DJ Barry Hammond

I can see why too - it looks like a lot of people have focused on tactical voting to get the stories out - and Reform don’t have enough ‘known’ candidates to take full advantage of the Tory collapse.

Question: Does that previous rule of; “you lost, so shut the **** up!” count for elections as well as referendums?

I question how the Conservatives get past 100 seats at the moment… they’re losing huge former majority seats.

The exit poll is looking… questionable. Could be some significant variance.

Channel 4 have done a good job so far tonight haven’t they? I’m hearing the BBC’s showing is awful? Could it be that LK is another casualty of the election tonight?

Having lived up that way, it’s grim up there - but the locals are proud people and a lot of them have a great resentment towards Labour.

I think you need to understand that there are some parts of the country (mainly in the North) where the balance of immigration changed almost overnight - in such a distinct proportion to the local population that it created divided areas and not very nice community tensions. So don’t just tarnish people as racists - it’s a label that helps nothing within the immigration debate and not only entrenches existing opinion - it actually firms wavering opinion on the issue.

Yes - but to be frank - there was an open opportunity to do so. I think you could make a case that Labour have won by default. That the Conservatives nuked themselves - but through their campaigning they also killed Labour’s appeal / message. However - given that, this could show a problem for Reform / Farage in that how do they attract a further share of the vote to take them to the next level in 5 years time - given Labour will then have incumbent advantage and in theory, shouldn’t look as incompetent as the Conservatives did this time around?

Tories were at around 6k too meaning the combined wasn’t enough - but Lavery is a well known Labour candidate. That said - 8% swing to Reform from Labour 😳

What the **** is the Blyth returning officer wearing! I assume it’s ceremonial 😂

Look - Farage is a very good public speaker - and his campaign was fun, had a buzz about it. His message also hits deeply into young people’s concerns in particular areas. Also - those Minecraft videos - which he didn’t even do - massive!

One of the expected Reform seats is Lomas (Barnsley) who was expelled for “comments”.

Anyone watching channel 4 - judging by the voters they spoke to, it sounds like the Tory attacks on Labour were cutting through. The problem they clearly had was they couldn’t back it up with a positive case to persuade people to vote for them for another term. It also suggests Labour’s message wasn’t that clearly received… but that might not count against them long term - low expectations isn’t a bad place to start from.

Speaker - and probably the Northern Ireland guys.

He’ll be demanding a referendum on electoral reform - that will be his play.

• Planning laws. • Parliamentary / Lords reform • Resolve Doctors strike • Something on immigration. • Criminal Justice / Prison measures (jails are full, so this is in urgent need of attention).

Sunak expected to keep his seat I believe - rated at 99%

Plus Tice is a clear dick - he doesn’t have the ‘charm’ of Farage.

I’d expect a couple in the North-East - Hartlepool / Sunderland. Maybe Boston (strong Brexit vote). Maybe a seat out on the North West coast?

I haven’t spotted any panicked Labour social media activity today - which to me suggests they feel comfortable in their position. The Conservatives on the other hand - some MP’s in particular have been at it all day. Think Nigel’s relaxed too based on his activity - although success for him can be counted at anywhere above 2 seats and a midterms vote share.

2 confirmed breaches, 1 further pending and a host of clubs using ‘workarounds’ show how difficult these rules are to account for.

You say that, but one of the clear problems with PSR is how difficult it will be to account for. Ultimately it requires projecting your profit and loss position - not only across one season, but across multiple seasons given the rolling 3-year criteria. Having transfer fees that are amortised across the length of a contract doesn’t make this any easier either - it creates lingering draggy costs. And of course this is all against income variables that can change dramatically depending on performance and other factors. This stuff then becomes even harder due to the covid years where income flows were interrupted / deferred and you see huge upswings in other areas of your cost base due to inflation. Oh - and we had the European seasons during all this too, making estimating what a base ‘Premier League income only’ year would be like very difficult indeed.

I think there’s also a case to say it’s always worth exhausting all appeal avenues against the Premier League because they’re that incompetent you could well find they’ve broken their own rules during the process.

I can’t see how this happens. Nigel has effectively parked his tanks on Conservative lawns and sent volley after volley for almost 20 years - so would they actually contemplate letting him in the party? Well, ok, maybe they would because they’re going to be pretty desperate… … but then does Nigel’s ego allow him to join them, especially if it’s not for the top job? He’s leader and chief dividend recipient of his party (ahem, Private Company!), the Conservative brand is in the toilet and the demographic of support he’s built under UKIP / Brexit Party / Reform is not a natural fit for the Conservative party. Even one of his main MO’s of being anti-establishment is incompatible to what the Conservatives are… making a great replacement much more likely than an integrated union.

I get the sense Starmer knows this - which is why stuff like Planning Reform will be a focus early on, something that could have a big long run impact but realistically doesn’t cost much to implement.