The Doctor

aimless passing ourselves into trouble again, pretty clear penalty

set up was not great but you got to love a manager rocking the white trainers on the touch line. like having big nige back

deserved that, we've been shocking so far

looking really poor tbh

one game snapshot you're quite right, ideally you want a minimum of 5 or 6 games to assess on (gives you trending data and evens out ridiculous single over/under performances) and you'd do so on a rolling basis to assess changes in performance. unfortunately, we're 7 games in and it does look bad.

No. Come on, you're smarter than this. long term, results trend towards matching performances, not performances towards matching results. if we do the latter, great, but it'd be a fool who'd bet on that happening.

you remember wrongly. our underlying data that season had us as the second best attacking side, giving up slightly more chances (8th for xGA) and an expected points that was 4th in the division, just marginally below man city and spurs, and a couple of points behind arsenal. we were rarely outplayed and won because we had a top performing keeper. after 7 games, in which we've played only one of the likely top 4 (Liverpool, Arsenal, Man City and Chelsea) while all of our likely relegation rivals except Southampton have played at least 2. It can change massively and the sensible money is on it changing to match the underlying data, not on the underlying data suddenly improving to match the points haul.

that's not what underlying data means. the underlying data is that both attacking and defensively, we're one of the two worst sides in the division, relying on moments of magic from forwards and a keeper playing out of his skin. that is not sustainable

people do understand that, the question is whether he can achieve that, and all the underlying data says he cannot

There's a perception, particularly from bottom 5 clubs and leeds, that we're a bunch of cheats because we failed PSR, got relegated and didn't get a points deduction for it.

Very much depends whether he continues to think that being some sort of luck pervert is the way to stay up, or whether he uses the next fornight to get together an actual tactical plan and we start to put together performances worthy of picking up points. If his survival strategy is sodomising himself with horseshoes while wanking over rabbits feet, still get him gone.

I swear to God I say this every week, what we're playing is not pragmatic football. pragmatic football is playing to the strengths of the players you've got available and the opposition you're facing, even if you'd rather play a different style. we are not playing to the strengths of our squad, and we're setting up exactly the same at arsenal as at home to Everton. the comparison to Rodgers 21/22 is spot on. our underlying stats that season were crap, but we were out performing them in results so people declared everything to be fine, and it was fine until it wasn't. relying on yourself to just outperform your underlying stats is foolish and you will get stung. no team is outperforming it's xGA by more. Hermansen is already +4.3 on his PSxG (meaning he's prevented 4.3 goals more than you'd expect an average keeper to concede), that'd have him 5th in the rankings from last season, behind only Sa, Pickford, Muric and Martinez. depending on the xG model used, we're either first or second for exceeding our xG (depending on the model man city are either ahead of us or just behind us), but man city have an inhumanly good robot up top. fbrefs model has us already having scored 4 more than we should have. No team has a worse xG than us. our underlying stats are absolutely rancid and has us very much relying on our forwards massively outperforming the minimal chances they're getting, and Hermansen continuing to look like a genuinely elite level keeper. this is the start of Cooper's lead and already we look like we have no plan besides get lucky.

they didn't even make sense as subs. we were getting pinned in, vardy was seeing nothing. Bringing on Edouard wasn't ever going to change anything, at that point the change needed was to change out two of Ndidi, Skipp and Ayew, regain control of that centre midfield area

he was crap. literally all anyone can say for him is "he wins free kicks" but is that actually a good thing? he's got the first touch of a cart horse and on the press he arrives 5-7 business days after the ball has gone. first half everything good in our attack avoided him, second half his ambling about, making Soumare look like a reincarnation of Iain Hume, played a huge part in allowing Bournemouth the freedom to just keep attacking

problem is it still turns in to ping pong, still into a game where we lack control. we win the free kick and then what? lift it forward to a team with barely two players worth a jot in the air, ceding possession in exactly the same places we would if Facundo and Mavididi were given the ball to run with. in reality, all it lowers is our own momentum, ending chances of catching them on the transition

it's an important stat, I'll give you that, but the point of stats and of analytics is to avoid being reactionary, to avoid basing opinions solely on results. we may be one of the few teams to have scored in every game but the underlying data suggests we're lucky to have done so, creating barely a goals worth of chances a game, behind every other club, and only man city are outperforming their xG by more. our goals against may be suitably lower mid table (15th) but our xGA is one of the two worst in the division, no team is outperforming it's xGA more than us. The problem is that regression to the mean is a merciless bastard. a top quality keeper will outperform their xGA, a top striker will out perform his xG, but unless we're seriously claiming that Hermansen, Buonanotte and 2024 Vardy are elite talents, regression to the mean will hit us hard, and when it does, we'll find our place as a team that would do well to pass 25 points. Ayew I couldn't disagree more, he was ineffectual at best, a liability at worst, his first instinct is safety, to turn back in, to invite pressure and win a free kick. the simple ball out to Facundo, to Stephy, was on so many times to create counters, and every time it was safety first, get a free kick and slow the game down. it suits Cooper's plan down to the ground, the man is a coward, but it's hideous to watch and rarely if ever will a team be effective doing it.

we won't see that though, we won't ever see that while Cooper is in charge because he's a coward. he can't balance an attack and a defence (which in reality means his midfield set up is wrong, there's no link in the team) so he just won't attack

constructive. Go on then, what has been impressive from Ayew so far? alternatively, maybe you'd like to dispute the stats? they're from understat and are all freely available

Ayew has been utterly shit so far, even today all he did was kill attacks. we've not been thrashed by luck, not tactics. we're creating less than any other team in the division, we're giving up more than any team besides Ipswich, who've already played Liverpool and Man city. we should have been absolutely pumped at arsenal but for a generational performance from Hermansen. we're not going to top that mini league come May under Cooper, we'll finish bottom two

Ricardo gone for a nominal fee, Abdul loaned out, in come Serge Aurier and Neal Maupay

we've not really been defensively tight, mads had the highest PsXG - Goals conceded ratio in the division prior to today. what we've been defensively is more lucky than anything. even after today our xGA is the second worst in the division, ahead of only Ipswich. our xG is the worst in the division because, as you say, he's a coward. the signs are there for a 19th/20th place finish, and when we hit November/December and play Brighton, Chelsea, Liverpool and Man city, that's where we'll be

why are you so desperate for us to go down? see how it's as ridiculous as claiming we want to lose to get rid of Cooper?

Edouard putting in a cameo that makes Trevor Benjamin look like the original mbappe, genuinely embarrassing

exactly where we won't be come the end of the season when we're relying on dumb luck to get any points at all and the managers set up invites pressure every game

still needs to go, he can't set up a team or manage a game for shit. Bournemouth hitting post, bar and getting disallowed for offside, and a wonder goal by Facundo... if we'd lost by 2 he could have complained a jot. I mean he still would but he'd look a clown.