ClaphamFox

It’s virtually impossible for the PL to win.

I’m beholding across social media right now - and my word, it IS joyous! 😂

Embargos are placed on press releases, not leaks.

Different accounting periods. Unfortunately getting away with it in one period does not mean you get away with it in the next one.

One possible explanation is that the sources for those leaked stories are usually contacts within the affected clubs, not the PL. If no clubs have (yet) been told they’re being charged, there won’t be anything to leak. Or maybe I’m just clutching at straws in the hope that nobody is going to be charged…

That twitter account is full of absolute shit. He posts the kind of alarmist bullshit rumours you’d expect a fan of a rival club to spread about us, yet he claims to be a Leicester fan. He’s a complete arsehole.

That makes sense, but I’m sure I read somewhere that the PL tends to avoid making these kind of announcements on match days - which would rule out tomorrow, Wednesday and Thursday. I can’t confirm that this is true, however…

"Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more, or close the wall up with our Leicester dead"

He's been recalled: https://dundeefc.co.uk/news/braybrooke-leaves/#:~:text=Dundee Football Club can confirm,times for the Dark Blues.

Unless those discussions have already taken place & the PL has reluctantly concluded that it is unlikely to win such a battle because the wording favours our interpretation? I don't think we're going to hear anything today. Last year the news was leaked by Ornstein on Sunday and was being widely reported on Monday morning before being formally announced by the PL at midday The silence is almost eerie this year...

This was published by a law firm last May. Apparently the PL has provided very little guidance for the independent panels to work from, making it very difficult to predict the level of deduction any team might have for a certain level of breach. However, at a basic level it seems that if you breach, the starting point is a three point deduction. After that, aggravating and mitigating factors can be considered which may increase or reduce the deduction. You'd assume that a large breach is one of the aggravating factors considered, while a very small breach might be a mitigating factor. I'm just guessing though... https://www.2harecourt.com/2024/05/30/psr-points-deductions-a-guide-to-the-lack-of-guidance/

It wasn't 'news'. A few football finance experts (Borson, Maguire, Swiss Ramble) made their own estimates and concluded we'd likely breach, but it wasn't based on any inside information or knowledge of our accounts. It was pure guesswork. Usually around now somebody (typically Ornstein) has posted actual information about which teams will be charged, but that hasn't happened yet.

The PL doesn't determine the deduction. The independent panels that deal with the sanctions have consistently imposed much lower points deductions than the PL asked for...

Last year they announced the charges against Everton and Forest on 15 January, which would make sense if they had 14 days to look at the accounts submitted by the 31st. Apparently in previous years David Ornstein has broken the news on the weekend before it is officially announced. Nothing from him - or anybody else - so far...

is it definitely today? Some reports are suggesting it will be either today or tomorrow. Others are just saying it will be 'this week'....

I’ve found my feelings about this have oscillated between optimism and pessimism, much like they do before a match day. I’ve sort of settled on feeling cautiously optimistic that we won’t be charged. Really hope I’m right - not just for our sake, but because there is such a widespread expectation among rival fans that we’re about to get royally shafted by PSR that the collective fit of rage and anguish if it doesn’t happen will be a joy to behold.

Sounds ideal.

He seemed remarkably relaxed when asked about the PSR stuff in his press conference on Thursday. He did not come across like a man who felt he’d been deceived.

What evidence do we have that Ruud was lied to?

This was published this morning on The Athletic. It suggests we may have a strong case in arguing for the £105m vs the £83m PSR threshold. https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6049650/2025/01/11/leicester-psr-loophole-wrexham-europe/ Kieran Maguire has picked up on it…

Not sure how much Tanner knows, but this seems like a plausible outcome to me.

Apparently TalkSport are about to run a segment on our PSR situation…

I've already posted this on the PSR thread, but on the WYS podcast last night Tom Collomosse was saying he thinks the club is deliberately holding back on transfers until the PL decides whether to charge us for a PSR breach. He said that even though any money we spend this window won't affect the 2021-24 period's accounts, it might look like we're taking the piss a bit if we splash the cash while under consideration for a PSR charge and could potentially swing the decision against us.

RVN sounded pretty relaxed about it in his press conference yesterday. It wasn’t clear whether that’s because he’s been reassured by the club that we won’t be charged or has already been told we will be charged and has just accepted it. Tom Collomosse was on the WYS podcast last night. He didn’t have much to add that was new, but he did say that he thinks the club is holding off on spending money this window because it doesn’t want to do anything to upset the PL while the decision on whether to charge us is still in the air. Obviously any transfers this window won’t affect the calculation for 2021-24, but if we’re perceived to be taking the piss,it might sway the decision against us. Or so Collomosse reckoned anyway.