SirBlueFoxington Posted 12 April 2010 Posted 12 April 2010 how can we draw on the final day & M'boro win? Ahh you noticed the mistake i put there on purpose to check how long it would take for someone to correct me .....
SirBlueFoxington Posted 12 April 2010 Posted 12 April 2010 Is there an option 10 Cardiff go into Administration?
Guest Mee-9 Posted 13 April 2010 Posted 13 April 2010 You've been busy Maddog :thumbsup: Option 1 for me.
Guest Bilo Posted 13 April 2010 Posted 13 April 2010 Bugger me maddog! I love the in depth analysis, very informative and all that, but the inside of a vagina feels so great. I can highly recommend it.
flanimal Posted 13 April 2010 Posted 13 April 2010 If Leicester win against Watford, and the teams below us chasing the playoffs lose (for example, Blackpool, Middlesbrough, Reading) don't we then automatically get a play off place?
SirBlueFoxington Posted 13 April 2010 Posted 13 April 2010 If Leicester win against Watford, and the teams below us chasing the playoffs lose (for example, Blackpool, Middlesbrough, Reading) don't we then automatically get a play off place? That would be option 1
sam_lcfc Posted 13 April 2010 Posted 13 April 2010 That would be option 1 Ummmm really?! Option 1 was win all games. It can be sorted by the weekend. If Blackpool and Boro both lose at the weekend (against Forest and West Brom respectively - both very possible), we win against Watford (very possible) and Reading fail to win one of their two next games (Newcastle tonight and Peterboro at the weekend - even more possible!) then a play-off spot is guarenteed.
orod Posted 13 April 2010 Posted 13 April 2010 the best option is for us to win all three games regardless of how others perform. although it would be very unlikely, it probs wouldnt be good for us to finish 3rd cus a playoff against 6th would probably be against the most in form team.
sam_lcfc Posted 13 April 2010 Posted 13 April 2010 the best option is for us to win all three games regardless of how others perform. although it would be very unlikely, it probs wouldnt be good for us to finish 3rd cus a playoff against 6th would probably be against the most in form team. If we win all 3 games we wont come third. No way. Forest will get 1 point between now and then,
flanimal Posted 13 April 2010 Posted 13 April 2010 Ummmm really?! Option 1 was win all games. It can be sorted by the weekend. If Blackpool and Boro both lose at the weekend (against Forest and West Brom respectively - both very possible), we win against Watford (very possible) and Reading fail to win one of their two next games (Newcastle tonight and Peterboro at the weekend - even more possible!) then a play-off spot is guarenteed. Exactly, it's not option 1 - it can be finished with this weekend. If Leicester win vs Watford, that would give Leicester 70 points. If Blackpool lose, they'd have 63 points with two games left, meaning they could only get 69 points if they won both games. Same kind of thing with Middlesbrough, Bristol City and Sheffield United. If they all don't win, they can't reach 70 points. Reading are the biggest threat based on form, but if they lose today vs Newcastle, they'd have 56 points with four games left, meaning if they won all four they could only get 68 points. So, in terms of reaching play offs - it could be accomplished this weekend.
SirBlueFoxington Posted 13 April 2010 Posted 13 April 2010 Exactly, it's not option 1 - it can be finished with this weekend. If Leicester win vs Watford, that would give Leicester 70 points. If Blackpool lose, they'd have 63 points with two games left, meaning they could only get 69 points if they won both games. Same kind of thing with Middlesbrough, Bristol City and Sheffield United. If they all don't win, they can't reach 70 points. Reading are the biggest threat based on form, but if they lose today vs Newcastle, they'd have 56 points with four games left, meaning if they won all four they could only get 68 points. So, in terms of reaching play offs - it could be accomplished this weekend. Well Reading are losing so, so far so good!
flanimal Posted 13 April 2010 Posted 13 April 2010 Well Reading are losing so, so far so good! Reading lost.
Craig Posted 13 April 2010 Posted 13 April 2010 We beat Watford. + Blackpool lose to Forest. + Boro fail to beat West Brom. = Playoffs. That simple. No need for all that waffle.
