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About blaaklint

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  1. Apparently we've scored exactly the same number of goals (612) as Sunderland in 117 fewer games.
  2. It is a fact that Burnley had 62% possession, but there's no value attached to that and nobody with any sense would suggest so. Statistics, when in their rawest form, merely describe rather than evaluate. Anybody who understands statistics would not say that "Burnley outplayed us", just that they had more possession. Conflating the two would mean you fall into the fact-value distinction. None of that mean that statistics are useless.
  3. I think this is what you meant.
  4. Then make the punishment for handballs an indirect freekick rather than a direct freekick or penalty, leaving them for non-handball fouls.
  5. For instance, Kasper’s CLCAA% wouldn’t have been affected by Camarasa’s goal: the shot would have been valued highly. In terms of number of shots: I agree, it is a fairly meaningless statistic. But that’s why we try to develop new stats, to take account of this. xG is an example, trying to quantify the probability of a player scoring from a situation. It shows our 27 shots against Cardiff, probabilistically, should have become 2.0 goals, giving 0.07 xG per shot. Firstly, that’s pretty awfully low, but it’s not necessarily a problem. Lots of teams prefer lots of low-value shots over a few high-value shots, which Puel seemed to like. But also, it shows that we’re terrible at finishing rather than particularly struggling with chance creation. Basic stats can be meaningless, but modelling like xG and PSxG attempt to avoid this. Ultimately, the score is all that matters but, because football is so low-scoring, a team can play much worse than their opponent and win, or better and lose, very easily. But the stats do give us some way to quantify performance.
  6. I've always wondered: if you say his full name three times in a row, do you summon him?
  7. An opposition throw-in is pretty much the least worse bad outcome, if that makes sense. If he overhits it, they get a throw in which we have a pretty good chance of regainig the ball from. It’s the same thinking behind kicking-off with the long ball out wide.
  8. As a defence of Maguire, you could argue that he’s been playing more against the better teams than Morgan. But you make a good point.
  9. That’s the thing: the stats tell us that Kaspar concedes more than he should. However, that’s not incompatible with Kasper saving some fantastic shots. For all we know, he might be conceding easy shots and saving hard shots, which would indicate that he has some ability, but is inconsistent. Statistics are interesting, but like you say: they’re not complete.
  10. No there isn’t, which was one of my concerns. I think it’s probably much harder to judge though. If there was, I think we’d see exactly the opposite of what the positive outcomes show.
  11. Basically. He’s brilliant at shot-stopping and very good at coming for balls. He’s even decent with his feet. Probably the best, most complete keeper in the PL.
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