Guest MattP Posted 28 February 2013 Posted 28 February 2013 Tory vote appears to be collapsing. Seem to be hoping for second now. Big Nige swanning about the place picking up votes. I think the Libs hang on by about 1,500 over UKIP..
Alf Bentley Posted 28 February 2013 Posted 28 February 2013 Tory vote appears to be collapsing. Seem to be hoping for second now. Big Nige swanning about the place picking up votes. I think the Libs hang on by about 1,500 over UKIP.. What Labour-inclined tactical voters decide to do could be crucial. Although it's a weak area for Labour, they'd probably still expect to get up to 10,000 votes in a general election. Many of those will still vote Labour, but for a byelection I'd expect a couple of thousand to vote tactically...but who for? In the past, it would mainly have been the Lib Dems, but will that still be the case - or might they go to UKIP? Anti-EU, anti-immigration sentiments are by no means a Tory preserve. If one or more of the minor candidates has run a good campaign locally, they might get a surprisingly high vote, too. The ones least likely to benefit are the Tories, of course. Your prediction sounds reasonable, but I won't be astonished if UKIP pull off a surprise and win outright.
Guest MattP Posted 28 February 2013 Posted 28 February 2013 So it is, Happy Birthday. A cold one with Andrew Neil, sounds about perfect.
Alf Bentley Posted 28 February 2013 Posted 28 February 2013 Just noticed, Happy Birthday Sir Alf. So it is, Happy Birthday. A cold one with Andrew Neil, sounds about perfect. Thanks, lads! Mind you, I thought my next birthday was 3 years from tomorrow - must be getting senile. Off for that cold one....
Guest MattP Posted 28 February 2013 Posted 28 February 2013 Is this slander? I wonder if the Sinn Fein candidate, John O'Farrell, will lose his deposit in #Eastleigh.
Alf Bentley Posted 28 February 2013 Posted 28 February 2013 Is this slander? I wonder if the Sinn Fein candidate, John O'Farrell, will lose his deposit in #Eastleigh. I understand that "Sinn Fein" means "Ourselves Alone" in Irish. This rather insular sentiment seems to have more in common with the core philosophy of UKIP and the Tory right. If the Tories finish 3rd tonight, civil war breaks out and the Tory Right allies with UKIP, perhaps they could adopt that name....Sinn Fein, Ourselves Alone? Of course, like in the 80s/90s with Labour, it might put them out of office for a couple of decades, but I could live with 20 years of a Red-Green coalition, while the new "Ourselves Alone" party rant on about Europe and immigration in the wilderness...
Guest MattP Posted 28 February 2013 Posted 28 February 2013 Could be civil war or might actually force Cameron's hand into brokering some sort of deal with UKIP. He must realise he has no chance of winning a GE with them up his backside, he's got nothing to lose.
FoxyPV Posted 2 March 2013 Posted 2 March 2013 Rumours are circulating about a Tory leadership challenge if the Budget and May elections don't go well for them. http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/mar/01/tories-david-cameron-eastleigh-byelection It's madness (and I hope they continue )because a a lurch to the right will do them no favours come the general election.
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