step Posted 21 March 2005 Posted 21 March 2005 Points and goal difference of teams third from bottom at end of season Year.........Points........GD 04............ 51............ -20 03.............46............-17 02............ 49............ -29 01............ 48.............-9 00............ 46.............-25 99............ 47............ -25 98............48..............-1 97............ 46............ -21 96............ 52............ -20 95............ 46............ -25 94............ 51............ -17 93............ 49............ -19 Some real statistics Average....48............ -19 Std dev.......2...............8 UCL..........55...............4 LCL...........42............-42 Based on the previous results, Statistically, it would not be unreasonable for a team with 55 points and a goal difference of +4 to be third from bottom and to get relegated. Equally, It would be reasonable for a team with 45 points and goal difference of -37 to be forth from bottom and therefore not to get relegated. The odds of a team with more than 55 points being relegated are very slim. Equally the odds of a team with 38 points or less, not to get relegated are very slim. Only once has a team with more than 51 points been relegated from this league 42 points, 99.97 chance of relegation 44 points, 95% chance of relegation 46 points, 85% chance of relegation 48 points, 50% chance of relegation 50 points, 20% chance of relegation 52 points, 5% chance of relegation 54 points. 0.03% chance of relegation 53 points should be ok. Two wins and three draws. Easy
Nationwider Posted 21 March 2005 Posted 21 March 2005 44pts from 37 played averages out to 54pts from the full 46 games. So we're safe, and can look forward to next season.
Chimp Posted 22 March 2005 Posted 22 March 2005 Nice stats... but if any team is going to break the mathematical rules, guess which team it'd be.
MADLEVEIN Posted 22 March 2005 Posted 22 March 2005 cant you find out what happens to the team on 44pts with nine games to go and play in blue
bluefox Posted 22 March 2005 Posted 22 March 2005 cant you find out what happens to the team on 44pts with nine games to go and play in blue 81614[/snapback] The FA will retrospectivley apply the 'administration rule' dock them 10 points and force them into League 1. After all we are Leicester and no one likes us
step Posted 22 March 2005 Author Posted 22 March 2005 Maximum possible points for each team, and if lots of results went our way we could finish forth from top . But if they go agaist us we could still finish bottom. Sunderland.....................................99 Wigan Athletic.................................97 Ipswich Town..................................94 Derby County.................................85 Preston North End...........................85 Sheffield United...............................82 Reading..........................................81 QPR...............................................80 West Ham United............................80 Stoke City.....................................79 Millwall..........................................76 Leeds United..................................74 Burnley.........................................73 Wolves ........................................72 Leicester City................................71 Cardiff City...................................66 Watford........................................66 Crewe Alexandra..........................66 Plymouth Argyle............................65 Brighton & Hove Albion..................65 Gillingham....................................63 Nottingham Forest.........................62 Coventry City...............................62 Rotherham United.........................46 Based on the form over the whole season we should end up with 53,9 points and in 15th possition. Sunderland..................................... 92 Wigan Athletic................................. 89.3 Ipswich Town.................................. 85.6 Derby County................................. 73.8 Preston North End........................... 75.2 Sheffield United............................... 70 Reading.......................................... 70.5 QPR............................................... 67.2 West Ham United............................ 67.2 Stoke City ..................................... 66.2 Millwall.......................................... 64.8 Leeds United.................................. 62.1 Burnley......................................... 58.6 Wolves........................................ 60.1 Leicester City................................ 53.9 Cardiff City................................... 50.8 Watford........................................ 52.7 Crewe Alexandra.......................... 52.7 Plymouth Argyle............................ 51.7 Brighton & Hove Albion.................. 51.7 Gillingham .................................... 49 Nottingham Forest......................... 46 Coventry City............................... 48 Rotherham United......................... 29.2 Based on the recent form we should end up with 49.4 points and in 19th possition Sunderland..................................... 96.2 Wigan Athletic................................. 