Relegation Stats

[step]

42 points, 99.97 chance of relegation

44 points, 95% chance of relegation

46 points, 85% chance of relegation

48 points, 50% chance of relegation

50 points, 20% chance of relegation

52 points, 5% chance of relegation

54 points. 0.03% chance of relegation

Points and goal difference of teams third from bottom at end of season

Year.........Points........GD

04............ 51............ -20

03.............46............-17

02............ 49............ -29

01............ 48.............-9

00............ 46.............-25

99............ 47............ -25

98............48..............-1

97............ 46............ -21

96............ 52............ -20

95............ 46............ -25

94............ 51............ -17

93............ 49............ -19

Some real statistics

Average....48............ -19

Std dev.......2...............8

UCL..........55...............4

LCL...........42............-42

Based on the previous results, Statistically, it would not be unreasonable for a team with 55 points and a goal difference of +4 to be third from bottom and to get relegated.

Equally, It would be reasonable for a team with 45 points and goal difference of -37 to be forth from bottom and therefore not to get religated.

The odds of a team with more than 55 points being relegated are very slim. Equally the odds of a team with 38 points or less, not to get religated are very slim.

Only once has a team with more than 52 points been religated from this league.

[Sly]

Good post and an interesting read.

You only have to look at how open this division is this year and you can see that the points have been spread out more evenly though, no one single team has consistently won and walked away with the division as in previous years, therefore the teams at the bottom would potentially have more points.

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