Alf Bentley

It's not often you see a repping full house on here..... Like, Thanks, Laugh, Confused & Sad for Jon. Hat's off, sir!

This should spice up the latter stages of the election campaign: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50436252 "US President Donald Trump has confirmed he will travel to London 10 days before the UK general election. He will be in the capital with the first lady for the Nato summit between 2 and 4 December. Mr Trump will also attend a reception at Buckingham Palace, which will be hosted by the Queen. The president has previously been criticised for voicing his opinions of British political leaders, including Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn".

Yes, I meant "FOM will be ending for Brits going to EU and EU citizens arriving in UK". Sorry if that was unclear due to the Britocentricity (or whatever the word is) of my expression.

Shocking performance by the Welsh Nationalists, but good to see @Finnegan MP hold his seat.

What can you expect from the son of a former Tory minister, eh, lads?

Yes, I appreciate that it's not crucial to every Leave supporter. But my impression was that it was a major issue for most - and THE issue for some. It'll be ending, anyway, won't it - assuming we leave the EU and Single Market?

Surprising poll from Sky / YouGov: https://news.sky.com/story/general-election-majority-of-voters-want-to-keep-free-movement-after-brexit-says-poll-11861365 56% of voters want freedom of movement to continue after we leave EU 28% want it to stop. Even 33% of Leave voters want freedom of movement to continue, according to poll - and 41% of Tory voters. Er, I thought stopping freedom of movement was one of the main reasons for Brexit? Not the only one, but one of the main ones....

Although polls still have the Lib Dems well up on their performance in 2017, they could lose seats from where they are now (after incoming defectors) if most of their ex-Tory/Lab MPs lose. If their current poll rating (15-16%) proves accurate, their MP numbers are highly unpredictable. Because they'll probably get a much bigger swing in SE Remainer seats than in SW Leave seats, but the latter often have smaller majorities. So they might narrowly take a lot of seats or narrowly miss a lot. I think your colleague who wants a Lab majority is going to be disappointed. No chance, unless Boris is caught stealing funds from the NHS and the Doncaster flood relief fund to pay for a sex orgy with Barnier, Juncker & Tusk. Knowing him, he'd probably get away with that, anyway. Yes, the precise maths could really matter. But if the Tories are just short of a majority, they'd have options other than DUP or BP (possible that the BP would have no MPs and the DUP fewer than now, anyway). Some minor concessions - such as allowing a parliamentary vote on the Future Relationship deal & potential extension - could well bring enough Labour MPs from Leave seats onside to pass the WA. He also has the option to offer the SNP an IndyRef2 in exchange for their support....wouldn't put it past him (or them) after the way he shamelessly shafted the DUP. As you know, though, I reckon that a Tory majority could well lead to an ultra-Hard Brexit or No Deal, anyway, given his promises not to extend the transition period etc. He might have been bullshitting as usual when he promised no extension, but his ERG crew and heavily Hard Brexit membership won't see it that way....and he'd find an extension hard to sell to the electorate. I suppose that a very small majority might not lead down that road, as there are still a few Tory moderates who haven't left or been expelled....

Or maybe he's just chickened out of chickening out? Send the people in chicken suits round, anyway, as they've been sorely lacking in this election so far - and Boris ran away from the hippies in Glastonbury. Also standing in Uxbridge are Lord Buckethead and Count Binface....a battle to savour. I see the Lib Dem is to be listed as "Liberal Democrat - To stop Brexit".....definitely putting all their eggs in one basket, aren't they?

Boris has run away from Glastonbury, reportedly. He'd been discussing breasts and the Incredible Hulk with some school kids, went to buy a sausage roll in a bakery but got chased out of town by a horde of druids and hippies. Something like that, anyway....

It made it to the twilight world of Youtube.....

As their output was for listening and they were known for their moptops, surely The Earwigs would've been even better?

Yes, national polls 4 weeks out don't tell us much about the final result. National polls on the eve of the election tell us more - but still not everything, in a constituency-based election with big regional/local variations in swing. Btw. your Trump-Clinton graph was pretty accurate, wasn't it? It shows national vote - and Clinton won that, but lost the election because she lost key states and therefore the electoral college. Similarly, it's perfectly possible that the Tories could win the UK national vote by 5-6% but not win a majority (e.g. if the SNP win most Scottish seats on a tiny UK vote %, Labour gets its vote out in marginals & a lot of Remainers vote tactically). Current Tory poll leads of 8-12% seem too big for them not to win a majority, even with regional disparities, but if it shrinks a bit......game on.....possibly!

As others have said, final polls showed the Brexit & Trump votes being close. True, they predicted a narrow win for Remain & Clinton, but they weren't far out. The margin in most national polls (8-12%) definitely suggests a Tory majority.....but I wouldn't make such assumptions from national polls if the lead in most polls slips to 4-7%. Because there are going to be big differences in what happens in different regions - and how regional differences offset each other will determine the result. It's already reasonable to assume that: - The Tories (& Labour) will lose seats to the SNP in Scotland - The Tories will lose seats to the Lib Dems in the South - The Tories will gain seats from Labour in the North/Midlands - The Tories will probably gain a few seats from Labour in Remain areas (due to Lab->LD switchers - Con vote falling, but Lab vote falling more & LD vote not rising enough) The current lead suggests Tory gains will outnumber Tory losses by enough to give them a majority.....but they absolutely need that to happen. If they even "break even" & lose about as many as they win, they'll probably be out of office. Could be a mess if the Tories do "break even", Labour lose a lot of seats and the SNP & Lib Dems gain a lot.... If the Con-Lab gap does close, reliable regional & particularly polls for marginal constituencies should tell us a lot. Worth bearing in mind the 2017 "starting point" (national vote): - Con 42.3% - Lab 40.0% - LD 7.4% - SNP 3.0% - UKIP 1.8% - Green 1.6%

Shocking stuff in there, Davie.... Shopping? Supermarket Sweep?!? That would make a good quiz question: "Who's the other person mentioned in the National Anthem, besides the Queen and God?".....Field Marshal George Wade, apparently