Salieri Posted 13 April 2010 Posted 13 April 2010 We beat Watford. + Blackpool lose to Forest. + Boro fail to beat West Brom. = Playoffs. That simple. No need for all that waffle. Put like that (in terms that are easy to comprehend!), it's a distinct possibility we could be confirmed in the Play Offs on Sat! My only doubt would be Blackpool losing to Forest, reckon they'll get at least a draw. Still, looking very good for us.
flanimal Posted 13 April 2010 Posted 13 April 2010 We beat Watford. + Blackpool lose to Forest. + Boro fail to beat West Brom. = Playoffs. That simple. No need for all that waffle. Well said. Hopefully Reading will drop points, I wouldn't fancy them in the play offs.
maddog Posted 13 April 2010 Author Posted 13 April 2010 Options for LCFC to mathimatically guarantee a playoff place. Option 1 Leicester WIN last 3 games (Watford (h), Preston (a), M'Boro (h)) Option 2 Leicester WIN 2, DRAW 1 of their last 3 games (Watford (h), Preston (a), M'Boro (h)) Option 3 Leicester WIN 2, LOSE 1 of their last 3 games (Watford (h), Preston (a), M'Boro (h)) Option 4 Leicester WIN 1, DRAW 2 of their last 3 games (Watford (h), Preston (a), M'Boro (h)) Blackpool DON'T WIN ALL of their last 3 games (Forest (h), P'Boro (a), Bristol C (h)) ***Due to Blackpools superior goal difference, should Blackpool win all of their remaining games, in this scenario, they would almost certainly finish above us unless our win was by 7 goals, and their 3 wins all by 1 goal*** ***Should we win by 6 goals, and Blackpool win by 1 goal in all their 3 wins, they would still finish above us on goals scored*** Option 5 Leicester WIN 1, DRAW 1, LOSE 1, of their last 3 games (Watford (h), Preston (a), M'Boro (h)) Blackpool DON'T WIN ALL of their last 3 games (Forest (h), P'Boro (a), Bristol C (h)) Reading DON'T WIN ALL of their last 5 games (Newcastle (h), P'Boro (h), Scunny (a), Watford (a), Preston (h)) Option 6 Leicester WIN 1, LOSE 2, of their last 3 games (Watford (h), Preston (a), M'Boro (h)) Blackpool LOSE 1, of their last 3 games (Forest (h), P'Boro (a), Bristol C (h)) or DRAW 2, of their last 3 games (Forest (h), P'Boro (a), Bristol C (h)) Reading DON'T WIN ALL of their last 5 games (Newcastle (h), P'Boro (h), Scunny (a), Watford (a), Preston (h)) Middlesbrough DON'T WIN ALL of their last 3 games (West Brom (a), Coventry (h), Leicester (a) **In this scenario, should Middlesbrough win all of their remaining 3 games they would almost certainly finish above us on goal difference, unless all of Middlesbrough's wins are by 1 goal, our second loss is by 1 goal (one of our loses would be to M'Boro), and we win by 7 goals. Winning by 7 goals should result in us finishing above them on goals scored. Option 7 Leicester DRAW 2, LOSE 1, of their last 3 games (Watford (h), Preston (a), M'Boro (h)) Blackpool DRAW 2 of their last 3 games (Forest (h), P'Boro (a), Bristol C (h)) or LOSE 2 of their last 3 games (Forest (h), P'Boro (a), Bristol C (h)) **One loss and two wins for Blackpool here and they are almost certain to finish above us on goal difference unless they lose their game by 7 goals** ** Losing their game by 6 goals should result in them finishing above us on goals scored** Reading LOSE 1 of their last 5 games (Newcastle (h), P'Boro (h), Scunny (a), Watford (a), Preston (h)) or DRAW 2 of their last 5 games (Newcastle (h), P'Boro (h), Scunny (a), Watford (a), Preston (h)) **One draw and 4 wins for Reading here would result in them finishing above us if their goal difference overall in those 4 wins is +10, goals scored would come into play should it be +9 and leave Reading almost certainly above us** Middlesbrough DON'T WIN ALL of their last 3 games (West Brom (a), Coventry (h), Leicester (a)) Option 8 Leicester DRAW 1, LOSE 2 of their last 3 games (Watford (h), Preston (a), M'Boro (h)) Blackpool DRAW 1, LOSE 1 of their last 3 games (Forest (h), P'Boro (a), Bristol C (h)) or LOSE 2 of their last 3 games (Forest (h), P'Boro (a), Bristol C (h)) **One win and 2 draws for Blackpool here and they would definitely finish above us on goal difference, 100%** Reading DON'T WIN ALL of their last 4 games (P'Boro (h), Scunny (a), Watford (a), Preston (h)) **4 wins for Reading at a +10 