Kasper, Oblak, De Gea: Are "line keepers" becoming obsolete?

[KingsX]

Kasper Schmeichel is an elite shot stopper.  Yet he doesn’t command his box to prevent shots from happening.  A stats geek is now putting numbers on both things.  A new story on Jan Oblak posits that even the best such “line keepers” may become obsolete. 

 

Jan Oblak saved more goals than any keeper in Europe last year. It's nothing new, either. Oblak's best season was 2018-19, when he saved 15.3 goals above average.

 

A goal is typically worth about 0.6 points in the table, which means these models are suggesting Oblak's shot-stopping has been worth somewhere between 7 and 9 points in his best seasons, which would make him one of the most valuable players in the world.

 

Well, has been one of the most valuable players in the world. This season? By the same logic, he's been one of the worst. Stopping shots is still important, but preventing shots is becoming crucial.

 

John Harrison has a PhD from Cambridge, where he was also the school's starting goalkeeper. "At what point should a goalkeeper engage during a 1-on-1? It's obvious that if the striker is 40 yards out with a player on their back, it's easier to make the save by waiting on your line and maximizing your reaction time. But it's also obvious if a striker is six yards out and clean through, you'll never save it by waiting deep and trusting your reactions. You will need to attack the ball, snuff out the shot and force the striker to smash the ball into your frame. "Statistics should be able to tell you at which distance engaging the ball becomes worth it."

 

Using his own hand-collected data, Harrison eventually started to answer some of these questions -- first on his Twitter account (@Jhdharrison1) and then for some clubs and players in Europe. While he found value in these shot-stopping models that loved Oblak, he knew that they were only rewarding keepers for making saves, not for preventing shots from ever happening.

 

"There are two other main actions goalkeepers can perform that are not shot-stopping actions,'" he said. "They are shot-preventing actions (i.e. claiming a cross or sweeping a through ball) and distributing actions (i.e. playing a pass to a teammate). Sweeping a through-ball and stopping a clear 1-on-1 has exactly the same effect on the keeper's team as saving a 1-on-1, so if you have a goalkeeper who is an expert shot preventer, they're still saving you goals, just in another way. My preliminary research has found that while shot-stopping is the most important part of goalkeeping, these other parts are still crucial and worth around half as many goals as shot-stopping."

 

Oblak has been without peer when it comes to the most important part of goalkeeping, but he's been one of the least active sweepers and shot-preventers. Per FBref, Oblak's stopped 6.4% of the crosses he's faced, which ranks in the 31st percentile among keepers in Europe, and he averages just 0.38 defensive actions outside of his penalty area per game, down in the 14th percentile.

 

As this chart of his defensive actions over the past two seasons shows, he's just rarely ever asked to venture too far out of his six-yard box:

 

 

"Oblak is what is known as a 'line goalkeeper,' similar to David De Gea -- a goalkeeper who seldom comes for crosses or sweeps up behind their defense, but is an excellent shot stopper," Harrison said. "He has consistently saved Atletico many goals a season and has clearly been one of the best shot stoppers in the world but his shot-prevention has always been pretty weak, and he often ranks in the bottom three keepers in LaLiga regarding sweeping and cross claiming. This has not affected Atletico negatively because their defense plays to Oblak's strengths and tries to cover up his weaknesses."

 

Harrison isn't sure that keepers like Oblak will be providing value to title-winning teams for too much longer.

 

"Given how the majority of top teams play with tactics that force goalkeepers to be exceptional shot preventers right now," he said, "I will find it interesting to see how long 'line goalkeepers' like Oblak will continue to play at the highest level."

 

https://www.espn.com/soccer/insider/spanish-laliga/story/4564155/laliga-star-jan-oblak-is-one-of-worlds-bestbut-are-line-goalkeepers-going-to-be-a-thing-of-the-past

 

[volpeazzurro]

57 minutes ago, KingsX said:

Kasper Schmeichel is an elite shot stopper.  Yet he doesn’t command his box to prevent shots from happening.  A stats geek is now putting numbers on both things.  A new story on Jan Oblak posits that even the best such “line keepers” may become obsolete. 

