Donwebbio

14 hours ago, wurmer said:

So given where we are, the state of the clubs finances including the huge debt and how leveraged we are, the state of the world thanks to the Orange Bafoon in Washington, the likelihood that we are down, the state of King Power and the issues they have had/are going to have, the absolute turnips in charge of the club on a sporting and corporate level, it’s looking very very grim.

 

The Brutal Truth

 

There is a lot of confusion about what happens to the club financially if we suffer back-to-back relegations. Here is the reality of our situation, stripped of all the accounting jargon:

 

1. We owe more than we own.

Yes, we have a £130m training ground and a £40m+ stadium. But our total debt is estimated to be over £200 million. If you subtract what we owe from what we own, the club is essentially in negative equity.

 

2. We owe banks, not King Power.

Top isn't the one demanding this money. King Power actually wiped out the massive loans we owed them by turning them into shares. Our current debt problem is because we’ve had to take out massive, high-interest loans from real banks (like Macquarie) just to survive the Championship. Banks don't forgive debt; they demand cash.

 

3. League One revenue is basically zero.

In the Premier League, we made £100m+ from TV. In the Championship, it's a fraction of that. In League One, total TV and league money drops to under £2 million. We absolutely cannot pay a £200m+ bank debt and a massive wage bill on £2m a year.

 

4. King Power can't really afford to save us anymore.

Because of the pandemic, changes in tourism, current world situation, King Power’s own duty-free business in Thailand has taken a massive hit. The days of Top writing £100 million blank cheques to bail out the club's mistakes are over.

 

What is one likely path?

If we go down, administration is actually quite unlikely because it would destroy the club's assets and King Power's legacy (plus it brings a massive points deduction). Instead, another option is:

 

• The Summer Fire Sale: The club will sell absolutely anyone with a heartbeat and a transfer value for pennies just to slash the wage bill and keep the banks off our backs.

 

• The £1 Sale: King Power will likely have to accept they’ve lost their infrastructure investment. They will quietly sell the club for a nominal fee (like £1) to new owners (likely an American investment group). The new owners get the stadium and Seagrave for "free," but they have to take on the massive £200m debt and the long-term rebuild.

 

 

TLDR: If we drop to League One, expect a total squad fire sale followed by King Power selling the club for £1 to whoever is willing to take on the debt.
 

The 2016 era is officially over.

 

I’m staggered that the happy clapper idiots still think that it is ok/will be ok because we will spend millions in a league one.

 

Absolute lunancy!

Brilliant summary thank you. Is the £200 million debt a genuine figure and is that info in the public domain? If so, is it all owed to Macquarie? The cost of servicing such a debt must be £15-£20 million per year.

3 minutes ago, Chelmofox said:

The biggest problem at the club is the one that handed him that power. It could be taken away in an instant, but it isn’t. 

I think that goes without saying. All the bad decisions have Rudkin's fingerprints on  Removing Rudkin is one move. Removing Top means selling the whole club and I can't see Top selling up.

How none of these 14 managers we have had haven't thought about playing 3 CB's at is strange. We probably don't have a good enough back 4 in truth so need something different. This formation takes away the worst part of Thomas' game with the ball in behind. Mav could be an option up top. Lascelles leadership qualites introducded. Worth a try:

Stol

Lascelles 

Nelson

Okoli

Thomas 

Winks

James

Skipp

Fatawu

Mukasa

Daka/Mavididi

If you start Jordan Ayew up top when he can't run, can't press, can't offer any tangible goal threat then you deserve to lose football games. It's a disgraceful piece of selection. We got away with it on Tuesday. Daka isn't the best but infinately better than Ayew.

He was my MOTM last night. His reading of the game is much improved and has all the raw physical tools and  technical abilities to be an elite CB. 

Tackles: 5

Clearances: 10

Interceptions: 2

Recoveries: 5

Fouls committed: 1 

Passes made: 44/51 (86%) - team avg 80%

Goals: 1

How about the recruitment department? That has escaped the reshuffle. As bad as Rudkin has been and of course he is a shambles of a DoF, as bad an owner as the Nepobaby has been, recruitment had been our major flaw. Maybe Glover compiles page after page of superb prospects from his global scouting network only to president them to Rudkin who looks at them briefly before popping them into the shredder and calling his favourite agent. But Glover must either be a flaccid yes man or a shite Recruitment head. These permanent signings have killed us aling with a fair few loan mistakes: 

Tielemans 

Perez

Praet

Justin

Hirst

Castagne
Fofana

Daka
Soumare
Vestergaard

Faes

Smithies

Kristiansen

Souttar

Winks

Coady

Hermansen

Mavididi

Cannon

Fatawu

Golding

Okoli

Skipp

El Khannouss

De Cordova-Reid

Ayew

Begovic

Vieites

Lascelles

Good clubs must target a success rate of 4 good signings out of 5 which provide a return on the pitch and generate profits for future signings. What is Glover's hit rate? 2 in 5? 

