Alf Bentley

10 DUP. About 75 Tory rebels last time, but about 7-10 were Moderates, who'd presumably not switch to support May. So, unless she gets the DUP and almost all the ERG (unlikely), she'd need some extra defectors from Labour - possibly quite a lot. Only a few, if any extra Tories would turn their backs, I suspect. Even so, the numbers don't look good for her so far - a smaller, but still significant defeat, I'd guess....and she only has 2-3 days to turn it round. Would the DUP even prefer May's Deal to an alternative? Although they're pro-Hard Brexit, their main objection to May's Deal was the possibility of N. Ireland being treated differently from the rest of the UK. That wouldn't be the case with a Soft Brexit. Also, there's a lot of opposition to Brexit in N. Ireland, including local buinesses and a significant minority of Unionists (that's how N. Ireland voted 56% Remain at the referendum - vast majority of Catholics/Nationalists + significant minority of Protestants/Unionists).

There was something about the parliamentary "session", but I think parliament would have to specifically declare an end to the existing session and the start of a new session for that to apply. More likely to come down to a decision as to whether May's Deal has changed, I suspect. Anyway, she has to persuade 75 MPs to switch sides (ignoring abstentions) before it's worth her while trying.

In theory, it has to be different - though she could claim that the extension makes it different? In practice, it's hard to imagine Bercow refusing to allow it to be debated if May is close to having the numbers for it - and she presumably will only bring it back if that's the case. I'm just guessing, though, and Bercow is a massive egotist - even if I agree with his earlier decision - so who knows what he might do to give himself a bit of a swagger?

I checked afterwards. What Benn said seems to be correct: first phase of indicative vote tomorrow, second on Monday. However, May's Deal could be brought back on Thurs/Fri, if Bercow allows it and if she thinks she has the votes.... Better leave it there for now, before we piss everyone off.

Yes, it's possible that the EU could backtrack and agree a longer extension even if our situation is still unclear - but we'd have to request that, wouldn't we? The EU could informally let May know that it was prepared to be flexible - but she (or some successor) would have to make the request, and that would be massively controversial in the UK - requesting a longer extension, agreeing to pay more money to the EU, agreeing to take part in Euro elections etc. Would May or any other PM make that request, particularly with no plan in place. I'm also not sure that the EU is as desperate to avoid No Deal as you suggest. They'd definitely prefer it, but not at any price - including the price of everlasting disruption of EU politics and EU-UK relations? If we requested a longer extension with no plan, it would only take 1 country to veto that. Many EU nations would not be much affected by a No Deal Brexit (directly, at least) - and might feel that Brexit is distracting from more important projects. Some EU nations would be more badly affected (Ireland, Netherlands, Germany to a lesser extent) but the EU could easily legislate to offer them extra funds to compensate for damage. Benn was talking about the second phase of indicative votes happening on Monday. Don't know if that's confirmed? If so, any third attempt to pass May's Deal would have to happen before that process has ended - so that boat might have sailed for the ERG/DUP?

But to avoid No Deal, we have to either agree an acceptable solution (May's Deal or an acceptable alternative) or request a longer extension. Otherwise, we leave with No Deal on 12th April. If we don't agree an acceptable solution before then and don't request a longer extension, there's nothing the EU can do to prevent No Deal on 12th April, even assuming it wants to. Am I right or am I missing something? It's not just about the Euro elections, either. If we agree an acceptable solution that requires us to take part in the Euro elections, I'm sure they'd agree that. But I cannot imagine them accepting the situation just dragging on interminably, dominating EU politics forever with no sign of a solution on the horizon. They have plenty of other problems to focus on, so need to see light at the end of the tunnel to agree an extension, surely?

Would that necessarily stop No Deal, though? If May's Deal is not passed this week, then Brexit Day is due to be 12th April. For it to be later, by 12th April our Govt would have to ask the EU for a longer extension, agreeing to take part in Euro elections, and the EU would have to agree. Now, if our Govt did that, the EU would probably (not definitely) agree that extension....but would our Govt make that request? As I understand it, if a no-confidence vote is passed, parliament has 14 days to see if someone else can form a govt commanding the confidence of the house. It could be past 12th April before an election was even called. We'd be relying on May or some interim PM (Liddington?) making that request, wouldn't we? Likewise, Article 50 could be revoked before 12th April but that would be massively controversial and would also require the Govt to act or be somehow forced to act. I hope No Deal is prevented, obviously, and there's a clear majority in parliament opposed to it......but it could still happen by accident, I think. The EU see it as the most likely outcome and I don't think they're complete idiots.

A Brexit point that I read the other day and that doesn't get much attention..... - The SNP, Plaid, Lib Dems, TIG and Greens all stand to benefit electorally from their pro-referendum stance. That's mainly at Labour's expense - due to its divided Remain/Leave electorate, it would struggle to follow suit except as a last resort. Thus, those hoping for an agreed alternative via indicative votes might need those smaller parties to forego party electoral advantage, unless Labour backs a referendum. Agreement might be impossible.... Maybe something like the Kyle/Wilson idea might get cross-party support (May's Deal or another deal approved provisionally, subject to a referendum) or either Labour or the smaller parties might capitulate at the last minute. Otherwise, if the smaller parties adopt a purist Remain/Referendum stance for party advantage, we could end up with No Deal by default, or with May's Deal surprisingly getting through by the end of this week with Labour support (most of the ERG/DUP will only back it if we look set for a Soft Brexit/Referendum, I presume?).

