An analysis of the season (with some surprises!)

[Kilworthfox]

10 minutes ago, theessexfox said:

Expected goals is a statistical model calculating the probability of a shot going in from a certain distance, angle, pass, etc based on thousands of previous shots in similar situations, it’s pretty tangible and fact-driven

I am a big fan of sabermetrics, and the Moneyball ideas...that said! It does not work for football! There are far too many variables, unlike US sports.

 

With set pieces, where you have a somewhat controlled environment, yes this is something that could have a higher probability of accuracy, however, STILL these are not facts, hence expected in the name.

 

I expected Bale to come on and change the game, not because I read about him or looked at his averages over the last x games but because I know he is returning from a lack of football, injuries and form... I know a player when I see one, as the poster above says, there is an x factor that stats alone can not have a metric for.

[theessexfox]

12 minutes ago, Kilworthfox said:

I am a big fan of sabermetrics, and the Moneyball ideas...that said! It does not work for football! There are far too many variables, unlike US sports.

 

With set pieces, where you have a somewhat controlled environment, yes this is something that could have a higher probability of accuracy, however, STILL these are not facts, hence expected in the name.

 

I expected Bale to come on and change the game, not because I read about him or looked at his averages over the last x games but because I know he is returning from a lack of football, injuries and form... I know a player when I see one, as the poster above says, there is an x factor that stats alone can not have a metric for.

Yeah it’s expected because that’s how probability works, they’re not going to tell you exactly what is going to happen. Over time you’d expect stats to be a more reliable predictor of performance than gut feel - you’d hope that something in Bale’s recent numbers (highest goal per minute in the league for one thing) might reflect some of those things you mentioned and suggest he’s likely to do something. You’re right, they don’t explain or predict everything but they’re a useful metric to help analyse performance