8 minutes ago, inckley fox said:

Well, it's as likely to work as anything else!

 

I understand the temptation to have three at the back. Wing backs, CFs... Not so sure.

Mukasa's role wouldn't really change in that system. He would stay play as a 10/support striker. The big change would be out wide. I would doubt it would suit Mavididi. Fatawu yes. Aluko has the athleticism to play there on the right. Left would be an issue. It would have to be Thomas and maybe it would suit him with an extra CB sweeping that side.

At least a double sub. We have no control at all.

Skipp has been poor. 

3 minutes ago, Paninistickers said:

I could live for a millennia and not see what little bobby socks does. 

 

Couple of flicks round the corner or easy lay offs.  Couple of challenges for 50/50 headers which he gets nowhere near. Largely chasing shadows. That's it. 

Yep another terrible signing. To think he was bought for the PL but looking not quite upto Championship level. Hopefully only playing so Mukasa can play on Tuesday.

Great cross - great finish! Thomas can put the odd great ball in but the other 90% of the time he is truly awful.

Just now, whoareyaaa said:

Mersin saying we look the better team so far 

We have had the better chances for sure but they have just had a big one from a corner.

1 minute ago, FoxinNotts said:

Can Aluko play left back?

He can and has played there but primarily a RB. I was wondering if there was a natural LB in the academy - got to be better than Thomas who is our clearest weak link.

Can we chip in and get some boots for Daka - the poor guy is always slipping over in those skates he wears.

11 minutes ago, splinterdream said:

If theres no cap, we would have skipp, vestegaard, winks, faes, thomas, hamza, BDCR all on big money.

 

You'd think for every football contract, there'd be a standard tiered contract clause, inserted to protect a club, its utterly ridiculous if there isnt 

Luke Thomas will be on 3 x more than the next starting LB. Relegation will be a major disaster for this club and still the owners won't sell.

27 minutes ago, LCFCJohn said:

I asked this before and I don’t think anybody answered. But relegation clauses, surely they don’t apply specifically to a relegation from a specially name league to another (so PL to Championship) and rather apply to any relegation during that contract. So if there was a 30% reduction on relegation from the PL to the Championship, surely the revised Championship wage would be subject to a further 30% upon relegation to L1?

The guys on the football finance podcast seemed pretty confident that they were both applicable to League 1 or capped at 1 relegation. Let's hope there is something because paying Skipp 50k in L1 is going to both embarrassing and financially crippling. I think they were talking on that same pod that our current expenditure would need to be cut by 60% to comply with the spending rules in L1. 

I had an interesting but heated conversation with a KPFC Loyalist this week. He labelled fans who wanted new ownership like myself arrogant and entitled. He thought that the success of 2016 and the cup win in 2021 should allow KP to stay as long as they wished to on the back of that. Then they same tosh about how no other club our size can match our achievements and would swap in an instant etc.

Interestingly, he was happy for Marti to be sacked on poor performance and was also happy for club employees to be held accountable except for those who have earned the lifetime right not to be. He just wouldn't entertain that Bot & Crudkin had no meaningful input into the success and in Crudkins case, has been directing football badly for a decade. What struck me was how much he believed in what he was saying, as if zero doubt had crept in during the decline of the past 3-5 years and if anything had hardened his view. 

And obviously we have just bumped up those running costs by adding a layer of middle management and pointless execs who add nothing. Oh and another year of Winks' massive salary if we can't shift him. There is also no relegation clauses to League 1 as it was seemed an impossible scenario. It's bleak whichever way you look at it.

If you take emotion out of it, the simple fact of the matter is we have too many of our first team players who are not at the level to compete in the Championship. In my opinion the following:

Skipp

Thomas

Okoli

Ayew

Daka

Ricardo 

Decordova Reid

Our best players are loan players who will be long gone in June. We are in this position because out recruitment has been poor for about 5 years or since Macia left the club. Our contract management has also been awful, absolutely awful. And, as at today - nobody has been held accountable for the above. The head or recruitment is still in place, the DoF is still in place and is actually in line for a promotion.

53 minutes ago, Ric Flair said:

Wonder if there's a chance he doesn't actually start here if we get relegated and are on the brink.

Absolute peak Top-kin behaviour to finally make a good, meaningful decision that will change the whole momentum of the football club - only to make it too late and relegation renders it void.

3 hours ago, coolhandfox said:

Rowett half time team talk vs Marti like night and day.

I imagine Marti is a bit of an oversharer at HT, talking at the players for 15 mins. The reaction today was very encouraging and would indicate that has kept the message simple, shared what he was not happy with and most importantly encouraged. I think it was Arsene Wenger who said that at HT he could only get over a maximum of 2 instructions. Anymore than that and players would have attention drift.

1 hour ago, CL Fox said:

What are they making? Chicken kievs and beans?

Goals and assists would be good.