Relegation stats

[step]

Numerically we could still make the playoffs. But based on the results up to last week end. Statistically, the probability that a team will move up the league by six places in the time left is around 1 in 1000. So for a team to climb more than that the odds increase further

Only once has a team climbed 5 placed in the fizzy with 7 games left.

That dont mean it wont happen. It could, but it would be very, very unusall.

The good news is that no team has ever dropped by more the 5 places in the amount of games left, we would need to drop 7 places to get relegated which means the odds against us getting relegated are way in excess of 1 in 1000

We are staying up, We are staying up

[Fez of Mahrez]

Numerically we could still make the playoffs. But based on the results up to last week end. Statistically, the probability that a team will move up the league by six places in the time left is around 1 in 1000. So for a team to climb more than that the odds increase further

Only once has a team climbed 5 placed in the fizzy with 7 games left.

That dont mean it wont happen. It could, but it would be very, very unusall.

The good news is that no team has ever dropped by more the 5 places in the amount of games left, we would need to drop 7 places to get relegated which means the odds against us getting relegated are way in excess of 1 in 1000

We are staying up, We are staying up

86827[/snapback]

Appreciate the effort, interesting stats and all, but if you offer me 1000/1 on us to get relegated I will snap your hand off

[step]

You are right stats are only based on the historic data, which changes in the future. therefore we could move down.

What odds are the bookies offering. I would put money on us not getting relegated. But sods law always applies.

[Fez of Mahrez]

You are right stats are only based on the historic data,  which changes in the future.  therefore we could move down. 

What odds are the bookies offering.  I would put money on us not getting relegated.  But sods law always applies.

86864[/snapback]

Bookies' odds are always awful, especially for something like relegation in a division as tight as this given that the situation can change dramatically with one or two goals. No value in it at all.

[Stuliasz]

We are not going to get relegated. I have spoken to Leicester fans at the place I work who are more confident about Forest staying up than us. Now considering the huge gap between the two sides in the league I find that a tad ridiculous.

[Wellman]

Here's a more obviously stat for you, in Leicester's last 4 games, there has been 5 penaltys!!!

:thumbsup:

[step]

We will not get relegated. I asure you

[TrickyTrev]

Stats can say what you want them to say... we may be 7 places above relegation but this is an unusually close season and we are only 4 points off of the drop zone!

I don't think we will get relegated but the probability is nowhere enar 1000/1.

[Guest]

According to my calcualtions, Rotherham can't go above us, so that's one down, two to go......

[Scow]

As I've said in another thread, we shouldn't dismiss the notion of relegation until it's mathematically certain that we're safe. The most crucial statistic in all of this is that we're just 4 points off the drop zone - Games in hand mean sod all if you don't get any points from them. I don't think we will go down as I believe there are a number of teams that are much worse than us, but we shouldn't take our foot off the peddle...

[Frenzied]

Agreed. It seems that two or three teams below us are doing ok now ie the Trees, Covscum and Gillingham. Fortunately there are others in freefall though ie Watford, Brighton, Cardiff and Plymouth. It could be the games against the latter three that decide it for us.

[step]

Stats cant say what you want them to, they are based on facts. and the facts are that no team has ever dropped more than five places at this stage in a season.

The odds of any team dropping into the relegation from our possition are very, very slim. It does not mean it aint possible, it is just not very likely. and statistically they are about 1000: 1 in our favour, which makes a change.

[Steven]

Stats cant say what you want them to, they are based on facts. and the facts are that no team has ever dropped more than five places at this stage in a season. 

The odds of any team dropping into the relegation from our possition are very, very slim.  It does not mean it aint possible, it is just not very likely.  and statistically they are about 1000: 1 in our favour,  which makes a change.

88054[/snapback]

I believe you step.

[step]

Thank you steven, I dont think anyone alse does.

[shen]

Thank you steven,  I dont think anyone alse does.

88062[/snapback]

I believe you too, step

though I was never afraid that we'll get relegated...

[Shauno45]

would anyone swap say a 5-0 defeat against Brighton on Saturday for forest to go down? think forest are goin down anyways but hey!....

P W D L F A GD Pts

15 Leicester City 39 10 18 11 43 40 3 48

16 Plymouth Argyle 41 13 9 19 48 59 -11 48

17 Coventry City 41 12 11 18 51 63 -12 47

18 Cardiff City 40 11 13 16 43 44 -1 46

19 Crewe Alexandra 41 11 13 17 59 73 -14 46

20 Watford 41 10 15 16 48 55 -7 45

21 Gillingham 41 11 11 19 40 60 -20 44

22 Brighton & Hove Albion 41 12 8 21 34 60 -26 44

23 Nottingham Forest 40 8 15 17 37 57 -20 39

24 r Rotherham United 41 5 13 23 34 63 -29 28

who does everyone think will join rotherham n forest B) in League 1?? swap forest with brighton n thats how the bottom three will stay methinks.

[Fez of Mahrez]

Not exactly a stat but would just like to add this thought...

Nottingham Forest v Yeovil Town

[Chimp]

Not exactly a stat but would just like to add this thought...