goal difference here and they are above us, a +9 goal difference should see them finish above us on goals scored** Middlesbrough LOSE 1 of their last 3 games (West Brom (a), Coventry (h), Leicester (a)) or DRAW 2 of their last 3 games (West Brom (a), Coventry (h), Leicester (a)) **1 draw, 2 wins for M'Boro here and they would finish above us on goal difference, 100% defo** Bristol City DON'T WIN all of their last 3 games (Scunny (a), Derby (h), Blackpool (a)) **Should Bristol City win all of their last 3 games there would need to be a massive, highly unlikely goal difference swing for them to get above us, they would also beat Blackpool which would mean we would stay above Ollie if they slip up once more** Option 9 Leicester LOSE ALL of their last 3 games (Watford (h), Preston (a), M'Boro (h)) Blackpool LOSE 2 of their last 3 games (Forest (h), P'Boro (a), Bristol C (h)) or DRAW 3 of their last 3 games (Forest (h), P'Boro (a), Bristol C (h)) **In this final scenario, 4 points for Blackpool here would virtually guarantee them a place above us on goal difference, unless their loss is something freakish, a 8 goal loss infact, a 7 goal loss for Blackpool and goals scored should ruin us** Reading DON'T WIN ALL of their last 4 games (P'Boro (h), Scunny (a), Watford (a), Preston (h)) Middlesbrough DON'T WIN 2 of their last 3 games (West Brom (a), Coventry (h), Leicester (a)) **6 points here for Boro and goal difference would almost certainly do us, unless their loss is by 8 goals, goals scored should secure their playoff place, in this scenario, if they lose by 7 goals** Bristol City DON'T WIN all of their last 3 games (Scunny (a), Derby (h), Blackpool (a)) ** 3 wins for Bristol here and i'm afraid they're above us** Sheffield United DON'T WIN all of their last 3 games (Sheff Wed (a), Swansea (h), Ipswich (a) **The Blades would need to have a +6 goal difference in those wins though to finish above us, +5 and goals scored should secure it for them** Some of the ** goal difference scenarios do assume sides losing all their games by only one goal, or winning all their games by only one goal. For example, in option 8, it states a +10 goal difference would see Reading finish above us and a +9 goal difference should see them finish above us on goals scored. This takes into account the worst case scenario for Reading which is Leicester only losing their games by only 1 goal. Afterall, if Reading can have a better goal difference than us then, then they are guaranteed to finish above us. If that makes sense. By options 8 and 9 should they happen, then obviously Boro's result against us is going to have a massive effect on things mainly in those two options. So they may contradict themselves a little. A shit load of these options will be eliminated after Saturdays results. None of these options take into account Swansea's results and us finishing above them aswell, just us guaranteeing 6th at least. It could be possible to incorporate Swansea into this but it would make it a hell of a lot more complicated than it already is. And would probably involve basing the whole thing on us finishing 5th, which wouldn't really work, it would be pretty hard to do. I'm no genius. Copyright mental maddog Reading almost
Corky Posted 13 April 2010 Posted 13 April 2010 So, Reading now 11 points adrift with four to play. Good result for us. Should put them out of reach
flanimal Posted 13 April 2010 Posted 13 April 2010 They can still make the play offs, they have to win all their games, and I think they'd finish 6th, but if Leicester win the next game against Watford, I think they are out of range. But I wouldn't want them in the play offs.
Craig Posted 13 April 2010 Posted 13 April 2010 Pocket radios on saturday then. Well, it's only the Blackpool game on while we're playing. Boro at West Brom is on BBC in the evening I think.
Lillehamring Posted 14 April 2010 Posted 14 April 2010 here are the maximum points achievable updated: NC 43 95 - 104 WB 43 86 - 95 NF 43 75 - 84 CC 43 70 - 79 LE 43 67 - 76 SW 43 65 - 74 BL 43 63 - 72 MI 43 61 - 70 BC 43 59 - 68 SU 43 58 - 67 RE 42 56 - 68 shows just how important a win on saturday could be...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.