Alf Bentley

Select the one with the biggest, most violent Dad.

I bet Boutros Boutros Ghali would have coughed up, if he hadn't died. Likewise Gary & Phil's Dad, Neville Neville

I think we're all a bunch of ignorant, pig-headed arseholes who'll carry on arguing, fighting and fvcking everything up forever more......but don't let me dilute your optimism! As I think someone said, whatever happens we get on with the hand we're dealt (while complaining about other people's hands, abusing the dealer etc.).

Here's footage from a recent Inner Circle team-building trip to the Caribbean. Finnegan is the bloke with dreads and a top hat:

Any option would presumably have to obtain 50%+ of the vote. Either 2 votes on the ballot: 1) Leave v. Remain; 2) May's Deal v. No Deal, if Leave wins the first vote Or a single transferable vote: 3 options (May's Deal, No Deal, Remain), vote 1 and 2 for favourite & second favourite options; if no option has 50%, votes for least popular option are transferred between the other 2?

Then, if there is some sort of a divorce deal agreed, we spend the next 5-10 years haggling over the details of the future EU-UK relationship....with the long-term future of the Irish border still an issue. I had to find the old quote by Churchill, post-WW1: "The whole map of Europe has been changed … but as the deluge subsides and the waters fall short we see the dreary steeples of Fermanagh and Tyrone emerging once again" Anyway, lots to talk about as, regardless of outcome, the Brexit debate continues for the rest of all our lives.....specially dedicated to @Izzy Muzzett

Agreed, but Parliament would have to pass a 2/3 vote calling an election or a majority no-confidence vote in the Govt, triggering an election (or potentially a power handover to another PM - Gove, Javid or Corbyn?). Mind you, even if she wins a Tory party confidence vote in her leadership, if her Brexit policy is defeated she might feel obliged to resign and let someone else pursue an alternative (though she might plough on...).

@MattP In contrast to what I just said about Parliament calling a referendum to avoid No Deal, New Statesman suggests that this is within the control of the Govt, not Parliament: https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2018/11/it-s-true-there-no-majority-no-deal-brexit-may-not-matter May will doubtless continue her mantra until the vote on her deal: My Deal or No Deal (though even she has mentioned No Brexit as an option). If her deal is rejected, though, would she or a replacement PM be able to refuse a parliamentary vote on a second referendum if it seemed to have majority support? There would be outrage both in parliament and among the public, if so. That is presumably why Grieve was saying that if the Govt refused a vote on a referendum, that was the one thing that could produce a general election: i.e. Tories who supported a referendum rather than No Deal would vote no confidence in their own govt in those circumstances.

Ken Clarke was almost welcoming this prospect & couldn't believe the ERG people would be so stupid, as he was convinced that May would win the confidence vote - keeping her safely in post for another 12 months.

I agree that the initial outcome of May's deal being rejected is to leave us on track for No Deal - and that this is partly why May still thinks she might be able to get her deal through. That vote probably won't allow No Deal to be blocked. But then, faced with the looming reality of No Deal, Parliament will be able to find a way to avoid it - and there does seem to be a large majority for that. I'm imagining subsequent legislation to call a referendum and to apply for an Article 50 extension. In those circumstances, it's surely very likely that the EU would agree an extension, with the prospect of the UK potentially staying in the EU. Of course, there's still the case pending before the ECJ (early December, I think?) as to whether the UK can unilaterally reverse its Article 50 notice - which I can only imagine it doing with popular approval at a referendum, not parliament alone. Although technically the first referendum wasn't binding, the vast majority of people - including most Remain voters - accepted the result of the referendum, while regretting it (me included). But that assumed there would be some vaguely sane negotiated outcome. Vast majority acceptance assumed (a) a Deal, not No Deal; (b) A deal that was vaguely sane, rather than signing us up indefinitely to a customs zone and abidance by EU rules with no say in those rules. That changes everything. As you know, while I voted Remain, I've always opposed a second referendum until now. I also don't assume that a referendum would produce a Remain outcome - and do believe that a vote for either May's deal or No Deal would be accepted. Whatever happens, there is bound to be ongoing strife to some degree - and maybe there'd be another referendum 5, 10 or 20 years down the road, but I couldn't imagine it happening sooner than that.

You might be right. But one or other "unlikely scenario" will become reality - because there is currently no "likely scenario". You're right that only a small number of Tories actively like the idea of a 2nd referendum. But it seems likely that MPs will face a choice between Election, Referendum and No Deal. I'm making certain assumptions: (i) that May's deal will be rejected; and (ii) that the EU will only consider renegotiation and/or an Article 50 extension if the UK has made beneficial changes to its Brexit strategy (e.g. accepting a Norway deal, including free movement, or a Canada deal that resolves the Irish border issue, maybe accepting checks on trade across the Irish Sea.....possible but unlikely, as neither seems to command a parliamentary majority). I don't see No Deal happening as almost all Labour/Opposition MPs reject it and so do a very large number of Tories, probably a majority. Corbyn would prefer an election, but I think even fewer Tory MPs want that than would want a referendum. I haven't heard a single Tory MP ask for an election. I'm not suggesting that a majority of MPs support a second referendum as a great solution. But faced with an effective choice between No Deal and Referendum, with the clock ticking down, I can see them opting for the latter.

I'm not well-informed about parliamentary procedure, but possibly a quicker route to a second referendum...... ? - May's deal defeated - Labour no-confidence vote defeated (Tories/DUP don't want election) - motion/amendment for 2nd referendum passed with support of Tory Remainers/Pragmatists who want to avoid No Deal ??? (All this might depend on the Speaker's rulings on what is permissible - and on the legal case before the ECJ and the willingness of the EU27 to allow the Article 50 extension that would probably be needed)

Latest odds: 4-5: Despite universal opposition & leadership challenges, she's fighting on 5-4: She's appointed Michael Gove as Brexit Secretary 3-1: She's appointed Michael Bublé as Brexit Secretary 7-1: She's resigning with immediate effect 10-1: She enjoyed the dancing so much she's signed up for Strictly 20-1: She's contacted Barnier to renegotiate Brexit 25-1: She's opting for the Swiss model - exercising freedom of movement to migrate to a remote chalet in the Alps 50-1: She's going into the Celebrity jungle with Harry Redknapp 100-1: She's calling a referendum & defecting to the Labour Party 500-1: Dilly ding, Dilly dong, she's to be Claudio's assistant at Fulham 1000-1: She plans to provide "strong and stable government"

Will they? They'd need the support of 159 MPs. There are about 80 in the ERG, aren't there? They'd need the support of an awful lot of Tory pragmatists/Remainers.....might happen, if MPs generally realise that there's no chance of her deal passing parliament. But, apart from anything, Tory moderates would realise that they risked a much more Hard Brexit leader if the vote goes to the membership. Could be someone vaguely acceptable to both sides, I suppose..... Javid? Gove?