 

Jan Oblak saved more goals than any keeper in Europe last year. It's nothing new, either. Oblak's best season was 2018-19, when he saved 15.3 goals above average.

 

A goal is typically worth about 0.6 points in the table, which means these models are suggesting Oblak's shot-stopping has been worth somewhere between 7 and 9 points in his best seasons, which would make him one of the most valuable players in the world.

 

Well, has been one of the most valuable players in the world. This season? By the same logic, he's been one of the worst. Stopping shots is still important, but preventing shots is becoming crucial.

 

John Harrison has a PhD from Cambridge, where he was also the school's starting goalkeeper. "At what point should a goalkeeper engage during a 1-on-1? It's obvious that if the striker is 40 yards out with a player on their back, it's easier to make the save by waiting on your line and maximizing your reaction time. But it's also obvious if a striker is six yards out and clean through, you'll never save it by waiting deep and trusting your reactions. You will need to attack the ball, snuff out the shot and force the striker to smash the ball into your frame. "Statistics should be able to tell you at which distance engaging the ball becomes worth it."

 

Using his own hand-collected data, Harrison eventually started to answer some of these questions -- first on his Twitter account (@Jhdharrison1) and then for some clubs and players in Europe. While he found value in these shot-stopping models that loved Oblak, he knew that they were only rewarding keepers for making saves, not for preventing shots from ever happening.

 

"There are two other main actions goalkeepers can perform that are not shot-stopping actions,'" he said. "They are shot-preventing actions (i.e. claiming a cross or sweeping a through ball) and distributing actions (i.e. playing a pass to a teammate). Sweeping a through-ball and stopping a clear 1-on-1 has exactly the same effect on the keeper's team as saving a 1-on-1, so if you have a goalkeeper who is an expert shot preventer, they're still saving you goals, just in another way. My preliminary research has found that while shot-stopping is the most important part of goalkeeping, these other parts are still crucial and worth around half as many goals as shot-stopping."

 

Oblak has been without peer when it comes to the most important part of goalkeeping, but he's been one of the least active sweepers and shot-preventers. Per FBref, Oblak's stopped 6.4% of the crosses he's faced, which ranks in the 31st percentile among keepers in Europe, and he averages just 0.38 defensive actions outside of his penalty area per game, down in the 14th percentile.

 

As this chart of his defensive actions over the past two seasons shows, he's just rarely ever asked to venture too far out of his six-yard box:

 

 

"Oblak is what is known as a 'line goalkeeper,' similar to David De Gea -- a goalkeeper who seldom comes for crosses or sweeps up behind their defense, but is an excellent shot stopper," Harrison said. "He has consistently saved Atletico many goals a season and has clearly been one of the best shot stoppers in the world but his shot-prevention has always been pretty weak, and he often ranks in the bottom three keepers in LaLiga regarding sweeping and cross claiming. This has not affected Atletico negatively because their defense plays to Oblak's strengths and tries to cover up his weaknesses."

 

Harrison isn't sure that keepers like Oblak will be providing value to title-winning teams for too much longer.

 

"Given how the majority of top teams play with tactics that force goalkeepers to be exceptional shot preventers right now," he said, "I will find it interesting to see how long 'line goalkeepers' like Oblak will continue to play at the highest level."

 

https://www.espn.com/soccer/insider/spanish-laliga/story/4564155/laliga-star-jan-oblak-is-one-of-worlds-bestbut-are-line-goalkeepers-going-to-be-a-thing-of-the-past

 

Interesting stuff eh? I suppose it also helps explain our defensive success in our Premiership winning year. With the particular commanding back four we had at the time who loved to defend (admittedly very much aided by Kante), Schmeichel was left to do what he does best. For high balls into the box, in Huth and Morgan we'd got two of the best!

[eblair]

People should stop treating keepers like they are all the same. Like all other positions styles differ as the article outlines. Schmeichel is a keeper in mould of DDG & Oblak; we need to play to his strengths like the article outlines. We wouldn’t ask Danny Simpson to play like Ricardo. Probably was some of thinking behind the Vestergaard signing but he’s just pants.