WhoDey Posted 9 March 2010 Posted 9 March 2010 I did a bit of an experiment as I thought we had a relatively easy run-in and wanted to test this theory and express it in numerical terms. This system is not perfect by any means and is not intended to be. I took the league table and assumed all games in hand would be drawn. I know this isn't perfect but takes into account the fact that there are games in hand, and gives us a standard value for points accumulated after the same number of games (in this case, 35). For example, Newcastle have played 34 and have 72 pts, so adding a point for their game in hand they have 73 points for the purposes of this experiment. On the other hand, Peterborough have played 34 and have 24. Adding a point for their game in hand, they have 25 points. I then looked at all remaining fixtures and divided that number by the number of games left to play to find the average quality of opponent. I did this for all teams I have deemed to be "in contention" with Leicester for 4th/5th/6th place. I have used a 6-point cutoff from 6th place which is arbitrary, but it would take quite an effort to overcome this. Assuming the number of points accumulated so far is indicative if the quality of a side, here are the strengths of schedule for Swansea, Leicester, Cardiff, Blackpool, Coventry and Sheffield United (a lower number means an easier run-in): Leicester 45.3 Swansea 45.9 Coventry 46.3 Sheffield United 46.4 Cardiff 47.2 Blackpool 48.2 So we do have the easiest schedule (by this metric). Now the most important question - can we capitalise on this advantage heading into the home stretch?
sw_fox Posted 9 March 2010 Posted 9 March 2010 I did a bit of an experiment as I thought we had a relatively easy run-in and wanted to test this theory and express it in numerical terms. This system is not perfect by any means and is not intended to be. I took the league table and assumed all games in hand would be drawn. I know this isn't perfect but takes into account the fact that there are games in hand, and gives us a standard value for points accumulated after the same number of games (in this case, 35). For example, Newcastle have played 34 and have 72 pts, so adding a point for their game in hand they have 73 points for the purposes of this experiment. On the other hand, Peterborough have played 34 and have 24. Adding a point for their game in hand, they have 25 points. I then looked at all remaining fixtures and divided that number by the number of games left to play to find the average quality of opponent. I did this for all teams I have deemed to be "in contention" with Leicester for 4th/5th/6th place. I have used a 6-point cutoff from 6th place which is arbitrary, but it would take quite an effort to overcome this. Assuming the number of points accumulated so far is indicative if the quality of a side, here are the strengths of schedule for Swansea, Leicester, Cardiff, Blackpool, Coventry and Sheffield United (a lower number means an easier run-in): Leicester 45.3 Swansea 45.9 Coventry 46.3 Sheffield United 46.4 Cardiff 47.2 Blackpool 48.2 So we do have the easiest schedule (by this metric). Now the most important question - can we capitalise on this advantage heading into the home stretch? I like your style, but there is no such thing as a mathematical formula for football or else all the bookies would be out of business! Its as much to do with luck ,and other off and on field factors that cannot be expected, as form of the teams throughout the season!
davieG Posted 9 March 2010 Posted 9 March 2010 Like us losing to Sheff Weds. mathematically would be viewed as an 'easy' game surely.
Donut Posted 9 March 2010 Posted 9 March 2010 Nice work on the formula, must have took a serious amount of putting together BUT To be fair, theres more chance of finding a needle in a haystack than there is predicting the results in the championship
Jordan Posted 9 March 2010 Posted 9 March 2010 I took the league table and assumed all games in hand would be drawn. I'm not sure it would have made much of a difference, and your system certainly saves time but a better method may have been to use would be to add a team's average points per game to their current total. You mentioned how you tacked on an extra point for Newcastle and Peterborough for their games in hand, but Newcastle currently average about 2.12 points per game while the Posh average about 0.88 I like your style, but there is no such thing as a mathematical formula for football or else all the bookies would be out of business! Its as much to do with luck ,and other off and on field factors that cannot be expected, as form of the teams throughout the season! But bookies are getting more sophisticated every day and make much more use of statistical models, simulations and various other mathematical models than ever before. Big, reputable sportsbooks don't just rely on beating their punters out of one game--they're in it for the long haul and are taking bets on many games every day. Freak results happen, so bookies not only have to predict accurately what will happen if that scenario were to be replayed a million times but also set odds that will assure them of a profit if the particular scenario in a game is replayed a many times over. This isn't something that can be done with just a hunch anymore, especially with the huge boom in online sportsbooks and all of the bets that come with it. The fellow that takes a few bets on the down-low from a handful of punters has got to operate and create odds differently than, say, William Hill, who takes in millions of pounds in bets from all over the world.
lcfc_sam_p Posted 9 March 2010 Posted 9 March 2010 surely it would depend on being at home/away? who needs the points more etc. for example by this theory someone like donny who are midtable are a harder team to play than peterborough, but peterborough need the points more..especially as the season goes on.
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