The Doctor

eh, by absolute standards sure, but it's like saying Liz Truss isn't a fool because you don't become a politician and reach the office of PM while being a fool, but by the standards of other politicians, she's a ****ing clown, much as this depressionball merchant is by the standards of other top flight managers.

yep. the 4-0 defeat that basically ended Rodgers good start

debatable. I'd suggest only a fool would spend 8m on a winger/striker who gets booked more than he scores, and then play said winger over two wingers that had come off fantastic seasons the year before

4-3 immediately makes me think of that Wolves game. 3-0 up at half time and ****ed it up

you're optimistic. 3 minutes maybe

the way the bbc article is talking, it's going to people who are in mental health hospitals, not out patients like your mate.

mental health facilities in this country are stretched to breaking point. if you're in one, it's because you are currently a danger to yourself or others - the moment you're not, you're getting discharged to make room for the next person. that is not a situation to be looking for work in

because harassing people in mental health crises for not contributing enough to society can exacerbate those crises?

the ethics of it are absolutely vile tbh, like you don't end up in hospital for mental health issues for something minor. The very last thing someone in hospital for mental health issues needs is someone from the DWP needling them to get back to work. genuine possibility that this idea causes suicides.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c98y09n8201o got to be a genuinely cartoonish level of evil to manage to pull the sort of shit even the blue Tories didn't, **** me.

nothing to do with people having tickets for both, everything to do with the sheer levels of congestion and difficulty policing that would come from it

Really want to know who that keeper chucking in a goal a game is.

first clean sheet is good but gonna be honest didn't get the tactics or subs, starting with Mace up top then never bringing on an actual striker.

huge save Janina

Jesus. you are allowed to just get it clear, don't have to play out from our own box when their shots are blocked girls

if the commentator pronounces Tierney tea-urn-knee one more time I'm gonna throw something

true, he had similar levels of under performance vs xG at Chelsea with the likes of Aubameyang, Felix, Havertz and you can start to ask is it he had bad strikers, is it a degree of not being good at coaching finishing?

only if you apply a particular way of viewing the underlying numbers and also misapply it slightly. let's take last seasons xPts model and look not at the exact number of points but the average positional difference in actual table vs expected table: the average difference is 2.3 positions, driven massively by West Ham and Man Utd drastically over performing their expected position by 5 places each. unsurprising then that Man Utd have started pretty poorly. the season before, 2.1 places out, driven by us underperforming by 6 positions and Fulham over performing by 6. Fulham then slipped back by 4 places the following season. this trend tends to hold, the xTable vs the actual table on average has around a 2 position difference. So, while the points tally may not be wholly in agreement, the relative points tallies generally are more so - a team which on the underlying data is 19th are unlikely to be much beyond 16th/17th. You can say that well, 17th is all you need, but it's a pretty massive gamble that you'll get that level of outlying from the underlying data, and that it will go in your favour, and then what? you might outperform it for a season, but it's a reasonable predictor of ongoing performance unless you make significant changes

probably to do with the rate at which he gets yellow cards (man had more yellows than goals for Palace)

are you willing to o consider the possibility that he's a bit cowardly as a manager, and decided that the 1-0 lead was to be defended, not extended?

it does yes, and there's a fair argument that you'd expect the defensive unit to improve given Okoli and even Kristensen to an extent are new to it, but the counter argument is that it's not the defending that's the issue but the passiveness in front of it, the tendency to bunker up. if you cede territory constantly, giving up chances is inevitable, even if you had a defensive unit of Maldini-Cannavaro-Baresi-Lahm.

what I'd say there is you have to be a truly generational talent to continue at this rate. Mads post shot xG difference is +4.3 (i.e. of the shots he's faced on target, he's saved 4.3 additional goals). that's over 7 games. over a season that'd become saving 23 additional goals. fbref currently seems to be down but I don't think I've ever seen a keeper top +10 over a full season. that said, an effective way of defending is in attacking. if you park 10 in your own box, you'll face waves and waves of chances. if you pose a threat on the counter, even just bringing it away, you lower that - the opposition can't score if you've got the ball in their defensive third after all. the lack of bravery in attacking is why we concede so many chances.

it's a fair question, and given this is the Cooper out thread and we were allegedly close to Potter it is worth the comparison that Potters teams, both Brighton and Chelsea, consistently underperformed their xG, creating but not finishing. It does point potentially towards a deficiency or strength in coaching where teams consistently over/underperform. whether it does with Cooper, well his full season with forest was about par the course for the xG/xGA data.

understat is probably the easiest way to do this for xG/xGA as you can date filter. after seven games we're on 6.9 xG, 18.25 xGA, 4.24 xPts after 7 games last season Sheff Utd 5.59xG, 20.70xGA, xPts 2.26 Luton 11.11xG, 16.10xGA, xPts 7.98 Burnley 6.07xG, 13.80xGA, xPts 5.06 22/23 Leicester 6.62xG 12.75xGA, xPts 5.25 Southampton 7.26xG 9.15xGA xPts 7.97 Leeds 9.38xG 10.63xGA xPts 8.83 21/22 Norwich 5.46xG 12.85xGA, xPts 5.11 Burnley 7.09xG 12.06xGA xPts 6.26 Watford 5.01xG 13.79xGA xPts 4.63 compared to the last 9 teams to get relegated we're outperforming 5 on xG, so pretty average, outperforming just one on xGA (giving up even more chances than the average relegated side in recent years) and as a result, outperforming just that Sheff Utd side from last season in expected points. it does not look good at all.

It's not even been Goth Christmas, aka halloween yet...