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maddog

Playoff options thread,

By maddog, in Leicester City Forum

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maddog

maddog

Posted
Posted

Options for LCFC to mathimatically guarantee a playoff place.

Option 1

Leicester WIN last 3 games (Watford (h), Preston (a), M'Boro (h))

Option 2

Leicester WIN 2, DRAW 1 of their last 3 games (Watford (h), Preston (a), M'Boro (h))

Option 3

Leicester WIN 2, LOSE 1 of their last 3 games (Watford (h), Preston (a), M'Boro (h))

Option 4

Leicester WIN 1, DRAW 2 of their last 3 games (Watford (h), Preston (a), M'Boro (h))

Blackpool DON'T WIN ALL of their last 3 games (Forest (h), P'Boro (a), Bristol C (h))

***Due to Blackpools superior goal difference, should Blackpool win all of their remaining games, in this scenario, they would almost certainly finish above us unless our win was by 7 goals, and their 3 wins all by 1 goal***

***Should we win by 6 goals, and Blackpool win by 1 goal in all their 3 wins, they would still finish above us on goals scored***

Option 5

Leicester WIN 1, DRAW 1, LOSE 1, of their last 3 games (Watford (h), Preston (a), M'Boro (h))

Blackpool DON'T WIN ALL of their last 3 games (Forest (h), P'Boro (a), Bristol C (h))

Reading DON'T WIN ALL of their last 5 games (Newcastle (h), P'Boro (h), Scunny (a), Watford (a), Preston (h))

Option 6

Leicester WIN 1, LOSE 2, of their last 3 games (Watford (h), Preston (a), M'Boro (h))

Blackpool LOSE 1, of their last 3 games (Forest (h), P'Boro (a), Bristol C (h)) or DRAW 2, of their last 3 games (Forest (h), P'Boro (a), Bristol C (h))

Reading DON'T WIN ALL of their last 5 games (Newcastle (h), P'Boro (h), Scunny (a), Watford (a), Preston (h))

Middlesbrough DON'T WIN ALL of their last 3 games (West Brom (a), Coventry (h), Leicester (a)

**In this scenario, should Middlesbrough win all of their remaining 3 games they would almost certainly finish above us on goal difference, unless all of Middlesbrough's wins are by 1 goal, our second loss is by 1 goal

(one of our loses would be to M'Boro), and we win by 7 goals. Winning by 7 goals should result in us finishing above them on goals scored.

Option 7

Leicester DRAW 2, LOSE 1, of their last 3 games (Watford (h), Preston (a), M'Boro (h))

Blackpool DRAW 2 of their last 3 games (Forest (h), P'Boro (a), Bristol C (h)) or LOSE 2 of their last 3 games (Forest (h), P'Boro (a), Bristol C (h))

**One loss and two wins for Blackpool here and they are almost certain to finish above us on goal difference unless they lose their game by 7 goals**

** Losing their game by 6 goals should result in them finishing above us on goals scored**

Reading LOSE 1 of their last 5 games (Newcastle (h), P'Boro (h), Scunny (a), Watford (a), Preston (h)) or DRAW 2 of their last 5 games (Newcastle (h), P'Boro (h), Scunny (a), Watford (a), Preston (h))

**One draw and 4 wins for Reading here would result in them finishing above us if their goal difference overall in those 4 wins is +10, goals scored would come into play should it be +9 and leave Reading almost certainly above us**

Middlesbrough DON'T WIN ALL of their last 3 games (West Brom (a), Coventry (h), Leicester (a))

Option 8

Leicester DRAW 1, LOSE 2 of their last 3 games (Watford (h), Preston (a), M'Boro (h))

Blackpool DRAW 1, LOSE 1 of their last 3 games (Forest (h), P'Boro (a), Bristol C (h)) or LOSE 2 of their last 3 games (Forest (h), P'Boro (a), Bristol C (h))

**One win and 2 draws for Blackpool here and they would definitely finish above us on goal difference, 100%**

Reading DON'T WIN 4 of their last 5 games (Newcastle (h), P'Boro (h), Scunny (a), Watford (a), Preston (h))

**4 wins for Reading at a +9 goal difference here and they are above us, a +8 goal difference should see them finish above us on goals scored**

Middlesbrough LOSE 1 of their last 3 games (West Brom (a), Coventry (h), Leicester (a)) or DRAW 2 of their last 3 games (West Brom (a), Coventry (h), Leicester (a))

**1 draw, 2 wins for M'Boro here and they would finish above us on goal difference, 100% defo**

Bristol City DON'T WIN all of their last 3 games (Scunny (a), Derby (h), Blackpool (a))

**Should Bristol City win all of their last 3 games there would need to be a massive, highly unlikely goal difference swing for them to get above us, they would also beat Blackpool which would mean we would stay above Ollie if they slip up once more**

Option 9

Leicester LOSE ALL of their last 3 games (Watford (h), Preston (a), M'Boro (h)) :o

Blackpool LOSE 2 of their last 3 games (Forest (h), P'Boro (a), Bristol C (h)) or DRAW 3 of their last 3 games (Forest (h), P'Boro (a), Bristol C (h))

**In this final scenario, 4 points for Blackpool here would virtually guarantee them a place above us on goal difference, unless their loss is something freakish, a 8 goal loss infact, a 7 goal loss for Blackpool and goals scored should ruin us**

Reading LOSE 1 DRAW 1 of their last 5 games (Newcastle (h), P'Boro (h), Scunny (a), Watford (a), Preston (h))

