Gerard Posted 5 February 2015 Posted 5 February 2015 For a bit of fun and to gage our results I've worked out the points expectation for the bottom eight over this weekend from the betting markets. I'll update after Sunday's match. Leicester------- 1.51 Burnley--------- 1.44 West Brom----- 1.29 Crystal Palace- 1.19 Sunderland----- 0.9 QPR-------------- 0.89 Aston Villa------ 0.44 Hull--------------- 0.27 Obviously the three relegation favourites (Burnley, Leicester, QPR) will need to exceed their points expectation over the rest of the season to stay up or one of the other five will need to under perform to their points expectation. So as you can see the team that really needs to win out of the bottom eight is us but even Palace will under perform if they get a point.
Renart Posted 5 February 2015 Posted 5 February 2015 Hi, can you explain how the expectation is generated? The number is based on a total predicted to stay up and if we over perform or another team under performs then that number will go down for us. It isn't just based on league position though is it? It is worked out against who we are playing etc.. ie this is a big game for us as it is against one of our nearest rivals for relegation. Whereas, Hull are in the bottom three but are playing away at Man City. Sorry, a little confused but interested.
veezeeblue Posted 5 February 2015 Posted 5 February 2015 these numbers dont make sense to me first we need to have a points total for safety which I reckon is 34pts at the mo given the 8 clubs ponts per game so so far then the points required per game should be based on that we need 18pts to reach 34 thats 1.2 points per game -ppg palace need 0.73 per game bottom line - they can afford to draw ... we can't or if we do our ppg goes up put it another way we need 6 wins or equivalent to stay up the way it stands now if the bottom 3 all start winning games the target will increase above 34
Gerard Posted 5 February 2015 Author Posted 5 February 2015 Hi, can you explain how the expectation is generated? The number is based on a total predicted to stay up and if we over perform or another team under performs then that number will go down for us. It isn't just based on league position though is it? It is worked out against who we are playing etc.. ie this is a big game for us as it is against one of our nearest rivals for relegation. Whereas, Hull are in the bottom three but are playing away at Man City. Sorry, a little confused but interested. Expectation is measured by the betting markets which is as good a gage you will get. Leicester are expected to take three points 40.6% of the time One point 29.6% of the time and zero points 29.8% of the time Therefore the average return we will get from the match is 1.51 points. On the other hand Hull beat Man City 5% of the time Draw 11.7% of the time And lose 83.3% of the time Their expected points total for the match is 0.27 points. This is just this weekend's games expected points, not anything long term. If we draw and Hull lose then they will have got the advantage over us this weekend as they lost 0.27 points and we lost 0.51 points on expected return.
Westerby Posted 5 February 2015 Posted 5 February 2015 Points expectation is simple ( rather I should perhaps say straight forward ). Three points are available for any match but the closer the result is likely to be, the more likelihood of a draw and only two points being earned. One takes the bookmakers odds ( any will do as they only need to be relatively accurate assessment ) and convert the odds to percentages. Then add the three figures H D A to achieve a book figure of 100% - again if not comfortable this will not make a lot of difference. Assume 50% for home 30% draw 20% away for an example. That means the home side should get 3pts 50% of the time and 1pt 30% of the time = 0.5*3 + 0.3*1. That is 1.80pts. The away dide's expectancy is 30% draw and 20% win so 0.3*1 + 0.2*3. That equates to an expectancy of 0.90. The overall expectancy for this match would be 1.80 Home and 0.90 Away. As stated earlier it will never be 3.00 due to the occasions when the match is drawn. Now for a simple exercise to that for every match till the end of the season and Leicester , Burnley , QPR and Hull would end up with between 33.5pts and 34.5pts with all other teams reaching at least 36. Looks like Gerard was a faster typist !!!
Westerby Posted 5 February 2015 Posted 5 February 2015 Expectations are the tool used by everyone ( including bookies , Gerard and myself ) who does not think they can successfully forecast the result of EVERY match. They can not be EXACT by definition but over a period will be more accurate than trying to set a fixed figure of 0 , 1 or 3 points for each team in each match. Neither is it as quick. However , going on a match by match basis , where do you suddenly decide to give Burnley or Leicester a point or points? Remember that with predictions you can't give Leicester 3 pts for winning this week AND give Palace 1 pt because you think they may get a draw.
Snooty Fox Posted 5 February 2015 Posted 5 February 2015 these numbers dont make sense to me first we need to have a points total for safety which I reckon is 34pts at the mo given the 8 clubs ponts per game so so far then the points required per game should be based on that we need 18pts to reach 34 thats 1.2 points per game -ppg palace need 0.73 per game bottom line - they can afford to draw ... we can't or if we do our ppg goes up put it another way we need 6 wins or equivalent to stay up the way it stands now if the bottom 3 all start winning games the target will increase above 34 Think you misunderstood him he's not saying we need 1.51 per game to stay up, that would probably take us up to mid table, it's two different things. According to bookies we're expected to get 1.51 points from Palace on Sat (if they played it 100 times we'd have 151 points) but overall we're expected to go down so we'll have to exceed bookies expectations between now and the end of the season. Personally I threw the towel in a while back and am just holding out for the cup now. 2 wins from Wembley, 3 from Europe (probably) and 4 from the greatest season in our history regardless of the league.
veezeeblue Posted 6 February 2015 Posted 6 February 2015 yeah thanks sort of get it now but as I'm not a betting man (more of a stats addict) so I am not familiar with their expectations sorry you have given up on the league I wont until it's mathematically impossible with 18 points to safety (at the mo) and 6 of the bottom 8 still to play plus a couple of mid table teams late in the season IMO we have much more than a fighting chance personally I still believe we are going to make it and stay up though like you and most my dreams are of wembley and an FA Cup victory Hey why not dream of both !
Gerard Posted 8 February 2015 Author Posted 8 February 2015 We had a bad weekend and finished bottom of the points expectation table. Palace did the best and with now 9 points more than us seem un-catchable for us unless they have a shocking end to the season. For all intents and purposes (for us at least) then Palace are out of the relegation fight. Crystal Palace +1.89 Hull +0.73 Sunderland +0.1 West Brom -0.29 Burnley -0.44 Aston Villa -0.44 QPR -0.89 Leicester -1.51
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