Politics Thread (encompassing Brexit) - 21 June 2017 onwards

[Guest]

1 hour ago, leicsmac said:

This is probably right. He has to keep Marine and her merry band of neofascists from the door, after all.

Exactly and Jean-Luc and his lefties. He is not at all popular at the moment.

[lifted*fox]

 

pfft and some people on here wanted this dolt to be PM. 

 

[RoboFox]

33 minutes ago, lifted*fox said:

 

pfft and some people on here wanted this dolt to be PM. 

 

 

The bloke's an absolute winky. 

 

Thankfully I think his reputation is irreparably damaged, and he won't be able to return to front bench politics anytime soon - despite the media's obsession with him. 

 

 

 

 

[Buce]

Mothers take govt to court over unfair Universal Credit: 

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46355306

[Mike Oxlong]

Might it be a good time to do a bit of currency trading ? 

 

The market’s going to be pretty volatile in the month ahead. 

[Buce]

More double dealing from the Tories as they defy parliament again:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/27/fresh-row-looms-as-no-10-refuses-to-publish-full-brexit-legal-advice

[lifted*fox]

they're gonna need a bigger closet to store all of the skeletons they're hiding from everyone.

 

incredible to think that you'd go to such lengths to cover up legal advice if the deal you've secured is so good for the country. 

 

brexit is going to be the biggest own goal any country has scored against itself in modern times. 

 

it absolutely blows my mind that some people on here still think that going ahead with it is a good idea - it really, really blows my mind.

 

the absolute ineptness of this government, the lying, the cover-ups, the LYING. the lying right in your face, plain, clear to see lies - the backtracking.

 

it's incredible.

 

if your local garage acted like this when your car went in you'd never ****ing go there again but we've got people here who'd continue to trust them with a full engine refit even though they'd already shown you the ****ing hamster they were going to replace it with.

 

it really, really goes to prove that when pride is involved some people will willingly chuck themselves into a barrel of snakes if it means they don't have to admit to being wrong about something. 

[Charl91]

To be fair to Boris..... (something I won't often say; the man is an opportunistic weasel of the highest order), if you filmed people often enough, you could take clips of anyone and make them look like a complete buffoon.

 

Obviously Boris doesn't need much help with that, but clearly the man isn't stupid (in the traditional sense). He's very intelligent. He just also happens to be a spineless oxygen-thief, lacking in moral fortitude, who'd sell his own grandmother for a promotion..

Edited 27 November 2018 by Charl91

[lifted*fox]

 

[Buce]

UK significantly worse off under all Brexit scenarios - official forecast

Analysis produced by range of government departments suggests GDP could fall by as much as 10.7%

 

The UK would be significantly worse off under all possible Brexit scenarios in 15 years’ time, according to a benchmark economic analysis produced by a range of government departments including the Treasury.

The keenly-anticipated document concludes that GDP would be 0.6% lower under the Chequers plan in 2035/36 – although that has been ditched after a revolt from the Tory right – and 7.7% lower in the event the UK crashes out with no deal.

 

In the worst case of all the scenarios modelled, GDP would be 10.7% lower in 15 years’ time, assuming there is no longer any net migration from the EU and EEA.

 

Remarkably, none of the scenarios modelled exactly approximate to May’s deal agreed over the weekend. But the analysts produced a scenario based on Chequers with 50% higher non-tariff barriers to help with comparison. That held that GDP would be 2.1% lower in 2035/36.

The analysis also concluded that:

• Under a Norway EEA scenario, GDP would be 1.4% lower in 15 years’ time, worse than the additional scenario produced after May’s deal was signed over the weekend.

• Under a Canada-style deal, supported by Boris Johnson and David Davis, the UK would be 4.9% worse off, the study concludes.

All scenarios were based on an assumption that EU migration rules remain unchanged. If migration rules are dramatically tightened up, to the point where there is zero net migration from the European Union and the European Economic Area GDP would be 1.8% lower.

A regional breakdown also showed that in a no-deal scenario, the north-east of England would be worst affected, followed by the West Midlands, the north-west and Northern Ireland. London would easily be the least affected.

