Sampson

Apart from the Conservatives it seems fairly representative, but the Conservative vote has also completely collapsed amongst the under 65s and I’d imagine the demographics here are more skewed with a less proportionate amount of older 65s

To me, it’s just neoliberalism unravelling, which is also a major theme in the interwar years back when it used to be called classic liberalism. This time it hurts more because it’s fundamentally incompatible with population ageing but the reality is states in all western countries just can’t afford the burden of pension and healthcare populations where most people are over 55 and where people aren’t having enough children to add to the workforce.

I also share that concern, my main counteract would be polls show how deeply unpopular Brexit is with under 35s, I think to the point where around 80% of under 35s oppose it and want to rejoin the EU in polls and Farage and Reform at least will always be tarnished with that brush amongst the younger generations. I’m not 100% convinced on the demographics argument though, but I stick to it because it gives me crumbs of comfort.

I do understand your concerns @The Doctor I am a bit concerned Starmer is just another Macron. I.e. a former left wing politician who moved to the centre-right and killed his ideas on worker rights to get power under the guise of “keep the far right out” but then throughout his reign just moved the ovartan window further and further right until the far right get power anyway. I’m also extremely cynical of this “look what Starmer said 4 years ago” line. I was quite excited by Starmer when he came in. I thought he’d improve worker rights, move us back towards the eu and change the voting system but he’s abandoned all that The one saving grace for me, is that the far right score well with the young in France and at least until now score well with the old in the UK, so demographics suggest their support will actually shrink in 5-10 years time. Largely because I think they’re seen as one of the main cultivators for Brexit in the UK which all polls show is deeply unpopular with under 40s, as many younger people feel like their opportunities have been robbed from them by the old because of.

On that note. Noticed reading in the French election today that they have a set number of seats for Brits who live abroad. I know we have a 17th century voting system but it seems bizarre to me we don’t have that. Having to vote in a constituency you haven’t lived for years seems odd. Not to mention the issues which are more important to Brits living abroad are naturally going to be different to those of people living in the UK, it makes sense to give them their own seats proportional to the number of people on the overseas voting register.

It was to do with the voting style referendum not the EU referendum. 15 years seems an arbitrarily long time for a culture not to change course. We don’t keep the same party in power because well people voted for it 15 years ago when the world looked very different. If polls show public opinion changes on any issue though why wait for 15 years?

13 years isn’t a short space of time at all. The demographics of the voting people's as well as popular opinion, culture and technology changes dramatically in that time. We change laws and governments in way less time than that all the time, as public opinion changes, governments should change choice too. Giving a vote only once in a blue moon doesn’t sound very democratic to me. I remember polls showing public opinion completely changed from being against to overwhelming for on same sex marriage within the space of like 3 or 4 years during the late 00’s for example.

Exactly. Several of the main parties advocate for PR and refusing to vote for it isn’t going to cause change. People should have the right not to vote, but refusing to vote because you want the system to change strikes me as incredibly counter-intuitive. You don’t have to vote Labour or Tory and even if the smaller party you vote for doesn’t get seats the more a party gets votes, the more they influence policy and change the discussions of the public forum.

I’m confused about your utopia. How exactly do we turn everyone into AI and computer programming specialists which probably requires everyone to have a pHD in mathematics? All that reads like to me is a country where we have mass unemployment and so the burden on the state becomes even more unsustainable as only a few have the skills needed to works.

Uhhh… what? Are we even having the same conversation. How does that help with population ageing? That just reduces the number of jobs and income from taxes even more.

For 2-3 generations absolutely. Immigration is the medium term solution, no question. The problem is that within 2-3 generations immigrants adapt to the low birth rates of their new nation and as many developing nations gets richer the pull of economic emigration goes down. You’d kind of need to keep countries, especially African countries poor to keep the steady stream of immigration to keep it being the long term solution and that’s kind of immoral. Kurgestadt did a good video on population ageing btw for people who want an understandable overview about why it’s one of the 2 biggest issues humanity face this century along with climate change Also one reason why our current 2 child benefit cap is so baffling and counter intuitive when we need to be trying to get people to have more than 2 children.