92.1 Ipswich Town.................................. 82.1 Derby County................................. 77 Preston North End........................... 76.6 Stoke City ..................................... 71.8 QPR............................................... 68.8 Reading.......................................... 67.7 Sheffield United............................... 67.6 West Ham United............................ 66.4 Leeds United.................................. 64.2 Millwall.......................................... 62.7 Wolves........................................ 61.5 Burnley......................................... 54.6 Gillingham .................................... 53.2 Plymouth Argyle............................ 52.4 Nottingham Forest......................... 50.8 Cardiff City................................... 50 Leicester City................................ 49.4 Watford........................................ 49.2 Brighton & Hove Albion.................. 48.9 Coventry City............................... 48.7 Crewe Alexandra.......................... 48.5 Rotherham United......................... 28.5 On the recent form the clubs around us and below us have very simular points to city
Chandler Posted 25 March 2005 Posted 25 March 2005 Looks sound Step - though I'll accept your computation on the various mathematical probabilities of relegation per points gained wihtout getting out the old calculator. There is a big black hole in your forecast though. It doesn't take into account the standings of the teams around us. The other thing that is hard to factor in to your equations is the size and possible future form of some of these sides (Forest and Coventry). My hunch is that the team in P22 will be going down with a record points tally. And that means that things don't look good for us. We are now on our worst run of the season, without a win for two months. And we have Mr Levein and his brilliant new signings to thank for that...
stez Posted 25 March 2005 Posted 25 March 2005 Looks sound Step - though I'll accept your computation on the various mathematical probabilities of relegation per points gained wihtout getting out the old calculator.There is a big black hole in your forecast though. It doesn't take into account the standings of the teams around us. The other thing that is hard to factor in to your equations is the size and possible future form of some of these sides (Forest and Coventry). My hunch is that the team in P22 will be going down with a record points tally. And that means that things don't look good for us. We are now on our worst run of the season, without a win for two months. And we have Mr Levein and his brilliant new signings to thank for that... 83199[/snapback] plus adams' failures
Simon Posted 25 March 2005 Posted 25 March 2005 Looks sound Step - though I'll accept your computation on the various mathematical probabilities of relegation per points gained wihtout getting out the old calculator.There is a big black hole in your forecast though. It doesn't take into account the standings of the teams around us. The other thing that is hard to factor in to your equations is the size and possible future form of some of these sides (Forest and Coventry). My hunch is that the team in P22 will be going down with a record points tally. And that means that things don't look good for us. We are now on our worst run of the season, without a win for two months. And we have Mr Levein and his brilliant new signings to thank for that... 83199[/snapback] plus adams' failures 83247[/snapback] But that doesnt fit Chandler's argument now does it?
Jonbluefox9 Posted 25 March 2005 Posted 25 March 2005 Looks sound Step - though I'll accept your computation on the various mathematical probabilities of relegation per points gained wihtout getting out the old calculator.There is a big black hole in your forecast though. It doesn't take into account the standings of the teams around us. The other thing that is hard to factor in to your equations is the size and possible future form of some of these sides (Forest and Coventry). My hunch is that the team in P22 will be going down with a record points tally. And that means that things don't look good for us. We are now on our worst run of the season, without a win for two months. And we have Mr Levein and his brilliant new signings to thank for that... 83199[/snapback] plus adams' failures 83247[/snapback] But that doesnt fit Chandler's argument now does it? 83292[/snapback] Stephen Hughes or Scot Gemmill? Paddy McCarthy or Martin Keown? Alan Maybury or Chris Makin? Out of those three examples I'd take the three Levein signings ahead of the Micky Adams signings. I will point out that the three Micky Adams signings were free transfers and the three Craig Levein signings cost money but Levein made that money by taking us on a run in the FA Cup.
step Posted 25 March 2005 Author Posted 25 March 2005 Chandler, Statistics are based on facts and are a means to asses the information available to predict the probability of an occurance in a controlled process. It is not based on crystal balls, astrology or your likes and dislike. Anology Chandler bases his arguments on crystal balls, astrology and his likes and dislikes The rest of us base or argument and historic facts.