In the best case Chequers scenario, London and the south-east would be the worst affected, although the overall GDP impact would be much lower. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland would be the least affected.

 

 

 

[Brizzle Fox]

1 minute ago, Buce said:

UK significantly worse off under all Brexit scenarios - official forecast

Analysis produced by range of government departments suggests GDP could fall by as much as 10.7%

 

The UK would be significantly worse off under all possible Brexit scenarios in 15 years’ time, according to a benchmark economic analysis produced by a range of government departments including the Treasury.

The keenly-anticipated document concludes that GDP would be 0.6% lower under the Chequers plan in 2035/36 – although that has been ditched after a revolt from the Tory right – and 7.7% lower in the event the UK crashes out with no deal.

 

In the worst case of all the scenarios modelled, GDP would be 10.7% lower in 15 years’ time, assuming there is no longer any net migration from the EU and EEA.

 

Remarkably, none of the scenarios modelled exactly approximate to May’s deal agreed over the weekend. But the analysts produced a scenario based on Chequers with 50% higher non-tariff barriers to help with comparison. That held that GDP would be 2.1% lower in 2035/36.

The analysis also concluded that:

• Under a Norway EEA scenario, GDP would be 1.4% lower in 15 years’ time, worse than the additional scenario produced after May’s deal was signed over the weekend.

• Under a Canada-style deal, supported by Boris Johnson and David Davis, the UK would be 4.9% worse off, the study concludes.

All scenarios were based on an assumption that EU migration rules remain unchanged. If migration rules are dramatically tightened up, to the point where there is zero net migration from the European Union and the European Economic Area GDP would be 1.8% lower.

A regional breakdown also showed that in a no-deal scenario, the north-east of England would be worst affected, followed by the West Midlands, the north-west and Northern Ireland. London would easily be the least affected.

In the best case Chequers scenario, London and the south-east would be the worst affected, although the overall GDP impact would be much lower. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland would be the least affected.

 

 

 

And in other news the pope declares himself Catholic and bears express a preference for defecating in woodland areas.

 

Hey but at least we'll get out country back.....

[lifted*fox]

who cares if we're worse off! it's absolutely worth it if it means MORE FISH, LESS FOREIGNERS! 

[lgfualol]

It has and always will be a stupid idea. Surprised it is still going on. All this drama over bendy bananas 

[lifted*fox]

3 minutes ago, lgfualol said:

It has and always will be a stupid idea. Surprised it is still going on. All this drama over bendy bananas 

 

BLUE PASSPORTS THO M8

[FoxNotFox]

...yet in all likelihood it's going to happen, in one form or another. The route to it not happening, or to a 2nd referendum, is just too distant I feel.

 

I'm afraid, my partners in Remain, we just to have to face up to that. :/ 

[lifted*fox]

4 minutes ago, FoxNotFox said:

 I'm afraid, my partners in Remain, we just to have to face up to that. :/ 

 

I refuse to give up on it. 

 

May's deal is not going to get through parliament. 

 

No deal is not an option - nobody will allow that to happen.

 

We will see a GE or a second referendum - the noise is getting too loud. 

 

Everyone on PMQS (currently live) absolutely slating May's deal and asking how anyone can back it with a straight face. 

 

People are absolutely gunning her and the deal.

[Nick]

21 hours ago, lifted*fox said:

 

pfft and some people on here wanted this dolt to be PM. 

 

A mop that’s been rammed through a ham ? 

[FoxNotFox]

1 minute ago, lifted*fox said:

May's deal is not going to get through parliament. 

 

No deal is not an option - nobody will allow that to happen.

Agreed and agreed. And there's the problem. There's a chasm between those 2 statements, a void. I don't know what will happen to fill that void; a last minute (Norway style?) agreement perhaps? An extension to A50 time-out and a rinse-and-repeat, too-ing and fro-ing between HMG and the EU negotiators? We're simply staring at too many brick walls, too many 'road closed' signs. 

 

My fear is that MPs will fear equally the void and the threat of 'no deal' and will vote May's deal through.  May will declare a victory but it'll not feel like one.

