he doesn't get to do so, that might be an incentive for him to seriously consider offers.

53 minutes ago, Vlad the Fox said:

Has anyone got his stats for 1v1 duals as I’m sure they’ll be very good as he doesn’t seem to get beat very often and makes the tackle. 

For challenges against players dribbling, he's at 62.8% success (45th in the league). Decent, but behind Doyle (71.1%), Faes (69.0%) and JJ (64.0%).

Sidenote: didn't expect Doyle's success rate to be so high, and thought JJ would be higher since both Enzo and Rodgers thought he was the best 1-on-1 defender at the club.

20 minutes ago, liamashley said:

Surely that isn't correct? That would mean the more chances you have in one move, the lower the xG would become with each chance...when really the likelihood of a goal should increase the more chances you have? 
Three tap ins at 0.4 would be 0.06  (which is the equivalent to a shot from 50yards with the keeper on his line) 
One tap in would be 0.4 
 

You're right, I put this the wrong way around. In situations like this, they actually calculate the probability that you didn't score. In the example I put, that would be (1 - 0.8) * (1 - 0.5) = 0.1 probability of not scoring. xG would then be given as 0.9

Your three tap-ins example would be 1 - 0.6^3 = 0.78 xG

5 hours ago, LCFCJohn said:

This is true. I often think this with other examples when they are side i.e if a striker misses two sitters in the same move or two quality saves in the same move by a goalkeeper. I suppose it is the same for other stats I.e 2 shots on target but if the first goes in the second won’t happen. But yes, in terms of context, call it equivalent to a brace at the other end.

 

A case of people not appreciating that games can be won at the other end of the pitch still though!

No, most xG models take this into account. If you have a 0.8 chance then a 0.5 rebound, the total xG given (at least by Opta) would be 0.8 * 0 5 = 0.4

18 hours ago, Lionator said:

That obviously an impressive stat but it seems that more of those should’ve been converted. Is it a him thing or others? 

It's not far off par, in the Championship about 40-45% of big chances are scored on average. So maybe an assist or two more would be fairer, but it's within the right ballpark.

Somehow played both one of his best matches and one of his worst matches, but in the same performance? Got done on the dribble probably four or five times and gave the ball away in some horrible situations, but also made two or three of the best blocks I've ever seen

13 hours ago, MPH said:

 

if you’ve been reading about goalkeeping then you should know for the first he did the right thing in not going back to his line because he narrowed the angle. It happens to be that carvalho took his shot well( a player we we’re interested in signing for what it’s worth, before he went to Hull).

But its been shown that narrowing the angle and closing down the shot only really works from a) less than 14 yards and b) relatively central positions. From slightly wider and further out positions, engaging the attacker has a negative impact on likelihood of a save.

If Mads wants to narrow the angle, then he needs to commit to it fully instead of dropping and then deciding to do so. IMO though, I think if he backs off that it would take a significantly better finish from Carvalho to beat him.

Engage and react, which is what Mads does, is the worst strategy in virtually all scenarios.

https://x.com/Jhdharrison1/status/1273312389233082369?s=20

1 hour ago, HesNotGudjonsonn2 said:

Who was our free kick specialist before Maddison? 

Mahrez

I'm not normally critical of Mads, but I don't think he had a great match. Obviously, the penalty save is fantastic - but he made life very difficult for himself with both of Hull's goals.

For the first, after Faes loses the ball, Mads backs off towards goal and then stops. Carvalho's first touch isn't great, it kind of gets stuck under his feet and takes him off at a poor angle, and he's put under pressure fairly quickly by Wout. In that situation, Mads needs to back off completely to give himself reaction time. Instead he gets trapped in no-man's land: not close enough to Carvalho to spread and make himself big, and not far enough away to give himself the best chance.

For the second, Zaroury hits it hard and low but it's not particularly in the corner. Mads isn't set well when the shot is taken. I think he'll be very disappointed he didn't get across quicker and would normally expect to save that shot.

Forgive me if this is unfairly harsh, but I've recently been reading a lot about goalkeeping and thought I might as well try and put that knowledge to good use.

40 minutes ago, urban fox said:

So with 10 games to go, w8, d1, L1 = 25 pts which would leave us on 106 equalling Reading’s record. Anyone know what their goal difference was? We could take the record on GD.

+67, which is a long way clear of us atm.

Here's a (not) fun stat: in the league over the last three seasons, KDH has put exactly one shot on target with his right foot.

1 hour ago, Ric Flair said:

His two goals he has scored were from shots thst will have registered low on the xG scale but I can recall at least 6 absolute sitters he's missed this season. Him and Casadei together must have an xG about 10 goals higher than actual.

You made me curious so I had a look. In the Championship, he's on 1 goal from 0.97xG. The goal he scored vs Swansea was a decent finish from an okay chance; the only good chance he's missed (and has had all season) was against Sunderland (0.39xG). He finishes alright, but he just doesn't get into dangerous areas whatsoever - which tbh is far more concerning.

When it comes to creating chances, he's not great either. Creates 1.76 chances per 90 by passing - pretty decent - but they're universally pretty poor quality chances. Good dribbler, but doesn't dribble often, and his defensive numbers are somewhere between meh and bad.

https://www.fotmob.com/en-GB/players/845991/yunus-akgun

1 hour ago, Chrysalis said:

We have done a Man City, found a technicality which will prevent them from proving we in breach of the rules.  This is only a delay though as we will be found out later.

If we was on track to be within the rules we would have complied.

Every year, each club has to provide info for the EFL to make a projection for losses for the period ending next season. The EFL decided to do ours in November, over four months before we are required to provide them with said information. It's hardly a technicality; they've completely misapplied their own rules.

Our team atm scores more and concedes fewer, so at least on paper the answer is fairly straightforward. I'm not sure its that easy to answer though.

12 minutes ago, Nolucklcfc said:

I know he’s only young but way overrated by some on here. And that ****ing pass to the byline as to stop. 

That ball has been one of our best weapons this season and both Wilf and Praet love that run, but Abdul keeps on overhitting it when he wasn't previously.