Middlesbrough DON'T WIN 2 of their last 3 games (West Brom (a), Coventry (h), Leicester (a))

**6 points here for Boro and goal difference would almost certainly do us, unless their loss is by 8 goals, goals scored should secure their playoff place, in this scenario, if they lose by 7 goals**

Bristol City DON'T WIN all of their last 3 games (Scunny (a), Derby (h), Blackpool (a))

** 3 wins for Bristol here and i'm afraid they're above us**

Sheffield United DON'T WIN all of their last 3 games (Sheff Wed (a), Swansea (h), Ipswich (a)

**The Blades would need to have a +6 goal difference in those wins though to finish above us, +5 and goals scored should secure it for them**

Some of the ** goal difference scenarios do assume sides losing all their games by only one goal, or winning all their games by only one goal. For example, in option 8, it states a +9 goal difference would see Reading finish above us and a +8 goal difference should see them finish above us on goals scored. This takes into account the worst case scenario for Reading which is Leicester only losing their games by only 1 goal. Afterall, if Reading can have a better goal difference than us then, then they are guaranteed to finish above us. If that makes sense.

By options 8 and 9 should they happen, then obviously Boro's result against us is going to have a massive effect on things mainly in those two options. So they may contradict themselves a little.

A shit load of these options will be eliminated after Saturdays results.

None of these options take into account Swansea's results and us finishing above them aswell, just us guaranteeing 6th at least. It could be possible to incorporate Swansea into this but it would make it a hell of a lot more complicated than it already is. And would probably involve basing the whole thing on us finishing 5th, which wouldn't really work, it would be pretty hard to do. I'm no genius.

Copyright mental maddog ;)

Bakey

Bakey

Posted
Posted

Decent read, I feel option 5 would be most likely to come off.

Thought you might have had some betting odds on some of these outcomes ;)

ScouseFox

ScouseFox

Posted
Posted

Option 3 or 5 i reckon.

Not too bothered what option really, as long as we get there in the end :cool:

good work though, makes it look a bit easier than i had imagined :thumbup:

Finchy

Finchy

Posted
Posted

As long as we get in I don't mind. I'd say option 4 is most likely.

Although this would be horrible, i'd kind of like us to have to beat Middlesborough on the last day, beat them and go into the play offs with some real confidence.

samjohnson

samjohnson

Posted
Posted

Quality Stuff maddog... Hoping for an easy ride into the playoffs... but i really cant see it happening lol

DB11

DB11

Posted
Posted

Decent read, I feel option 5 would be most likely to come off.

Thought you might have had some betting odds on some of these outcomes ;)

I got bored and didn't read any of it.

Jimothy

Jimothy

Posted
Posted

Don't Swansea come into this somewhere now though. With us passing them, surely that means we can lose games and Blackpool can win games and as long as Swansea lose it will them that miss out not us.

SirBlueFoxington

SirBlueFoxington

Posted
Posted

I did the BBC predictor with...

Leicester W,D,D

Blackpool W,W,W

Swansea W,D,W

Reading W,W,W,W,W

Middlesborough L,W,D

We still finished within the play-offs.

Blackpool 72

Leicester 72

------------------

Swansea 72

Reading 71

Middlesborough 65

We stay in with better Goal Difference than Swansea :D

StanSP

StanSP

Posted
Posted

I'd be happy just winning our matches and not giving a fuck about what other teams do. Not taking anything away what you've done Maddog as that must have taken a while!

But as long as we win, we'll always stay in the play-offs.

Sylvie85

Sylvie85

Posted
Posted

Still just concentrating week by week, a game at a time. Big win this weekend if we can.

Think will be option 5 in the end!

jonthefox

jonthefox

Posted
Posted

I did the BBC predictor with...

Leicester W,D,D

Blackpool W,W,W

Swansea W,D,W

Reading W,W,W,W,W

Middlesborough L,W,W

We still finished within the play-offs.

Blackpool 72

Leicester 72

------------------

Swansea 72

Reading 71

Middlesborough 67

We stay in with better Goal Difference than Swansea :D

I did this too, and we came 7th. :cry:

Hitesh

Hitesh

Posted
Posted

Far too much time on your hands...... but.... Option 1 :thumbup:

Exactly what I was thinking half way down reading that!

Good stuff Maddog! :thumbup:

The Doctor

The Doctor

Posted
Posted

I did the BBC predictor with...

Leicester W,D,D

Blackpool W,W,W

Swansea W,D,W

Reading W,W,W,W,W

Middlesborough L,W,W

We still finished within the play-offs.

Blackpool 72

Leicester 72

------------------

Swansea 72

Reading 71

Middlesborough 67

We stay in with better Goal Difference than Swansea :D

how can we draw on the final day & M'boro win?

Salieri

Salieri

Posted
Posted

Fair play maddog, in depth analysis and all that.

You're clearly a) barking and/or b)have way too much time on your hands.

But fair play all the same.

That'll teach Dylan for trying to steal your limelight!

:locked: :celebrate::jump::punk::yahoo::dance::scarf::bounce::banana:

Legend_in_blue

Legend_in_blue

Posted
Posted

I stopped reading after option 3... :giggle:

This is an extremely in depth analysis of the possibilites ahead of us in the next three games but I can summarise it in one single sentence and it goes like this...

Forget the teams around us, the only team that matters is us, the greatest team in the playoff positions is us and considering teams around us as irrelevant, we should only concentrate on doing what is required - winning our three games.

:scarf:

That is it.

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