leicsmac

A dead heat? Possible, but unlikely.

To say nothing of his supporters.

This has been analysed before. If the margin of error breaks for Trump in the same way it did in 2016 and 2020, then he'll likely win with a decent majority. If being the key word in that sentence.

Yeah, fair enough, a person in his position (or in her position, in Hillary's case (shouldn't have said it at all). I stand by the difference in context though, and if folks can look past the playground insults (that Trump made mainstream in such politics) I wonder exactly what one might call someone who would vote for the man considering his policy stance on various matters, to say nothing of his attitude towards directly inciting an insurrection attempt following an electoral loss. I'm not sure why he, or most of his followers, merit such a staunch defence.

Yeah, that's another possible. Whoever wins, the diplomatic corps will need to be top notch.

Except that even though Biden probably shouldn't have said it, it was firstly as a response rather than spontaneously expressing sentiment and secondly not targeting a particular already derided and marginalised demographic (unless we're counting poor rural white neighbourhoods, which is fair enough). Pardon me for calling out the equivalence with no context as lazy. Edit: even though perception trumps facts these days and a lot of people will draw the selfsame conclusion.

I do think that Eastern cultures have a healthier attitude towards the whole thing than we do, and I know my own stance may not be the healthiest either.

Absolutely no disagreement there.

If they don't then the Ukrainians certainly won't budge themselves considering it would just leave them open to being attacked again a little while down the line. There would have to be at least some security guarantee backed up by the larger players. TBh though I've always thought the line that Trump was less of a warmongering candidate total BS that's somehow managed to take hold anyway; given the contempt he has for various nations and peoples the main reason something bigger didn't happen on his watch was mostly luck that some spots (Taiwan, Korean DMZ, ME/Iran etc) didn't flare up as much while he was in charge.

Donald Trump told a rally in Wisconsin he wanted to protect women "whether the women like it or not" from "missiles" and "migrants". Good to see where the man (and those he's setting an example for) stands on women's consent, then.

Given Trump's past commentary and actions re the Iranians, I'd say that's pretty even either way too. WRT Ukraine, status quo ante bellum isn't going to happen, the most likely deal IMO is Russia keeping what they've taken now in exchange for Ukraine being admitted into NATO (and so being pretty much insured from further attack) but neither side have been worn down enough to really want that at the moment, it seems.

Which just goes to show how smooth "humour" can cover up real feelings and sway audiences, given it was a guest signed off by the Trump campaign that basically stated what they really think of brown-skinned people and the places where they live in the first instance.

Interesting - I'd have it the other way round, from a religious perspective death is OK because according to a lot of them you live again afterwards. It's the nonreligious that think death is the worst possible outcome, because of the oblivion that entails for them. I'll personally happily admit to being deeply thanatophobic and having that shape my worldview significantly.

Yeah. There's a demographic crisis on the way that no one really wants to talk about casually, much less politically. Incentivising higher birth rates of "natives" won't work either because it'll simply contribute to an ongoing world population growth that will end very, very badly. There are no good options on this one, I don't think - it will be about trying to pick the best bad one.

Speak for yourself and not for everyone there, mon ami. Some folks do - have to - think beyond their own four walls and lifetimes, not out of any moral concept, but pragmatism as in that's the way your four walls and lifetime stay stable and safe. Fair point on foreign policy at the present time, though I'm not sure what Trump does there beyond stopping wars by the method of giving autocrats whatever they ask for at the expense of other people.

Yeah, what you state there is obviously true given the evidence. I think we've talked about this before though, but I simply question both the motive and the idea that those three points are anywhere near the top of what should be considered morally or pragmatically. It's incredibly short sighted.

At the risk of sounding repetitive, no, they may not be. It is entirely possible to make a decision based on policy without partisan feeling coming into matters. Of course floating voters are more fixated on the $$$, as is often the case, but that's not really relevant to the initial argument, I don't think. NB. I really hope that you're wrong about floating voters not caring if women have more rights dead than alive and about the consequences of what we're doing to the biosphere tbh - doesn't exactly bode well for the future.

Not sure what either of those things have to do with blind hatred or political loyalty tbh. I would have thought fundamental women's rights and the future of our environment wouldn't really be matters of disagreement politics.

... or if you looked past the two figurehead and actually cared about a woman's right to bodily autonomy and the future of the biosphere, to name but two things. Yes, I know short term economic pocketbook thinking is prevalent, though.

I doubt we'll agree on much ever but the forum would be poorer for your absence.

It is devastating and I hope you and yours are safe. Sadly, I fear, it's neither unpredicted nor an outlier that won't happen again.

One would hope that most rational people buy into this and reserve judgement at least for the time being.

With an NHS and social care sector that actually was able to help a decent proportion of people in a decent amount of time. But money is clearly more important than human life and health.

You would think that at least on some fundamental things though, there would be at least some unity of opinion. Though that's probably wishful thinking given that there appears to be disagreement on even the very idea of truth, the most basic scientific facts and the methodology used to obtain them these days.

I think that was the case when he first broke onto the political scene, but the whole thing took on a life of its own not long after imo. Social media may have had a large part to play in that though imo.