Nottingham Forest v Yeovil Town

     

88806[/snapback]

bwahahahahaaaaa, owned.

[Chandler]

If we avoid the drop (as seems likely) you lot will be saying that 'Levein kept us up' won't you?

I would be less hostile to some of you if you had the honesty to admit that Levein has been a BIG disappointment to date and that the teams fortunes have worsened significantly under him. Then, I might understand the argument for giving him time to 'sort things out' though I might not agree with it.

It's interesting to see how some of you have managed your expectations since you hounded Adams out. First of all it was the play-offs you hoped for, then mid-table obscurity, now just staying up.

Needless to say, as some of you collect on your 150/1 relegation punts, Levein will be the blameless one to take us out of the First Division?

[Guest]

If we avoid the drop (as seems likely) you lot will be saying that 'Levein kept us up' won't you?

I would be less hostile to some of you if you had the honesty to admit that Levein has been a BIG disappointment to date and that the teams fortunes have worsened significantly under him. Then, I might understand the argument for giving him time to 'sort things out' though I might not agree with it.

It's interesting to see how some of you have managed your expectations since you hounded Adams out. First of all it was the play-offs you hoped for, then mid-table obscurity, now just staying up.

Needless to say, as some of you collect on your 150/1 relegation punts, Levein will be the blameless one to take us out of the First Division?

88814[/snapback]

Ok, you want honest opinions, here's mine.

Yes, I had hoped for better things, but it hasn't worked out that way. But seeing the state the squad was in, and seeing how much Levein has done to try and change things, with hindsight perhaps my expectations (I wouldn't want to speak for anyone else here) were overestimated. But seeing as we've had the Brian Little and Martin O' Neill years, where we overperformed at times, and the last promotion against adversity, is that any surprise?

I don't think we will be relegated this season. I'm hoping that once all the dead wood has been cleared, and CL has his squad in place, and the benefit of a pre-season schedule will help to produce a squad capapble of getting us promoted from this division.

I still maintain that getting rid of Adams was the right thing to do. The team is playing better football, there is more cohesion about the side, and the new players are more eager to perform than the one year mercenaries MA's signed. Improvements in the performances of some of the players CL inherited (like Gillespie, and for a time, Stewart) do make me wonder what was going on behind the scenes whilst Adams was here.

Adams was given over two years to do something with this club before the fans decided he wasn't making any real progress. He took a relegated Premiership side, and when he left, it was a mid-table Championship side that was boring to watch, and gave the fans no inspiration or hope. Because of that, I think Levein should be given more than 6 months before calling for his head.

I look forward to you twisting my opinion out of context to make me look like a "goldfish" or "fickle bonehead". Have fun!

[step]

If we avoid the drop (as seems likely) you lot will be saying that 'Levein kept us up' won't you?

I would be less hostile to some of you if you had the honesty to admit that Levein has been a BIG disappointment to date and that the teams fortunes have worsened significantly under him. Then, I might understand the argument for giving him time to 'sort things out' though I might not agree with it.

It's interesting to see how some of you have managed your expectations since you hounded Adams out. First of all it was the play-offs you hoped for, then mid-table obscurity, now just staying up.

Needless to say, as some of you collect on your 150/1 relegation punts, Levein will be the blameless one to take us out of the First Division?

88814[/snapback]

Ok, you want honest opinions, here's mine.

Yes, I had hoped for better things, but it hasn't worked out that way. But seeing the state the squad was in, and seeing how much Levein has done to try and change things, with hindsight perhaps my expectations (I wouldn't want to speak for anyone else here) were overestimated. But seeing as we've had the Brian Little and Martin O' Neill years, where we overperformed at times, and the last promotion against adversity, is that any surprise?

I don't think we will be relegated this season. I'm hoping that once all the dead wood has been cleared, and CL has his squad in place, and the benefit of a pre-season schedule will help to produce a squad capapble of getting us promoted from this division.

I still maintain that getting rid of Adams was the right thing to do. The team is playing better football, there is more cohesion about the side, and the new players are more eager to perform than the one year mercenaries MA's signed. Improvements in the performances of some of the players CL inherited (like Gillespie, and for a time, Stewart) do make me wonder what was going on behind the scenes whilst Adams was here.

Adams was given over two years to do something with this club before the fans decided he wasn't making any real progress. He took a relegated Premiership side, and when he left, it was a mid-table Championship side that was boring to watch, and gave the fans no inspiration or hope. Because of that, I think Levein should be given more than 6 months before calling for his head.

I look forward to you twisting my opinion out of context to make me look like a "goldfish" or "fickle bonehead". Have fun!

88840[/snapback]

Excelent responce Lisa. and Chandler you are right, if CL had not taken over the squad we would have been relegated

[Guest]

Well?

[C-man]

I think Levein should be given his contract time to sort it out and see where we are then. Theres no point of getting rid of a manager that has improved the perfomances, even though the results have worsened. Next year, if the performances stay the same, we will be much higher up the league, im looking forward to next year already (as long as we dont get relegated )