Nationwider Posted 25 March 2005 Posted 25 March 2005 Stephen Hughes or Scot Gemmill? Paddy McCarthy or Martin Keown? Alan Maybury or Chris Makin? Out of those three examples I'd take the three Levein signings ahead of the Micky Adams signings. I will point out that the three Micky Adams signings were free transfers and the three Craig Levein signings cost money but Levein made that money by taking us on a run in the FA Cup. 83326[/snapback] I agree that these were good individual signings by Levein - certainly from a long-term view. At the moment though, it boils down to points on the board, rather than the bigger picture. My only criticism of Levein, and it is the only reason we are where we are, is his inability to find one or more goalscorers to add to the squad. De Vries was always going to be a gamble this season because of his fitness, and in reality, he's playing (except for the Big Two) against better defenders now than at Hearts. Moore has scored two goals in his career. I know the chances of stumbling upon the next Kevin Phillips/Andrew Johnson are slim, but I feel he's perhaps prioritised a little too much on defence and midfield. I think I'll be shot down in flames for this. I'm glad we've got Levein - I just hope he finds us some goals, or it could be a big misjudgement on his part.
Chandler Posted 26 March 2005 Posted 26 March 2005 Chandler, Statistics are based on facts and are a means to asses the information available to predict the probability of an occurance in a controlled process. It is not based on crystal balls, astrology or your likes and dislike. Anology Chandler bases his arguments on crystal balls, astrology and his likes and dislikes The rest of us base or argument and historic facts. 83333[/snapback] Step, since when have league tables been crystal balls or recent form guides astrology? If you care to look at my posting record you will see that I more than anyone else (including you) make use of statistics. As for the rest of you basing your arguments on historic facts...that's the greatest irony of all. Firstly, the majority of you can't argue as you struggle to grasp the most basic principles of logic. Secondly, almost all of you suffer from goldfish syndrome - an inability to remember anything that came before the last game. This seond 'irony' is another matter I raise constantly in my posts. And the fact that I have to keep on repeating it because peole like you forget just goes to prove how right I am. Before Xmas none of you would accept that we would end up in a relegation struggle. Except for one person. And when he called for 'The Levein' to be flushed all he got was abuse. Guess who that was then?
Jonbluefox9 Posted 26 March 2005 Posted 26 March 2005 Stephen Hughes or Scot Gemmill? Paddy McCarthy or Martin Keown? Alan Maybury or Chris Makin? Out of those three examples I'd take the three Levein signings ahead of the Micky Adams signings. I will point out that the three Micky Adams signings were free transfers and the three Craig Levein signings cost money but Levein made that money by taking us on a run in the FA Cup. 83326[/snapback] I agree that these were good individual signings by Levein - certainly from a long-term view. At the moment though, it boils down to points on the board, rather than the bigger picture. My only criticism of Levein, and it is the only reason we are where we are, is his inability to find one or more goalscorers to add to the squad. De Vries was always going to be a gamble this season because of his fitness, and in reality, he's playing (except for the Big Two) against better defenders now than at Hearts. Moore has scored two goals in his career. I know the chances of stumbling upon the next Kevin Phillips/Andrew Johnson are slim, but I feel he's perhaps prioritised a little too much on defence and midfield. I think I'll be shot down in flames for this. I'm glad we've got Levein - I just hope he finds us some goals, or it could be a big misjudgement on his part. 83336[/snapback] I think Levein wanted to sort things out defensively to begin with because if you don't concede then your more likely to win. Mark de Vries doesn't look on the pace at the minute but I'm confident that he'll come good in the end. He's got a good first touch and ball control but everyone can see that he doesn't win enough in the air for a man of his height. Even he'd admit that. He'll benefit from going away in the summer and coming back refreshed and prepared for some hard work in pre-season. I'm sure he'll look better next season. In training, the best striker that was working with the first team was Chris O'Grady. He seemed to find the net everytime from any angle. Even Blake was looking much improved but this was only training.
