Goalkeeper statistics

[blaaklint]

1 hour ago, ThaiFox said:

My point was that statistics are easily manipulated to make them into whatever you want them to be.

 

To give an easy example would be to say if a goalkeeper saves 2 out of 4 shots he has 50% save rate. If he saves 3 out of 4 he has a 75% save rate.....an increase of 25%, making him look far better goalkeeper.

 

A screamer straight at the goalkeeper is over performance? But a long shot with no pace which takes an unfortunate deflection off the ground, or where a defender blocks the keepers sight, and the keeper has under performed? Do statistics show, or take into account, these type of incidents?

 

I don't disagree that statistics can be interesting, but they are also very misleading. At the end of a match they mean little. 27 shots v Cardiff?

 

Lost the game 1-0. It's the only statistic that matters!

 

 

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For instance, Kasper’s CLCAA% wouldn’t have been affected by Camarasa’s goal: the shot would have been valued highly.

 

In terms of number of shots: I agree, it is a fairly meaningless statistic. But that’s why we try to develop new stats, to take account of this. xG is an example, trying to quantify the probability of a player scoring from a situation. It shows our 27 shots against Cardiff, probabilistically, should have become 2.0 goals, giving 0.07 xG per shot. Firstly, that’s pretty awfully low, but it’s not necessarily a problem. Lots of teams prefer lots of low-value shots over a few high-value shots, which Puel seemed to like. But also, it shows that we’re terrible at finishing rather than particularly struggling with chance creation. Basic stats can be meaningless, but modelling like xG and PSxG attempt to avoid this.

 

Ultimately, the score is all that matters but, because football is so low-scoring, a team can play much worse than their opponent and win, or better and lose, very easily. But the stats do give us some way to quantify performance.

[fuchsntf]

25 minutes ago, blaaklint said:

For instance, Kasper’s CLCAA% wouldn’t have been affected by Camarasa’s goal: the shot would have been valued highly.

 

In terms of number of shots: I agree, it is a fairly meaningless statistic. But that’s why we try to develop new stats, to take account of this. xG is an example, trying to quantify the probability of a player scoring from a situation. It shows our 27 shots against Cardiff, probabilistically, should have become 2.0 goals, giving 0.07 xG per shot. Firstly, that’s pretty awfully low, but it’s not necessarily a problem. Lots of teams prefer lots of low-value shots over a few high-value shots, which Puel seemed to like. But also, it shows that we’re terrible at finishing rather than particularly struggling with chance creation. Basic stats can be meaningless, but modelling like xG and PSxG attempt to avoid this.

 

Ultimately, the score is all that matters but, because football is so low-scoring, a team can play much worse than their opponent and win, or better and lose, very easily. But the stats do give us some way to quantify performance.

@ThaiFox   might also want to say..and maybe thought a taboo subject.....

 

Vardy probably missed more ,or not converted an higher %. Compared to Schmeichels discrepencies....both past hero-legend status..

Vardy gets his critics.... 

But Schmeichel is being lambasted...

That can also be said of any Striker-G.Keeper comparisons ,I suppose..

But quite a few have mentioned..games cost!!!  If Vardy/etc ..top quality chances had been converted,we would of been well ahead of the game...!!

not Forgetting,even with Puel,we created probably more,this season than for a longtime...

Should M.city fans rip Aguero one,Chelsea on chances should of won the CCup.but it was their gk who made headlines!!!

 

I doubt Schmeichel is going anywhere....he's a GK. Belongs to the most arrogant animals on the football field...so were,Shilton,Yes.. G.Banks..L.Yashin

Kahn,..Every top GK...

Me I am a weird barsteward...on foxestalk,but a gentle giant,and really,calm and collected off it....oh..!! Depends if my wife and kids have upset me.!

 

[volpeazzurro]

1 hour ago, fuchsntf said:

@ThaiFox   might also want to say..and maybe thought a taboo subject.....

 

Vardy probably missed more ,or not converted an higher %. Compared to Schmeichels discrepencies....both past hero-legend status..

Vardy gets his critics.... 

But Schmeichel is being lambasted...

That can also be said of any Striker-G.Keeper comparisons ,I suppose..

But quite a few have mentioned..games cost!!!  If Vardy/etc ..top quality chances had been converted,we would of been well ahead of the game...!!

not Forgetting,even with Puel,we created probably more,this season than for a longtime...

