Some Maths on End-of-Season Placement--Nerds Only

[Pete from the USA]

I think we can assume Leicester are done with points this season (most fans will be surprised if they score another goal). That means they end on 44 points--exactly the same as last year. 

 

With 44 points in hand, LCFC will finish in 9th place unless one of the following things happens:

 

1. Newcastle get 4 points from their last two matches against Tottenham and Chelsea

2. Crystal Palace defeat West Brom with a margin of 7 goals or more

3. Bournemouth defeat Burnley with a margin of 12 goals or more 

5. Watford defeat Man United with a margin of 14 goals or more

6. Brighton defeat both Man City and Liverpool, or get four points from these fixtures with a combined margin of 9 goals or more

7. West Ham defeat both Man United and Everton with a combined margin of 17 goals or more

 

So, LCFC are now completely imploding. But, looking at the season as a whole, a 9th place finish is not bad.

[Md9]

Those teams won't need to score that many if we concede 17 in the next 2 games ?

[Pete from the USA]

6 minutes ago, Md9 said:

Those teams won't need to score that many if we concede 17 in the next 2 games ?

That's true. If we lose the next two matches 2-0, say, then Crystal Palace only need to beat West Brom by 3 goals. Still, it's not crazy to hope for a top-half finish.

Edited 5 May 2018 by Pete from the USA

[David Guiza]

4 minutes ago, Pete from the USA said:

That's true. If we lose the next two matches 2-0, say, then Crystal Palace only need to beat West Brom by 3 goals. Still, it's not crazy to hope for a top-half finish.

 

I'd be very surprised to not get hammered by a good 4-5 goals on the final day. Particularly if Spurs need a result.

[Alf Bentley]

If we win our last 2 matches and Everton lose at West Ham, we finish 8th. 

[sishades]

Quote

If we win our last 2 matches and Everton lose at West Ham, we finish 8th.

Very funny...

[MC Prussian]

1 hour ago, Pete from the USA said:

I think we can assume Leicester are done with points this season (most fans will be surprised if they score another goal). That means they end on 44 points--exactly the same as last year. 

 

With 44 points in hand, LCFC will finish in 9th place unless one of the following things happens:

 

1. Newcastle get 4 points from their last two matches against Tottenham and Chelsea

2. Crystal Palace defeat West Brom with a margin of 7 goals or more

3. Bournemouth defeat Burnley with a margin of 12 goals or more 

5. Watford defeat Man United with a margin of 14 goals or more

6. Brighton defeat both Man City and Liverpool, or get four points from these fixtures with a combined margin of 9 goals or more

7. West Ham defeat both Man United and Everton with a combined margin of 17 goals or more

 

So, LCFC are now completely imploding. But, looking at the season as a whole, a 9th place finish is not bad.

If football consisted of stats and numbers only, I'd concur.

 

Have you actually seen us play over the past six months or so?

[Pete from the USA]

10 minutes ago, MC Prussian said:

If football consisted of stats and numbers only, I'd concur.

 

Have you actually seen us play over the past six months or so?

Yes, it is a shambles. But they were excellent before Mahrez's temper tantrum in January.