Dollers

No my laugh was because you've changed two incidents in your favour to make that table. Every other team has incidents go wrongly for and against them. You can't just pluck out two, make them favour you (also assume the pen was scored), and then update the table accordingly! Well you can but it would be utterly pointless.

I mean yeah, you could drill down into every decision you've had and every one we've had (or not had). Every shot, tackle, deflection... But the point is, should there be such a disparity, generally, in one of the metrics? Not just a few more pens - 5 times more! Seems unlikely for two attacking teams, first and second in the league. Anyway, pens was just a stat I had to hand. I think it's fair to say we haven't been especially lucky on that one.

At normal speed it looks a coming together and a bit soft. From the slowed-down close-up, yes it looks a pen. Not sure what your point is, I've not mentioned this incident anywhere. And I could quite easily get a load of clips together (if I had the time and inclination) where we've been unlucky. You've posted ONE incident.

I don't mean your pens are lucky necessarily, it might be that we've been unlucky. The point is, it seems a bit odd that you'd get 5 times the pens the team next to you in the league (who also attack the box with pace) would.

We have wingers/wingbacks who attack with pace, and super-subs on 70 mins who attack with pace. That's part of our strategy. Even if you are a bit more dominant, Leicester have been awarded FIVE TIMES more penalties than us. 11 in 28 games is an extraordinary amount.

No, I don't think it's disproportionate. I've seen every minute of every Ipswich game, and whilst we have had some lucky bits we've had plenty of unlucky bits too. We, like most supporters in the league I assume, feel like we get sh!t refs every week, for example. We've had some high profile fortuitous goals compared to other seasons, but overall our wins definitely haven't "owed as much to fortune as they have (your) good play". I think your multiple lottery wins example is not really the right analogy when it comes to sport. That really is flukiness! With sport, like I say, you do make your own luck by doing things right over and over. "The more I practice the luckier I get" is a well known phrase that's been attributed to several sportspeople. Someone on the Ipswich forum (TWTD) has got to the crux of it: "Everyone seems baffled by how good we have been so are filling a void with bollox." What's also interesting is that different teams' supporters are filling that void with different bollox. I haven't looked at any Leeds forum but from others; Leicester fans think we're supernaturally lucky. Sunderland reckon we've splashed-the-cash-like-Derby-did and are in financial trouble if we don't go up. Plymouth reckon we're a bunch of hooligans with players who want to end opposition players' careers. None of this is true. Confirmation bias is an interesting topic, and it's especially weird/funny when you see 3 different versions on the go.

The phrase "you make your own luck" was coined in sport because it's true; the harder you work at certain aspects the more will go right (in a seemingly lucky way). Like deflections that go in. These aren't simply down to luck. They're from shooting a lot. You either forget, or don't notice, or don't-watch-all-our-games-so-won't-notice-because-they-won't-all-be-on-the-highlights, the shots that go wayward and do nothing. Again, having "the Gods of great fortune to thank for a not insignificant proportion of their points haul" is utter nonsense based on an erroneous perception. You haven't seen all the points we've lost through bad luck. I've been wondering where this 'lucky Ipswich' tag comes from (it largely seems to be from Leicester supporters) and I can only think it's that you can't understand how a team can come up from League 1 and immediately do so well, so in your heads you have to invent a reason. You see a couple of lucky instances, think 'ah, they're a lucky team, that's the answer' and then extrapolate it across the whole season. It becomes confirmation bias - every bit of good luck you blow up out of all proportion... every bit of bad luck is excused or not noticed. And here we are. It's still not true though. We aren't any luckier than anyone else. It's just (some of your) perception.

Crikey, just the same old nonsense comes up on here time and time again. If you slow down the 'Plymouth pen' you'll see contact wasn't in the box. Even Plymouth supporters have admitted this! Yes we've avoided goals by the ball hitting the post - but this isn't luck it's bad shooting (or the lack of composure you mention!)... and every team has this... and we've hit the woodwork ourselves. We hit both posts and crossbar v Maidstone in the cup and lost! We've also had plenty of bad luck that you've failed to see. Just one example - we had two non-goals given against us at Preston in a game we lost 3-2... that the officials have since apologised for. "Overall we’ve been way more dominant in games than ipswich" - so you've watched the entire performance of every Ipswich game as well as Leicester's then?! I bet you haven't even read all the stats of every Ipswich game, let alone watched! If anyone's lucky with officials it's Leicester. You've been awarded more penalties than any other team in the league... and FIVE TIMES more than Ipswich.

Apologies, I misunderstood when you said "People make comments in the heat of the moment", taking it rather too literally! Yes I read what you said and it makes sense in terms of a sentence. But I don't know how you work out our momentum is worth "a hell of a lot more than 3 points." We shall see. I'd much rather Leicester went up than Leeds.

I haven't missed the positive comments, but there's not really anything for me to add to them is there? Erm, "thanks"?! I've been reading these pages for a while and there are reams and reams of 'Ipswich are lucky' comments, and not "all in the heat of the moment." "Points in the bag mean nothing..." haha, what?! You're disagreeing with every manager ever! But anyway, I'll leave it there. You're clearly "in the heat of the moment" still now.

I'm not joking. Feel free to list the 4 lucky deflections we've had, I can't think of 4 (Morsy's against you only counts as one they were part of the same shot!)

I can check what other fans are saying (I'm not "worrying" about it) AND enjoy our success. Dunno about you, but there's room for both in my head! Points in the bag are always better than imaginary future points, but I do understand why you're worried. I'm not worried about us, we've already had an amazing season whatever happens. We're just up from League 1 and up against 3 teams just down from the Prem, so I'm just being realistic. There's 11 games and lots of twists and turns to go, there's no way anyone's position is "secure"! I'm sure one decent performance/win and your confidence will come flooding back.