Should M.city fans rip Aguero one,Chelsea on chances should of won the CCup.but it was their gk who made headlines!!!

 

I doubt Schmeichel is going anywhere....he's a GK. Belongs to the most arrogant animals on the football field...so were,Shilton,Yes.. G.Banks..L.Yashin

Kahn,..Every top GK...

Me I am a weird barsteward...on foxestalk,but a gentle giant,and really,calm and collected off it....oh..!! Depends if my wife and kids have upset me.!

 

I think that is a fair post and a good analogy between Schmeichel and Vardy and people's different level of tolerance between the two due in part to their positions on the pitch. Hero he may be, but Vardy has been poor in his overall play by his very high standards this season despite those wanting a myriad of excuses for him. There was uproar when he was dropped, whatever the reason but, if we had got a viable alternative, I personally would have dropped him before that and perhaps Puel would have done as well, who knows. Do I think he's finished?  No. Is he still a hero to me? Yes.

 

Schmeichel isn't as straight forward a case though as with him we do have a viable alternative in Ward who, for very practical reasons, it would be good to see him get a few games before the end of the season. Schmeichel again by comparison with previous seasons has been poor yet it seems with him to be because of the same old weaknesses that have dogged him since his Man City days when Sven has openly said, was the reason he always favoured Hart over him rightly or wrongly. His command of his area is not only poor, it has now become none existent. Why is this? He and any coach has to be very aware of it. What efforts has he made to rectify this if any? Surely at the end of every training session,  a hostile penalty area zone for him could be recreated with some of our bigger players whilst balls are pumped into the box (presumably there could be a machine to do this rather than rely on Maddison or they'd only get one in five decent set pieces ?). It's no good having the sort of crossing practice he gets pre- match day warm up as he needs to be under severe pressure. I feel that he's so comfortable without a good alternative challenging him that he's taking it all for granted and gone stale. Goalkeepers by nature do all seem to be overconfident and a bit mad but I can see why they have to be,  it's a lonely unforgiving job. They do need managing effectively though which is where I think the problem lies ie he appears to be too close to the owners which would be a nightmare for a manager. He needs taking down a peg or two imo and dropping until it can be seen he's been working hard on his deficiencies. Rodgers won't get a better chance than now because Top is highly unlikely to sack him this quickly and any sudden whining by Schmeichel may just wake Top up to the sort of player he may be. Call Schmeichel's bluff now and he'll either sink or swim!

[ThaiFox]

20 hours ago, fuchsntf said:

@ThaiFox   might also want to say..and maybe thought a taboo subject.....

 

Vardy probably missed more ,or not converted an higher %. Compared to Schmeichels discrepencies....both past hero-legend status..

Vardy gets his critics.... 

But Schmeichel is being lambasted...

That can also be said of any Striker-G.Keeper comparisons ,I suppose..

But quite a few have mentioned..games cost!!!  If Vardy/etc ..top quality chances had been converted,we would of been well ahead of the game...!!

not Forgetting,even with Puel,we created probably more,this season than for a longtime...

Should M.city fans rip Aguero one,Chelsea on chances should of won the CCup.but it was their gk who made headlines!!!

 

I doubt Schmeichel is going anywhere....he's a GK. Belongs to the most arrogant animals on the football field...so were,Shilton,Yes.. G.Banks..L.Yashin

Kahn,..Every top GK...

Me I am a weird barsteward...on foxestalk,but a gentle giant,and really,calm and collected off it....oh..!! Depends if my wife and kids have upset me.!

 

Very good points.

 

And again it illustrates just how easy it can be to criticize by using statistics.

 

But maybe the one statistic that is useful in football is the penalty kick. If a goalkeeper has studied statistics there is more chance of him guessing correctly. But again, a lot of luck comes into play here too.

 

Just by making one more save, or scoring one more goal, completely changes a picture.

 

And there is little taken into account for the luck. A goal scored with a deflection off the knee, a lucky deflection off the ass, a bad bounce, a wet ball, off the post and in, off the post and out, etc, etc.

 

Without checking back, can anyone say how many shots we had against Everton at home? How many saves Kasper made against Chelsea away? How many interceptions we had against Man City at home? How much possession we had against Liverpool away?

 

But I bet we can all remember the results, 1-2, 0-1, 2-1. 1-1.