A couple of things here...Raonic is a very good server, but then Murray is probably the second best returner on the Tour. I think Murray would be able to do enough to negate Raonic's serve (like he has done with Karlovic in the past) and Raonic wouldn't be able to break through on Murray's service game, unless Murray was serving very badly indeed.
As for Cilic...the H2H is 7-1 in Murray's favour for a reason. Cilic doesn't have any weapons to really hurt Murray, as shown in most of their encounters. The one time he beat Murray (USO 2009), Murray was carrying a wrist injury which then put him out for three months after the event, so I honestly think that can be disregarded with respect to form. IMO Cilic will be less of a threat than Raonic - at least Raonic has the serve which could pose a threat.
Totally agree with you on the aggression though - he's at his best when he plays like that, as the Olympics showed.