Guest MattP Posted 27 February 2013 Posted 27 February 2013 We had a decent thread for this last time so we'll do another one. More Lib Dem lies (though at least this time the culprit will pay for them) have left the seat open. The Liberals have a majority of just under 4,000 and the Tories appear the closest challengers. A strong challenge from UKIP is expected. Liberals looked to have it wrapped up before more lying gave them some bad press the last week over Nick Clegg's sex pest friend, Cameron really doesnt seem to have put too much effort into this campaign which is strange giving it seemed to be a genuine chance. UKIP are flying late in the polls but they probably won't win, Labour have put a local 'celebrity' up who said he supported the Argentinians in the Falklands conflict. I'm going for a Lib Dem hold and UKIP to sneak past the Tories into second place. Hopefully Ray Hall gets a few votes as well. http://en.wikipedia....nd_the_campaign
Mike the Metal Ed Posted 27 February 2013 Posted 27 February 2013 I think despite everything, and I don't their candidate from what I saw on BBC News yesterday, the Lib Dems will hold the seat with the Conservatives second place. UKIP can point to their "support" all they like, but when it comes down to it, people vote for the establishment. Any thought of them gaining an MP out of this is little more than delusion.
Guest MattP Posted 27 February 2013 Posted 27 February 2013 Current Odds from Skybet. Eastleigh By-Election - Win Only Liberal Democrat 1/3 Conservative 3/1 UKIP 9/2 Labour 80/1 Any Other 100/1
Guest MattP Posted 27 February 2013 Posted 27 February 2013 I think despite everything, and I don't their candidate from what I saw on BBC News yesterday, the Lib Dems will hold the seat with the Conservatives second place. UKIP can point to their "support" all they like, but when it comes down to it, people vote for the establishment. Any thought of them gaining an MP out of this is little more than delusion. I think only Farage would stand a chance at the minute. If they came to some agreement with the Tories at the next election they could find themselves in a decent position. They will both claim it can't happen but I think Cameron would be quite wise to realise the danger they pose, in reality they could be costing him the seat here.
purpleronnie Posted 27 February 2013 Posted 27 February 2013 I would imagine UKIP will get a good amount of protest votes....unfortunately.
21st Century Fox Posted 27 February 2013 Posted 27 February 2013 Will campaign for a stuffed, brown envelope.
stevelcfc Posted 27 February 2013 Posted 27 February 2013 There are some quality party's campaigning for this.
Guest MattP Posted 27 February 2013 Posted 27 February 2013 I would imagine UKIP will get a good amount of protest votes....unfortunately. I think people have seen enough of UKIP now to realise what they are voting for if they do.
purpleronnie Posted 27 February 2013 Posted 27 February 2013 I think people have seen enough of UKIP now to realise what they are voting for if they do. I'm sure theres plenty of voters who would vote for them in a general election, but I believe by-elections often have a higher percentage of protest votes, and I would imagine the UKIP would get a good share of them.
Guest MattP Posted 27 February 2013 Posted 27 February 2013 I'm sure theres plenty of voters who would vote for them in a general election, but I believe by-elections often have a higher percentage of protest votes, and I would imagine the UKIP would get a good share of them. Well you have 14 boxes to choose from in this by-election so I don't think 'protest votes' will have too much influence on the result.
purpleronnie Posted 27 February 2013 Posted 27 February 2013 Well you have 14 boxes to choose from in this by-election so I don't think 'protest votes' will have too much influence on the result. Every vote has an influence.
Guest MattP Posted 27 February 2013 Posted 27 February 2013 Every vote has an influence. Doesn't really though does it? What constituency are you in?
ADK Posted 27 February 2013 Posted 27 February 2013 Shame we don't have AV so people could vote for whichever party they choose without losing their say in who wins the election.