Nope, it doesn't matter. I've been on here a while, not just since our win yesterday. I'm interested in what other supporters are talking about. "Can you just be happy about that?" - as in, can I just go away and not correct you with facts? Sounds very much like you're the one being defensive and is very insecure. No, we're not nailed on for anything. Honestly, the doom and gloom on here. I've even seen one of your supporters saying he's throwing his ST away. Whilst top! You've had a blip but you're still in the driving seat and have a much better squad than ours, sprinkled with Prem players. You'll be fine.

Haha. We haven't regularly had deflections throughout the season, we've had 2 or 3, and the reason you get deflections that go in is by shooting towards goal. Whether they go in cleanly or deflected doesn't matter - if you keep shooting it isn't just luck. I could also tell you loads of occasions where we've lost points due to being unlucky. You don't watch our games so you will have missed those. We're into March now, only 3 points behind you, and have only lost 4 games all season. That's an extraordinary amount of luck!

Like I say, that was just one stat I had to hand. 11 pens to 2 for that period does not suggest Leicester are unlucky and Ipswich are lucky. We mix it up shots-wise, there's no particular theme. Our average shot distance is 16.9 yards vs the opposition average of 17.8 yards. Leicester have averaged shots at 16.7 yards vs the opposition average of 18.1 yards. So there's actually very little difference between us in terms of shot distance.

I think every manager and every supporter thinks that! Before our game yesterday Plymouth supporters on their forum were bemoaning us bringing "our ref" with us. They said "our ref" based on us not having lost with him in charge, so therefore he must be biased. I pointed out that we've only lost 4 games all season, so there will be plenty of refs we have a decent record with, and in that there will always be one with a better record than the rest. That's not necessarily bias, just a logical inevitability!

Yeah fair enough on the reds point, but that was just one point in a post that was overall bemoaning Ipswich and Leeds' luck. "If we had a fraction of the fortuitous breaks Leeds and Ipswich have going for them, we’d be out of sight now... the list is endless!" I'm not saying your pens have been undeserved, but when you get 11 and we get 2, despite similar 'attacking in the box' stats, then the idea that Ipswich are lucky (on that metric at least) falls down. Either you've been lucky and got good refs who spot correct pens, or we've been unlucky with the amount we've been given (or a bit of both). There are probably plenty of other stats that break the myth that Ipswich are particularly lucky, the pens one was just one I had to hand.

We had 3 starters out today (not including long-term Hirst). You surely aren't bemoaning injuries with Leicester's incredible squad?!

In a recent 28 game spell Leicester got 11 penalties. Ipswich got 2 during that time. Ipswich seem to be around the norm for the number of pens we've had, although in reality we will be in the opposition box a lot more than some of the teams in that bracket and thus statistically you'd expect us to have had more pens as there is simply more opportunity for fouls. That might also explain why Leicester and Leeds have the most (they are often in the opposition box) but given our stats for that are similar, Leicester really shouldn't have had 5 times as many penalties as us. I can remember at least 3 penalties which were stonewalls on Hirst that weren't given, and that's just one player. Once again, the myth that Ipswich are lucky and Leicester aren't doesn't stand up to scrutiny of the facts. 1 Leicester City - 11 2 Leeds United - 7 3 Sunderland AFC - 5 4 Middlesbrough FC - 4 5 Hull City - 4 6 Southampton FC - 4 7 Stoke City - 3 8 Birmingham City - 3 9 Norwich City - 3 10 Swansea City - 3 11 Bristol City - 3 12 Coventry City - 2 13 Millwall FC - 2 14 West Bromwich Albion - 2 15 Preston North End - 2 16 Cardiff City - 2 17 Ipswich Town - 2 18 Blackburn Rovers - 1 19 Huddersfield Town - 1 20 Rotherham United - 1 21 Plymouth Argyle - 1 22 Queens Park Rangers - 1 23 Watford FC - 1

We won at St. Mary's. We've been above both clubs all of the first half of the season until injury, suspension and illness kicked in.

I guess that one that hit the inside of the post was lucky but over the full game it was a deserved win. 62%-38% possession in our favour, 17 shots to their 10. Maybe we just look lucky on highlights reels or something, certainly doesn't feel particularly lucky to us!

I don't really care. It's mildly interesting though.

"Shit"? Despite the best start to any league season following promotion, ever?! And keeping pace with you lot for a fair old while (and ahead of the other relegated Prem clubs). And you not managing to beat us? Interesting!

Yeah agree the double deflection goal was pretty bizarre, but if I remember correctly it was at least hit on target. But yeah you can have that one! With the game at the KP I'd say first half you totally outclassed us, but 70 mins is a bit of a stretch. I think if the game had gone on another 10 minutes we'd have won that - said as much to my Leicester supporting mate and he agreed!

Hmm. Can't remember being particularly lucky in the BC one. We had 20 shots to their 11. Plymouth I think we were a little fortuitous to not have a player sent off (although looking at slo-mo replays I think it was the correct decision, but certainly seen them given usually). But anyway, we were getting called lucky on here well before those games! Doesn't bother me, kind of suits us if teams just think we're lucky. I just find it odd. We've had so many crap refs (I'm sure you have too) making crap decisions that nothing feels particularly lucky to us (and I know every teams' fans probably feel the same!) Having said all that, I think we were lucky with the pen last night, looked like the initial contact was outside the box to me, but we were 3-0 up at the time so didn't really affect the result. BTW, it's a good board this. Have enjoyed the chat and the mostly complimentary comments about ITFC!