[lifted*fox]

well no - as I see it if May's deal gets voted down (which it will) she will be forced to resign and a GE / second referendum will be called (via one route or another). 

 

the EU have said they will extend / revoke article 50 if required.

 

from the state of PMQS this morning absolutely everyone can not understand how anyone would support something that leaves us significantly worse off than we currently are. 

 

everyone is like 'wtf m8, this deal is unfathomable bullshit that doesn't actually say ANYTHING'. 

[lifted*fox]

 

and they're asking us to vote for this. 

 

funnily enough - north east and north west to be hit hardest and london the least. 

 

you literally couldn't make this shit up. 

 

[bovril]

51 minutes ago, lgfualol said:

It has and always will be a stupid idea. Surprised it is still going on. All this drama over bendy bananas 

I think it's mostly over free movement. You can tell this from the agreement and May's rhetoric. Which, personally, I think is illogical as most rich countries import labour to do low-skilled jobs while keeping the good jobs for themselves (the ethics of this is another debate). We seem to be going through this whole process in order to outsource shit jobs to ourselves while simultaneously making it harder to move to other European countries. 

Edited 28 November 2018 by bovril

[Guest MattP]

3 minutes ago, lifted*fox said:

well no - as I see it if May's deal gets voted down (which it will) she will be forced to resign and a GE / second referendum will be called (via one route or another). 

 

the EU have said they will extend / revoke article 50 if required.

 

from the state of PMQS this morning absolutely everyone can not understand how anyone would support something that leaves us significantly worse off than we currently are. 

 

everyone is like 'wtf m8, this deal is unfathomable bullshit that doesn't actually say ANYTHING'. 

I don't see why the Tories would go straight down the GE route - surely another leader and a different negotiation comes before a vote of no confidence in the whole government, wouldn't make any sense to call a second referendum for reasons I've already explained - a second GE would certainly be possible though.

Second point isn't true is it, just yesterday the lawyers for the EU said it couldn't be unilaterally revoked. - https://www.ft.com/content/502d22a6-f22d-11e8-9623-d7f9881e729f

[Guest MattP]

10 minutes ago, lifted*fox said:

 

funnily enough - north east and north west to be hit hardest and london the least. 

 

you literally couldn't make this shit up. 

 

People still believe the forecasts from the treasury in 2018? Mental. These scenarios are from the questions they ask, hence why Cameron and Osborne got it so wrong in the immediate aftermath of the vote to leave with their ridiculous predictions - you wouldn't get a government showing positive forecasts for a scenario they didn't want to happen - you can find far different economic forecasts for no deal from economists like Patrick Minford if you want to do so.

He's a Labour MEP as well - I bet he's never tweeted a positive forecast from the Conservative government all his life and he'll happily jump onto them when it's negative, shame we can't have even more devolved government, imagine what some of these coastal towns could do economically if they became free ports - wonder what that could do for towns in the North East for example.

Edited 28 November 2018 by MattP

[lifted*fox]

Matt, you're in here mostly fighting the good fight by yourself now - tough job.

 

Yes, all of the sources I post are wrong / incorrect / out-of-date / project fear / biased, etc.

 

So please can you take some time to post some genuine sources that show how good Brexit is going to be for us?

 

Because I can't find any, from any source, anywhere. 

[hairy]

8 minutes ago, MattP said:

People still believe the forecasts from the treasury in 2018? Mental. These scenarios are from the questions they ask, hence why Cameron and Osborne got it so wrong in the immediate aftermath of the vote to leave with their ridiculous predictions - you wouldn't get a government showing positive forecasts for a scenario they didn't want to happen - you can find far different economic forecasts for no deal from economists like Patrick Minford if you want to do so.

He's a Labour MEP as well - I bet he's never tweeted a positive forecast from the Conservative government all his life and he'll happily jump onto them when it's negative, shame we can't have even more devolved government, imagine what some of these coastal towns could do economically if they became free ports - wonder what that could do for towns in the North East for example.

This sounds like something from /r/donald. Rubbish everyone and hope it deflects the truth