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About Vardinio'sCat

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    Up the Narb
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    40 years-ish

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  1. 'Japan is an interesting test case. The growth of new cases is far behind what it statistically should be. It’s widely believed that this is because the Abe government is behind the curve in testing (not as far as the U.S., but no industrialized nation is as far behind in testing as the U.S.) in order to depress numbers and try to save the Olympics (which are toast, IMO). Certainly possible and quite in-character. But the puzzling thing is that there’s been no huge spike in hospitalizations, which you’d expect if it were simply a matter of underreporting - especially since Japan has the largest elderly population in the first world per capita. Why is that? The best guess right now is that the reason is that the Japanese are so good as following instructions. If you’ve spent any time here you know, it’s no myth - this is a society where service to the community over the individual is a religion and the people are literally obedient to a fault. It’s possible that the Japanese are so assiduously adhering to dictums about self-quarantine and limiting contact that they’re slowing the spread of COVID-19 dramatically. If that’s true (and there’s no way yet to know for sure) it’s evidence that containment measures other than Chinese-style lockdowns really do work. But only if people do their part as individuals. Alternatively, it's possible that there actually is a surge in hospitalizations and deaths, but the government is covering it up. That would be totally consistent for Abe, but I'm skeptical they could pull that off. Or we could be on the verge of an explosion, just delayed for some (inexplicable, frankly) reason. Or there could be something totally different at work. But it's clear something odd is happening here, just not what it is.' I think it is quite hard to cover up a large number of deaths, so I would think a high degree of compliance sounds more likely. It isn't going to happen like that here at this point, but maybe the lessons from other countries ahead of us on the curve will help. I'm sure there has been a reluctance to face up to widespread testing in many countries, but the Olympics is bound to be a massive headache. I read somewhere that a postponement might be a solution. They have to use that infrastructure at some point.
  2. I have a lot of respect for your contribution to this thread, you are clearly keeping up. Given your location I'm bound to ask how things are in Japan? you look to be about 2 days ahead of us on the pure infections/casualty numbers, but I guess Japan started a bit earlier than we did.
  3. Hmm, that is basically a guess, so I'll guess too... Game postponed due to Deeneys mum snogging Nadine Dorris last week.
  4. Man City vs Arsenal postponed as some of the players met the forest owner. This story has a momentum of its own, and I struggle to see the footy carrying on as normal.
  5. 160 dead yesterday, I'd just rather be proactive than reactive, as that is what has been working in places like South Korea.
  6. Better than Chillers going forward, but Ben has much more experience at a high level. I reckon JJ's excellent performance increases BR's options, which can only be a good thing.
  7. Absolutely, flatten the curve and all that... The idea that we shouldn't be too bothered because most victims are older is a fairly disgraceful view, imho. My brother-in-law is 53 but has asthma, should we write him off for economic expediency too? Where do you draw the line if you don't try and look after everyone. United against this common enemy we stand, divided we fall.
  8. Some of his turns and spins on the ball are pretty special you know, a top class midfielder finds space were others can't. Dennis is in his peak years, and seeing a fully mature player reminds me that we lose something if always focus on buying young.
  9. It'd be nice to finish the season with a win...
  10. As I understand it, the problem is not so much the reported death rate, as it is the number of victims (10%ish?- maybe) who need serious medical help/intensive care to survive. That potentially leads to a clogged up health system and tough choices. The Italian doctors in Lombardy are warning the rest of Europe to be prepared, and I think preparation (rather than panic) is the key concept. At least the UK has had plenty of warnings and some time, to see what has happened elsewhere. We like this veteran medic John Campbell, he is a calming no-BS voice of experience and reason, and he does have concerns about the rather reactive approach we seem to be using against this virus. https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCF9IOB2TExg3QIBupFtBDxg
  11. I just thought, one positive thing, it might help Chillers in his quest to find the confidence and form he had last season. At least no one would be moaning and groaning at him.
  12. I'm not saying we face imminent apocalypse, but check out how the Italian's are really struggling to keep people alive, 41 deaths in 24 hours. That could well be us in a week.
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