leicsmac

Get back to me when ranged weaponry (that isn't nuclear) becomes as efficient at destruction as even a garden variety Hurricane or tornado. To say nothing of a simple novel virus racking up a seven figure death count inside a couple of years in the US without breaking a sweat, or that we're living in one of the most temperate times in Earth's history. Nature can, does, and will, fvck us up.

It is indeed. People don't seem to get that the economy doesn't matter much when there are little or no resources to buy with the value it generates. Then the "economy" rapidly becomes the person with the biggest gun taking what they want.

I guess we'll find out soon enough. NB. I wonder what Heather Heyer in 2017 and the Capitol police on January 6th 2021 thought of downplaying what Trump and his followers get up to.

...just like Biden four years ago? But, in all seriousness, this one is a lot, lot closer.

And so we come to it at last. Fivethirtyeight actually shows the slightest tilt towards Harris in its final prediction. But it is still functionally 50/50. Let it begin.

Presented without comment other than it's interesting to see the degree in importance of various issues varies between the two voter bases. The Repubs certainly seem hyperfocused on a few specific issues more.

Fair enough, I've been watching far too much unsubstantiated opinion being expressed as fact over the pond and it giving a convicted felon a good chance of getting the Presidency again, pardon my frustration at the phenomenon and the damage it causes.

...don't let the substantiated facts get in the way of speculative derision at the current incumbent government, with a side order of zero mention of the culpability of the previous one.

Quite apart from the moral turpitude of thinking a convicted felon and an insurrection inciter to be elected to the highest of offices anyway.

I would think and hope that such a drastic effect as the one being discussed above (which it undoubtedly is) would at least be able to be simulated indirectly and therefore included, though.

The breathtaking hypocrisy of a man purporting to stand up for farmers and their families while directly advocating for policies that will make every single one of them work harder with lower yields and become worse off. WRT Farage, it's not surprising that he's returned to his classical home halfway up Trumps colon.

No, I mean why wouldn't the polling companies have included these factors in their modelling. I've no doubt it's more difficult to reach such voters to poll them, but given this is the third spin of the wheel you would have thought they would have added this factor to the algorithm this time round. Little bit disappointed to hear the Voter ID news - at best it's using a bazooka to shoot a fly (the American way, I guess), at worst it's reasonably blatant voter suppression by the Repubs.

Is there any reason to suggest the polling companies really haven't accounted for this in their figures, given this would have been the third time it would have happened?

Two reasons. Firstly, they can write off his involvement in it as "fake news" while emphasising the role of others and boosting their victim narrative. Secondly, they really believe that the truth is what they say it is so it honestly doesn't matter what official sources say anyway. Trump winning tomorrow would only vindicate that more in their eyes. For them, popular opinion and belief (and not even that popular) outranks fact and should be used as a basis for worldview.

Biden, I think the reference is to, according to numbers. That's not exactly 100% accurate though either, see above.

Cummins and Starc get them across the finish line again.

Final day, and it's still a coin flip.

Yep, exactly. And then the matter becomes one of foreign policy and inequality.

Then perhaps it is indeed time to address the root causes of why so many people feel compelled to migrate, then.

And, lest we forget, that one policy area has the power to render practically all the others totally moot.

In terms of sheer numbers, certainly. But I'm pretty sure in terms of percentage of population, there would be a number of other Presidents - Washington, Lincoln, FDR, even Reagan 1984 and Dubya post-9/11 - who might claim otherwise. Also, as above, the fact that truth apparently has less worth now is something that should be worrying people.

Absolutely so. However, in other areas the same theory applied can have very, very negative results.

Given the scale of the problem and the consequences, I fear that the former and the latter in terms of intent overlap in terms of result. - Personal responsibility is fine, but political policy is required to make the large scale changes necessary work - This is a global problem with global consequences. If people think it "too big" for themselves then fair enough, but I don't see future generations looking so kindly upon them for the suffering such thought may inflict upon them - Self-interest is innate to all organisms, yes. Overcoming that, at least when necessary, is how they (mostly) survive for longer than others.

Yep. Unfortunately on certain matters, the Earth will not tolerate such subversion of the truth and fundamental laws.

I wish I shared your confidence in that matter, and if science can't make reasonable predictions about the future, climate or otherwise, and base action upon it accordingly, then we might have a few problems, to be honest. I absolutely agree with the second paragraph, but then we've chatted about that topic before. Well, I'm glad you now think that way. Sadly, it appears that Trump and a large part of his voter base do not.