Chandler Posted 26 March 2005 Posted 26 March 2005 A lack of confidence up front and a lack of concentration at the back. They're the main problems. The team is easy on the eye. It's what Alan Hansen would describe as 'a moderate passing side.' But it lacks discipline. The opposition likes us because we let them play. We let them play through us. We will have to learn to win ugly. More players behind the ball, sitting deep. Something that Adams understood, (in the promo season at least) and Levein never will. And here's something for you lot to understand: 'an average long ball side will usually beat a moderate passing side, you have to be a damn good passing side to win matches.' No, that's not me. Alan Hansen again - and he's right.
MADLEVEIN Posted 26 March 2005 Posted 26 March 2005 alan hansen just sits there imposing HIS opinion on a game of football sipping coffee and eating boubon creams. if he is soooooo fantastic why doesnt he try his theorys out and go into management ?
step Posted 26 March 2005 Author Posted 26 March 2005 Chandler, Point one, my analysis uses the same information to compare all the teams and the tables I have produced are based on the facts as they stand. No black hole exists, They do take into account the standing of teams around us. especially the table based on recient results and the results are concerning. but there are five teams that have more to worry about than us. No one can predict the future, not even you. Its is equally probably that any team (Including city) could suddenly find a star striker that shoots them up the table. As things stand, based on facts the stats speak for them selves. As my first set of stats state it is quiet possible that a team with 55 points to get relegated and though it would be a record if a team with 51, 52, 53, 54 or 55 points gets relegated by not unexpected. What would be unexpected is that a team with 56 point to be relegated. because the odds would be like winning the lottery. For a P22 to end up with record breaking points all the teams above P22 must be playing better than P22. and the stats show that based on the seasons form or the short term form we are not the worst in the league so we should finish accordingly. But like I said we could still finish 4th or last. Either are not out side the realm of probability MA bought in most of the current squad. MA commited city to the current financial layout, MA spent over a millions on players CL has spent 200.000, CL has reduced the wage bill and brought in better replacements, CL has not found us a liniker but he has tryed, MA had more time, more money and he did not get uis one either. Buy CL has tried CL is trying to make a goal scoring team with no money, no time and little foundation to build on. CL has not had bundles of money to spend. Like it or not all the above are facts, and yes we could relegated but if you want to blame someone, get a grip and blame the root cause
Chandler Posted 27 March 2005 Posted 27 March 2005 Step, You still don't get it do you? MA had us in P11 after 12 games with his purchases. Now, no matter how few or how many other players his incumbent brings in, the very least that is required of him is to match what his predecessor did with the same players. Levein has abjectly failed to do that. In fact, Levein managed better earlier on with Adams crop of 'failures.' Then the rot set in. Players who shifted up a gear, fearing they were going to be axed, started to downshift. Levein started then to bring in his own crew. The results got even worse. No league win for over two months. But you lot were fooled by the FA Cup. Not me, too long in the tooth for that. The FA Cup is every lazy players favourite fantasy. If you believe that Levein has the right to get us relegated and be considered a better manager then Adams you lot are more stupid than even I thought you were. And if you lot think that dragging 'somebody elses' squad to the bottom of the table (especially when it was in the middle before) is acceptable management practice I suggest you thumb a lift in Doctor Who's tardis and get off at planet Zog.