Alf Bentley Posted 27 February 2013 Posted 27 February 2013 Current Odds from Skybet. Eastleigh By-Election - Win Only Liberal Democrat 1/3 Conservative 3/1 UKIP 9/2 Labour 80/1 Any Other 100/1 The fact that the Lib Dems are currently favourites to hold the seat is surprising, but seems to be down to the local Lib Dem-run council being very popular. They must be very popular indeed for it to outweigh the unpopularity of the Lib Dem contribution to national government among ex-Lib Dem voters nationally, the jettisoning of party policies AND the Huhne scandal. I wonder if the drip-drip of news coverage about the sex pest scandal and what Clegg & co knew about it (quite a lot by the sound of it) will encourage a few more Lib Dem voters to stay at home or protest-vote for UKIP? If so, the result could be very close indeed between all 3 leading contenders... From a lefty perspective, in the current political/economic climate, it is disappointing that Labour isn't making a better showing (though they'd never win in what is basically a medium-well-off satellite town of Southampton, as I understand it). From a Tory perspective, failing to win this byelection would be a very poor result, but there's a distinct possibility that they could end up 3rd behind Lib Dems and UKIP (and wouldn't entirely surprise me of UKIP do win....9/2 isn't very long-odds). Can you imagine the furore Cameron will face from his backbenchers if the Tories are 3rd...especially if UKIP win?! All we need now is for the jury to reach a verdict in the Vicky Pryce (Mrs. Huhne) retrial tomorrow!
Webbo Posted 27 February 2013 Posted 27 February 2013 It's a strange one this, would a Tory victory cause problems in the coalition?Is it better to keep the Lib Dems sweet and shore up Cleggs position as leader? I'm not getting the excuses in early, just thinking aloud.
Vacamion Posted 27 February 2013 Posted 27 February 2013 The Labour candidate appears to have even less chance after today, according to the Huffington post: One day ahead of the fiercely fought Eastleigh by-election, David Cameron ambushed Ed Miliband over past comments made the Labour candidate, comedian John O'Farrell, as opposition MPs mocked the Tory candidate's right-wing views. Taking advantage of a planted question at the start of prime minister's questions on Wednesday, Cameron called on Miliband to condemn O'Farrell. The prime minister said: "It is staggering that there is someone standing for public office who has said this: 'In October 1984, when the Brighton bomb went off, I felt a surge of excitement at the nearness of her demise and yet disappointment that such a chance had been missed.' "Those are the words of the Labour candidate in the Eastleigh by-election. They are a complete disgrace I hope the leader of the Labour Party will get up and condemn them right now." After Miliband refused to take the bait, he added: "Isn't it amazing the Leader of the opposition won't condemn someone who speaks up for terrorists." Returning to the theme later on, Cameron also quoted O'Farrell saying he had hoped Britain would lose the Falklands War. Cameron said: "This candidate, endorsed by the leader of the Labour Party, has a shocking lack of patriotism." Following PMQs, O'Farrell, who polls show is a distant fourth in the by-election, used Twitter to defend his past comments, made in a book published in 1998. @mrjohnofarrell John O'Farrell Re. BrightonBomb: I wrote an honest memoir and volunteered this fleeting bad thought from 1984 to illustrate how hatred can poison politics February 27, 2013 12:49 pm via Mobile Web (M5)ReplyRetweetFavorite With the polls tight and victory seen as crucial for both Cameron and Nick Clegg, the prime minister urged his MPs to "make their way to Eastleigh to support Maria Hutchings in the by-election campaign". His call to arms was mocked loudly and gleefully by Lib Dem Bob Russell who shouted "she doesn't support you" at Cameron. Hutchings is opposed to several positions held by Cameron, including being against gay marriage and wanting to withdraw from the EU. Former Tory leadership contender David Davis warned Cameron today that a third place finish behind the Lib Dems and Ukip would "be a crisis" for his leadership. Cameron's support for Hutchings, who is seen as something of a loose-cannon, was also mocked by Labour MP Chris Bryant who was told off by the speaker for shouting "Sarah Palin" across the chamber. John Bercow told Bryant: "The honourable member shouldn't keep yelling 'Sarah Palin', she, at least, is not a candidate in the Eastleigh by election."
