fivethirtyeight envisions the post-Brexit PL

[KingsX]

Fivethirtyeight has published a different kind of football projection: the likely impact of two Brexit scenarios on the nationalities of players in the PL.  An excerpt:

 

 

The figure above shows two future scenarios. The first is the status quo, in which EU passport holders can continue to play in the U.K. without work permits. The second explores the end of freedom of movement to the U.K. In this scenario, EU players are subject to the same immigration requirements as players from the rest of the world beginning with the 2019-20 season. That is, they require a work permit and must meet the relevant criteria.

 

In the status quo scenario, the percentage of U.K. and Irish players remains close to its present value, gradually declining over the next decade. The proportion of players from the EU increases slightly, eventually exceeding U.K. and Irish players, while those from the rest of the world remains relatively constant.

 

The end of freedom of movement scenario paints a very different picture. The proportion of EU players declines substantially — from 41 percent last season to 20 percent by 2028-29 — while the proportion of British and Irish players increases from 41 percent to 64 percent over the same period. By the end of the next decade, the EPL would begin to resemble its constitution at the end of the 1990s: Nearly two-thirds of all players would be British or Irish.

 

A large drop in the number of EU/EEA players does not necessarily imply a substantial reduction in terms of the quality of players. The money and allure of the Premier League would still entice elite players to come to play in England, at least for a while. The wealthiest clubs would continue to attract the biggest stars; the rest, on the other hand, would be forced to focus more on the domestic market. Teams often scout for potential in soccer leagues across Europe, but many of those players would no longer be allowed to make the leap. Champions League places would move even further beyond the horizons of most clubs, and “near miracles” such as Leicester’s fairytale league win — on the strength of the star turn from Riyad Mahrez, who was acquired from Le Havre in France’s second tier — would become even less likely.

 

I hope this doesn’t follow the fate of the Brexit thread, as it is entirely about the PL, and mostly avoids value judgments.  If you wish to comment, I suggest you read the whole piece at:

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/brexit-could-drastically-change-english-soccer/

 

[davieG]

Or we could introduce rules that allow players to come as they do now, nothing is fixed or some variation.

 

The issue would be more with British players playing in Europe but then not many do.

[fuchsntf]

2 hours ago, davieG said:

Or we could introduce rules that allow players to come as they do now, nothing is fixed or some variation.

 

The issue would be more with British players playing in Europe but then not many do.

Then other proffesions,would rightly demand the same allowances...or not???

 

I for one,would not like to see Sport,being given special/preferential treatment...besides it will give or force other impulses and ideas to develope

[davieG]

8 hours ago, fuchsntf said:

Then other proffesions,would rightly demand the same allowances...or not???

 

I for one,would not like to see Sport,being given special/preferential treatment...besides it will give or force other impulses and ideas to develope

Well it doesn't need to be just sport it can be doctors, nurses, engineers etc what ever we decide we need to fill gaps or to compete with other countries.

[Jon the Hat]

It will make bugger all different in the EPL, it is the lower leagues which will see far fewer international players, as they will have to be top standard to come in.  Personally think this is probably not a bad thing for academies etc.