MADLEVEIN Posted 27 March 2005 Posted 27 March 2005 chandler if this is what you feel then go to the milwall game and start calling for his head. see what response you get. im tired of your persistant slagging off of a manager who is trying to build a new team for the good of the club and im glad he didnt keep with adams duffers and keep us in p12 or whatever other mid-table position you would prefer. i would like to wager that mr LEVEIN will take this team higher than p12 by the time we play plymouth, and hopefully next season go on to better things.
step Posted 27 March 2005 Author Posted 27 March 2005 Chandler, it is you who does not get it. What you are saying is if you raced a world class marathon runner and after 1 mile he was 100 yards ahead of you, you would still be 100 yards behind after 26 miles wrong you would be 2600 hundred yards behind, plus the extra he gains because of his extra ability and that is where we are. After 11 matches the point difference is so little that two wins would have shot us near the top, and two loses would see us plumet to the bottom. Eleven matches in is not a reflection of the potential of the squad. What is a reflection of the squads ability is the fact that we was playing the worst football I have seen at city in since the early 90's. and that was and is mainly MA's fault. Simple as that. MA knows it that is why he left. From what little you know of CL do you realy think he would have bought in that pile of overaged, unmotivated players, in fact would any manager worth his salt have bought them. Ask your self why the season before, a whole squad of 23 players left city. and dont suggest the crap about "Get out clauses" 23 players left, 23 players, for fcuk sake think about it, Find me another club that has had 23 players leave in a season. I bet you cant. The left because: They have no faith in MA They did not like MA They did not respect MA They do not perform for MA MA was the problem What ever it was that happened last season between MA and the players, I dont know but I know that he distroyed the moral and motivation of a complete squad. and his fcuk you attitude ment he thought he could just buy in players and make it work. Well he was wrong. All he did was bring in another group of players some good some crap and he then set about destroying them. If MA had stayed we would be below gillingham, with all the players trying to leave us to get away from adams. With the players we had last season, we would have been on top of this league and on our way back to premier. MA screwed up in so many ways he know he had to go. He knew better than anyone else that he had fcuked up, and Daffy Ducked up big time. So chandler please stop using the results from a few games as your dislike for CL and look at the bigger picture and please start to appreciate how much shite MA, PT and DB left at city that needs sorting out, and then take an unbiased view of CL and see that he has a very difficult job ahead, which needs the support of everyone.
Steven Posted 27 March 2005 Posted 27 March 2005 Good post step, but wasted on Chandler. Chandler is the very embodiment of some of the direst evils that bedevil our society at the moment. He is incapable of changing his own agenda to fit the new reality so he is trying to rewrite reality and present this version of events as fact so as to fit his own agenda. Very Blairesque. Like Blair we are presented with a series of disconnected statements that support Chandler's "argument" or agenda. Like Blair there is such a gulf between Chandler's perception of the world and our own that we question his credibility. With good reason.
step Posted 27 March 2005 Author Posted 27 March 2005 Its a shame chandler is like he is because he does have a lot to say, if only he could do it objectavly. (if there is such a word)
Stuliasz Posted 27 March 2005 Posted 27 March 2005 Points and goal difference of teams third from bottom at end of season Year.........Points........GD 04............ 51............ -20 03.............46............-17 02............ 49............ -29 01............ 48.............-9 00............ 46.............-25 99............ 47............ -25 98............48..............-1 97............ 46............ -21 96............ 52............ -20 95............ 46............ -25 94............ 51............ -17 93............ 49............ -19 Some real statistics Average....48............ -19 Std dev.......2...............8 UCL..........55...............4 LCL...........42............-42 Based on the previous results, Statistically, it would not be unreasonable for a team with 55 points and a goal difference of +4 to be third from bottom and to get relegated. Equally, It would be reasonable for a team with 45 points and goal difference of -37 to be forth from bottom and therefore not to get relegated. The odds of a team with more than 55 points being relegated are very slim. Equally the odds of a team with 38 points or less, not to get relegated are very slim. Only once has a team with more than 51 points been relegated from this league 42 points, 99.97 chance of relegation 44 points, 95% chance of relegation 46 points, 85% chance of relegation 48 points, 50% chance of relegation 50 points, 20% chance of relegation 52 points, 5% chance of relegation 54 points. 0.03% chance of relegation 53 points should be ok. Two wins and three draws. Easy 81542[/snapback] Great stats there, I might name you the FoxesTalk honourary statistician for the remainder of the season with analysis like that
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