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DJ Barry Hammond

Politics Thread (encompassing Brexit) - 21 June 2017 onwards

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15 hours ago, MattP said:

Can anyone explain what the point of this Corbyn - May debate is???

 

Is she hoping he is going to look so ridiculous discussing it that people are going to think it's a good deal? It's not even the electorate she needs to convince, it's parliament. It's a crap deal and nothing she can say is going to change that.

 

Why on earth Jeremy Corbyn is taking it on I have no idea either unless he thinks he can try and turn it into a wider debate on British politics and he can play to his base spending the hour complaining about cuts. He's already shown he doesn't understand it last Sunday.

 

None of it makes sense.

 

There were rumours of her expecting to lose the vote, but then relying on the pound and stock prices slumping to panic MPs into supporting her deal second time round, if it's brought back with or without minor changes.

This TV debate might play into that. She knows that many voters are saying "just get it over with", so she may hope that a TV debate with Corbyn will play into that mood, making it seem she's offering the only viable, clear deal.

 

Logically, as regards debating the options properly, it makes no sense. She herself has said that the only alternatives are her deal, No Deal or No Brexit (though some would argue with that). Yet neither No Deal nor No Brexit would be properly represented in a May/Corbyn debate.

 

The willingness of the broadcasters to screen this debate is democratically dubious. May wants a debate to promote her policy. Corbyn wants a debate to promote his policies (probably on issues wider than Brexit). So the broadcasters are acquiescing in the desire of the 2 big parties to promote their policies, while partly excluding Brexit opinions that command a lot of support (No Deal and No Brexit).

 

If the debate happens as a two-way face-off, I presume they'll have questions putting the No Deal and No Brexit case, but that's very much second best with May & Corbyn's cases presented as the main options. Admittedly, it would be difficult to arrange a fuller debate due to the divisions within the 2 main parties (e.g. can't see them agreeing to have May, Davis, Corbyn & Umunna) and the demands for multiple parties to be included - if the DUP were included, both the SNP and Sinn Fein would have a case to be included, not to mention the Lib Dems and UKIP.

 

If a May/Corbyn debate happens, I doubt it'll change much. May will probably score a few points by having a more detailed knowledge of Brexit & a clearer stance, Corbyn will probably score a few points by linking Brexit to other issues like austerity and highlighting the way that the deal potentially ties the UK to the EU via the backstop. I can't imagine many viewers changing their minds, though. Neither of them is likely to prove inspirational or disastrous.

 

May seems to be studiously refusing to answer questions about any Plan B, if her deal is defeated. I'm guessing that she hopes to use fear of No Deal/No Brexit, plus pressure from business, markets and punters after the deal is first defeated, to scare MPs into supporting it second time round, having calculated that parliament won't support a referendum or election and that the EU can be relied on to rule out any renegotiation. Presumably she sees a TV debate helping in this? :dunno:  

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Anyone who thought leaving the EU wouldn't have it's drawbacks - particularly short-term financial losses are just plain stupid.

 

I thought that Leaving was about getting control of issues like "immigration" back.

 

Leaving should be viewed over the long term. You can't simply back out of all the agreements you've made with countries over the last few decades - some of those were long term projects and need to be honoured or paid for.

 

There was always going to be a short term cost to sovereignty. If Scotland or Leicester decided to go it alone from the UK then it would be expensive the apparent pay off is being able to self rule (or self fool).

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