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About Stivo

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  1. It’s on the uk dashboard under deaths. they report two figures the 28 day which is quick and easy to calculate and the deaths with covid19 on the certificate which suffers from the problem that it takes on average 5 days for data to filter through and thus you have to discount the last 5 days of data as they are incomplete.
  2. J&J are talking about delays in Europe. That may be behind both the EU making noises about vaccine exports again and some of our supply issues in April. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-eu-johnson-johnson-idUSKBN2B11KY I feel sure we must approve Novavax soon which is being made in the UK.
  3. It’s a strange story. I thought that AZ were manufacturing the vaccine itself in Australia. Why is fill and finish then happening in Italy?
  4. In the autumn definitely universities, you could track high COVID rates to university towns eg Exeter. But I have seen it suggested that the fast spreading Kent variant is more easily passed between children - how accurate that is I obviously don’t know. Peak cases in London was 1st jan and Leicester the week later, which kind of fits with the theory that school end of term before Christmas could have been significant. I just think a two week delay for secondaries would have been prudent. Post Easter all the priority groups will be vaccinated so the risks diminish.
  5. Yup, I think that there’s a real risk that we will be back to 60k cases a day by Easter. With the Kent variant cases increased 6x during December and some schools were doing some home learning in that term I believe. The vaccines for over 70s should reduced total hospitalisations by about a third ( or perhaps a little more) which obviously helps, but it all looks just a few weeks too optimistic to me (as usual for Boris). During the run up to Easter other people in the other priority groups will start to be covered as well, which will start to help too. It all d
  6. Arghh it’s the wrong link!!! I read the correct one but then got the year wrong and linked the wrong one . the one of interest is this. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/963565/S1130_SPI-M-O_Summary_of_further_modelling_of_easing_restrictions.pdf
  7. You can read the combined outputs which is a consensus. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/887434/18-spi-m-o-consensus-statement-17022020.pdf
  8. Indeed. 90% protection against hospitalisation with 85% take up say reduces hospitalisations by 75% which is great. The currently vaccinated group is only about 50% of hospitalisations. So it will reduce it by 37% overall, not so great. With secondary schools going back it’s now a race between the exponential rise of the kent variant causing hospital admissions, the vaccination program for the other priority groups and the Easter school holidays.
  9. The other key thing that they don’t know yet is the extent to which the vaccines protect against hospitalisation. If vaccines are say 75% effective against symptomatic Covid but are 95% effective against hospitalisations then we will be in a much better position to ease restrictions faster.
  10. Is it available as an alternative to staying in a quarantine hotel and paying £1500??
  11. Israel is much smaller than the U.K. and they had in proportion a far higher number of doses available. The first dose of the vaccine starts to be significantly effective from week 3 and so will only impact hospitalisations a couple of weeks later. The uk view ( which is unproven as yet) is that the graph would look much the same if the Israelis had delayed the second dose, and that for the U.K. with a more limited supply it was better to give 15M people 75% protection rather than 7.5M people 80%. The percentages may differ between the two vaccines, but the U.
  12. I think that the best strategy would be to send primary schools back first and monitor cases to gauge the impact. Then as the vaccination program proceeds send secondary back. It is easier and more effective to teach to older kids online and primary parents are (on average at least) younger than secondary parents so the risks to parents are lessened as well. There is a case for not requiring teachers in the groups at risk of hospitalisation ie > 50 years old to go in until they have been vaccinated.
  13. I don’t think it’s you who are confused. I think that you are totally correct in questioning it. It seems that the official R rate on the dashboard is calculated on data that means that it lags by several weeks. It’s also an average over that period. Some of the data that feed into such as the ONS stats on the number of people with covid19 is also data that itself lags. The official R rate has been falling over the last 6 weeks but as you say has only just gone under 1. As you say that makes it not very useful for decision making. I have simply concluded that th
  14. I think that there is a confusion between the official R figure quoted on the dashboard and a verbal shorthand when talking about relaxing and trying to say we need to stop the virus growing exponentially when we relax. There is an actual R rate today ( ie there are say 500k with covid19 and each one infects say 0.9 over the next 4 days) No one can measure that, but the number of positive pcr tests gives as you suggest ( with some qualifications) a view on what it was 4-5 days ago. Hospital admissions gives a view on what it was 10 days a ago and is perhaps more accurate than the
  15. Everything you ever wanted to know about R... as it explains its a lagging indicator https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
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