Last night, I started a long post trying to get my head round all the potential outcomes......but thought better of it, for all our sakes! Isn't this the gist? - If May's Deal isn't passed this week, then it's dead and the potential 22nd May extension is gone with it - If an alternative can be agreed via indicative votes, that could go ahead via a longer extension....but only if we take part in Euro elections and if Parliament persuades/forces Govt to request extension and legislate (probable) and the EU agrees to the extension and potential plan (possible, not certain). - If nothing is agreed by 12th April, it's No Deal on that date In theory, Parliament could vote to revoke Article 50 before 12th April, but that must be one of the most unlikely scenarios. Again, in theory, the EU could open up the Withdrawal Agreement, but that is also a highly unlikely scenario. Other stuff could intervene (confidence vote, general election, new interim PM, Govt. of national unity).....but wouldn't affect the fundamentals: May's Deal agreed this week OR Alternative Path agreed by 12th April OR No Deal. Is that right?

As I've mentioned, I have a song to cover any subject mentioned on here......including Pringles, sour cream and chives flavour:

Mostly before my time at LCFC, but Frank Sinclair sometimes played centre back, didn't he? 5ft9 according to Wiki...

Tend to agree. But you were challenging us Remainers about the compromises we'd make. If you want to challenge the Govt, you should address your request to "David Cameron, Shepherd's hut in the back garden of his estate, Home Counties, England" or c/o Mrs. T. May, 10 Downing Street... (Before anyone takes me too seriously, I am aware that the EU and the pre-2010 Labour Govt also bear some responsibility for the EU-UK disconnect - but Cameron had been PM for 6 years by the time of the referendum & May hasn't done much to address grievances since then).

Yes. I was just being silly - an under-rated pastime. Replace Barnes, Maddison and Gray with Albrighton, Silva & Diabaté. Then re-sign Kante to replace Hamza, Cannavaro for Evans and the job's done.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fabio_Cannavaro Full name Fabio Cannavaro Date of birth 13 September 1973 Place of birth Naples, Italy Height 1.76 m (5 ft 9 in) Playing position Centre-back I'd have quite liked to see a Huth-Cannavaro partnership at LCFC.

- Reverse Tory cuts to labour inspections. Increase inspections/monitoring to crack down on employers using illegal migrant labour or abusing system via low pay, charging migrant gangs for substandard, multi-occupancy housing etc. - Legislate to ensure that employers have to make jobs available to locals, not just imported migrant gangs, and enforce implementation of this properly - Implement existing EU rules allowing restrictions on freedom of movement re. benefits (e.g. 3-month ceiling if not employed); even though the "migrant benefits scroungers" claim is false, it is widely believed so action would help. - Reverse the decision to get rid of training bursaries for nurses, so that more natives take up the profession, rather than importing foreign nurses trained at the expense of their own nations. Fund this by reversing tax cuts for big business and high earners. - Likewise, put serious funds and work into increasing the number of apprenticeships, rather than importing ready-trained tradespeople from E. Europe, then having agencies pay them below market rates, boosting the profits of the big players in construction who make large donations to the Tory party - Fund councils properly so that they can pay decent rates to care homes, so that they can pay decent rates to staff, rather then employing migrant labour on the cheap or going bust - Legislate to increase job security so that fewer people live in fear of losing their livelihood and/or homes from one month to another - Introduce teaching on EU institutions/functioning into school citizenship classes so that the next generation are less ignorant than current adults: e.g. so that they know that most EU decisions are not "imposed by Brussels" but are taken by the Council, comprising national govts, often with a national veto - Make it a priority to stimulate new investment in areas devastated by the loss of old industries so that fewer people lack opportunities, feel abandoned and are inclined to seek scapegoats such as the EU and immigrants - Work with the EU, MEPs, political parties and the media to create a better connection between MEPs and those who elect them, and a higher profile for EU initiatives as few people have a clue what the EU does (at least partly the EU's fault) - As Carl said, work within the EU to shift its priorities: less cash for farming, more for deindustralised or underdeveloped regions; more redistribution to grow markets in S/E. Europe; more democratic connections; less corruption & gravy train etc. - Ensure minimum pay rates remain reasonable and encourage unionisation so that jobs currently deemed unacceptable "low-paid jobs" are seen as an option by Brits (e.g. social care, farm labour, catering) There's a few compromises to be going on with, Jon. What compromises are you offering to us lot, almost half the population, your 16.1m fellow citizens who voted Remain. Any Soft Brexit compromise or just a demand like "Go hard or go home" chucked over one shoulder, your moneybags hanging over the other shoulder as you head for your flight to Aus? Hope it goes well for you, btw. I hope to visit Aus again some day.