Alf Bentley Posted 27 February 2013 Posted 27 February 2013 Shame we don't have AV so people could vote for whichever party they choose without losing their say in who wins the election. Agreed, but unfortunately the small-c conservative British public spoke in the referendum - and the pro-AV did a poor job of arguing their case - so it'll be off the agenda for a few years now. Personally, I'd favour single transferable vote in multi-member constituencies, with more power and resources devolved to local councils and communities at every level (subject to legal oversight)....and maybe an unelected (or indirectly elected) 2nd chamber of experts in different fields (health, education, law, business, international affairs etc.) to replace the House of Lords...not sure about that last bit, though!
Alf Bentley Posted 27 February 2013 Posted 27 February 2013 It's a strange one this, would a Tory victory cause problems in the coalition?Is it better to keep the Lib Dems sweet and shore up Cleggs position as leader? I'm not getting the excuses in early, just thinking aloud. I'd have thought anything other than a Tory win will increase the back-bench Tory discontent about Cameron's leadership - and that has more potential to make life difficult for the coalition (backbenchers pushing for more right-wing policies at precisely the time when the Lib Dems are trying to appear less "Tory" a couple of years out from the election). Given the Lib Dem ratings in national opinion polls, they're not likely to want an early general election as they'd probably do very badly, even if they're doing OK in certain seats (like Eastleigh) for local reasons. Of course, a bad Lib Dem result could increase the chances of someone like Vince Cable taking over from Clegg, but surely he'd be more likely to attract back voters who've currently defected to Labour, not the Tories...
Webbo Posted 27 February 2013 Posted 27 February 2013 I'd have thought anything other than a Tory win will increase the back-bench Tory chuntering about Cameron's leadership Chunterers chunter, there's no chance Cameron won't be PM until after the election.
ADK Posted 27 February 2013 Posted 27 February 2013 I would have thought Tories would be most worried about their performance relative to Ukip.
Deucalion Posted 27 February 2013 Posted 27 February 2013 I think people have seen enough of UKIP now to realise what they are voting for if they do. They come in purple, they come in blue, they come in red, white and blue... but they pretty much all amount to the same thing.
ADK Posted 27 February 2013 Posted 27 February 2013 I see Ukip as a single-issue "we want out the EU" party with a helping of social conservatism thrown in. Would be interesting to know the average age of their voters as i suspect they would turn out to be older conservatives.
Guest MattP Posted 27 February 2013 Posted 27 February 2013 I'd have thought anything other than a Tory win will increase the back-bench Tory discontent about Cameron's leadership - and that has more potential to make life difficult for the coalition (backbenchers pushing for more right-wing policies at precisely the time when the Lib Dems are trying to appear less "Tory" a couple of years out from the election). Given the Lib Dem ratings in national opinion polls, they're not likely to want an early general election as they'd probably do very badly, even if they're doing OK in certain seats (like Eastleigh) for local reasons. Of course, a bad Lib Dem result could increase the chances of someone like Vince Cable taking over from Clegg, but surely he'd be more likely to attract back voters who've currently defected to Labour, not the Tories... It will add some pressure onto him in more ways than one, firstly if they can't take a seat like this in a by election after what the Lib Dems have gone through he can forget about an overall majority in the next election, secondly people will have to start seriously speaking about some sort of deal with UKIP if they are clearly costing them seats, all the posturing aside it would be daft not too. On a sidenote don't Labour select some classy candidates?, no matter how much my hatred for Gordon Brown was I wouldn't fantastise about his children being left fatherless. Let alone actually write it down and broadcast it.
Deucalion Posted 27 February 2013 Posted 27 February 2013 I see Ukip as a single-issue "we want out the EU" party with a helping of social conservatism thrown in. Would be interesting to know the average age of their voters as i suspect they would turn out to be older conservatives. Older conservatives, at least those that represented the Party rather than those just muttering intollerences behind twitching curtains, were actually nearly human. The evil rot set in with Thatcher.
Mike Oxlong Posted 27 February 2013 Posted 27 February 2013 Liking the Beer, Baccy and Crumpet Party.
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