The Masters

[l444ry]

The Masters - Round 2 Update, Stat On Sports

It is an odd statistic but no winner in the last 40 years has opened with a 73. Tiger Woods, Vijay Singh and Luke Donald are all in this camp this week. We do not believe it is enough to discount any of these players but it is a strong trend.

The question is can any of the players who shot more than 75 still win this tournament. No-one has done it in the history of the Masters. We feel Phil Mickelson (76) could still break this pattern due to his exceptional Masters pedigree but none of the other big names like Ernie Els (78) or Retief Goosen (76), Sergio Garcia (76) are any longer in with a chance.

As no-one since 1987 has won this event from outside the world’s top-15 except former champions we are quickly whittling down the list of potential winners. One in nine players who shoots more than six shots better than the field average on Thursday has gone onto win (11%) and as four players fit this category currently, there ought to be around a 43% chance of one of them winning.

There is also a strong pattern of the winner shooting 70 on Day One – it has happened in four of the last six years and in three of the seven years when the opening day field average was over 75.50. Despite both being outside the world’s top-15 David Toms and David Howell both look decent prospects at 27.0 and 28.0 respectively bearing all this in mind.

Of the leading quartet we believe Brett Wetterich will be the fastest faller as he has a poor record after good starts. He is in good form after coming second at Doral but he may be reaching the top of his peak.

As for Tiger, although we have a few reservations about his hopes this week, with his main rival Mickelson so far back, we feel he ought to be around an even money shot. His current price of 2.62 looks to offer some value. He has the best Friday record in the field so he should at least move close to the lead today.

Well, they got that right then.

[dandannieldanok]

I think if you are looking for an outsider to back, what about Justin Rose, after falling back from boy wonder status at the end of the last decade, he has reinvented himself. Led at halfway in 2004, perhaps if he manages to play well all weekend, you never know.......

Come on Justin, 3 more rounds to go.

[Leicester Lass]

Leaderboard going into the final round:

S Appleby Aus +2

T Woods +3

J Rose Eng +3

P Harrington Ire +4

Z Johnson +4

V Taylor +4

B Dredge Wal +5

You'd have to be brave to bet against Tiger me thinks.

[The Reverend]

Leaderboard going into the final round:

S Appleby Aus +2

T Woods +3

J Rose Eng +3

P Harrington Ire +4

Z Johnson +4

V Taylor +4

B Dredge Wal +5

You'd have to be brave to bet against Tiger me thinks.

Never won a major though unless he's leading going into the final round. Perhaps this'll be the time to change this.

I cant see any of the top 5 (bar Tiger) holding their nerve.

[Geo V]

Justin Rose has let a major chance slip by. In round one he only had 20 putts and since then he has missed so many short putts that should actually have seen him 2 or 3 under.

Tiger has played poorly, going in the water more times than a mermaid but still is amazingly just one behind the lead!

Ive just backed Mickleson at 27s and Harrington at 15s for miracles but today will be awesome viewing either way with so many people making mistakes and the course playing so difficult.