Reality is I think you’d be just moving a hell of a lot of people from one benefit to another from their pension to job seekers or disability benefits. That’s why it’s such a difficult issue.

Someone should do the meme to Lionel Hutz’ business card

This is another huge issue with population ageing too and why it’s not just a test on public finances and the economy but also democracy. When the average voting age rises and rises and people understandably don’t want to be told your pension you’ve worked hard for all your life and they live in and are told all your life you have the right too is costing the country too much and needs taxing or reducing it’s understandable that people would feel miffed and will not vote for that party. Which leaves politicians in a catch-22 with regards to population ageing. We saw the riots that happened in France just because of raising the retirement age by 2 years. You can say “older people should work longer” as well but in reality it’s harder and harder for people over 70 to either be physically capable of so much labour or of being actually able to find a job as many companies just won’t hire older people.

Still think the biggest problem facing both uk and most of the west is population ageing. We spend as much on the NHS as ever but it’s broken because our population is way older and so requires way more use of the NHS . We have way more 80+ year olds and way fewer 18-30 year olds than we did 30 years ago. And people aged 80+ cost the state tenfold more than those under 30 to support each in terms of both pensions and healthcare. The pension system was designed when people would live to 70 for a nice end to the live for 5 years or so, but now it’s quite common for people to collect their pension for 25-30 years while also needing more care and operations etc. I know it’s a very uncomfortable truth, which is why no politician will touch it with a barge pole and instead it’s way easier to blame immigrants, but the older population are unfortunately a much bigger problem to the state finances than immigrants and in fact the reason we need so many foreign workers in the health and care sectors are to deal with the continuously out of whack ratio of people of retirement age to people of tax paying age.

It’s funny how terrified the Tories are

First round of voting in the French election today. Frighteningly good chance that a western country could fall to the far right.

Fixed that for you

Still wonder if Fuchsntf ever got to see his 70th birthday

Hate this argument tbh. Plenty of people tried to reason, listen to and give grounded arguments on the benefits of EU membership during the referendum but were met with just “project fear” and “you don’t believe in Britain” over and over again. I remember a Jacob Rees-Mogg speech where he got people cheering by just saying (paraphrasing) “all these experts claiming Brexit will be bad for the UK have no faith. This is the UK of Trafalgar, D-day and Agincourt who always battle against the odds”. It was just blind calls for patriotism. I think the idea that it’s people criticising Reform voters who are the ones at fault for people voting Reform and that we don’t listen to them is a nonsense tbh. Plenty of people listen to them and try to give grounded arguments against voting for Reform but none of it sinks in above 3 word sloganeering and blind calls for patriotism.

Beaten to it -

The world is on fire

Oh they can. Campaign advertising now has people simulating literally being in the firing line if you vote Labour. This is the cultivating a culture of nastiness and negativity I keep talking about. How are these things healthy for society? It’s what the Tories do, just sew and create a culture of hatred and division. Regardless of economic and social political beliefs, the general attitude and environment of the country was just so much nicer 1997-2010 than it was 1979-1997 or 2010-2024.

When Starmer first came in I was hopeful as he seemed like a centre left politician more in line with Milliband than Blair, but seems to have become the most right wing Labour leader ever. I do hope it’s just to get elected and he can make the country a friendlier place and less driven by constant rhetoric of division against immigrants, people on welfare and younger people.

I’m half in the same boat, half in the mindset that it isn’t so much Labour’s fault that everyone’s hope has been beaten out of them as the Tories scapegoating and nasty rhetoric for 14 years. I don’t care whether Starmer is charismatic or not but the manifesto and campaign just screams 5 more years of austerity and neoliberalism and not really the social democratic ideals the party should have. That is what depresses me over the leader, I hope it’s just a campaign tactic and things change when they’re in power but I’m cynical