Tabou Posted 8 September 2008 Posted 8 September 2008 The government have committments to increasing the number of new homes to house the ever-increasing population in this country. This is done by the goverment allocating areas of brown/green field that can be turned into areas of residential accommodation. This land is then sold to property developers such as Taylor Wimpey, Miller, Barratts, David Wilson Homes etc, who build the houses.If house prices continue to fall, there will be no point of these developers building new homes, as their margins are being squeezed to death at the moment as it is (unless, of course the land & construction costs fall in line with the house prices, which is extremely unlikely). Most of these developers have already cut back on future land purchases & are even suspending work on their current developments - you have prime examples out in Kibworth, where DWH have downed tools and at Freemens Meadows by the Walkers, where Barratts have stopped building halfway through the construction of the new block of apartments. With a lack of new homes being built, this would cause the government a lot of problems meeting their targets for increasing housing levels to support the expanding population, and would also see demand for 'old' houses increase considerably. What effect do you think this would have on the house prices? The government has a vested interest in ensuring the housing market doesn't go tits up and it is for this reason that I don't imagine house prices will, in the long term, fall much further than they're currently at. Agree totally. What is it that you do for a living andyh1884?
andyh1884 Posted 8 September 2008 Posted 8 September 2008 <_< This is becoming the norm. Which is not good news for us, as we don't get any business. There is a big problem with dual pricing at the moment (banks offering better deals in house than the deal they allow an IFA to offer). Another silver lining in this housing crash is that there will be alot of poor IFA firms and Estate Agencies that pack up and fook off. Wheat from the Chaff sort of thing. Aha, but dear Tabou, at some point I will need to sort out a new deal when the market picks up, and I will be looking for a new IFA as mrs andyh1884 says she never wants to see our current one ever again as he is, and I quote, a disgusting, chauvinistic pr ick. Provided you couldn't be described in a similar way, I'd be more than happy for you to advise me edit: to answer your question I am an accountant for a property developer, although only for another 22 days, then I'll be a treasury manager for a rail company
Tabou Posted 8 September 2008 Posted 8 September 2008 Aha, but dear Tabou, at some point I will need to sort out a new deal when the market picks up, and I will be looking for a new IFA as mrs andyh1884 says she never wants to see our current one ever again as he is, and I quote, a disgusting, chauvinistic pr ick.Provided you couldn't be described in a similar way, I'd be more than happy for you to advise me edit: to answer your question I am an account for a property developer, although only for another 22 days, then I'll be a treasury manager for a rail company Ohh, err, hmm. I'll refer you to a colleague then....
Narborough Bod Posted 8 September 2008 Posted 8 September 2008 A plateau is a straight line is it not.... That's one funny straight line!! Drops are around 2% a month (£3000 a month on a house worth £150,000). These are the biggest/quickest falls since the last crash and we haven't even gone into recession yet. Prices are only going one way unfortunately no matter what the government do. Prices will go up... in the very long term, it's going to take quite a while to reach the peak of 2007 again. With many estimating as much as 10 years!! It's only a good time to buy if you can secure a BIG reduction in asking price!!!! IF a house is on the market now for £150,000, I personally wouldn't pay more than £135,000. And that's me being generous. I'm planning to buy around May/June next year. I will still benefit from the stamp duty break, but i'll also benefit from any further falls (i'd estimate another 8-10% minimum if the climate continues) For those who need to buy there's no problem, as long as it's viewed with realism that it might be a decade before the price of your house shows any gains worth mentioning. Interesting graph, I was looking to buy a second property last year as a retirement fund but didn't go through with it. I've still been looking this year and can tell you that prices have not dropped 2% / month. I can assure you that £150k (a year ago) houses in the South of Leics are not currently on the market at £120k having lost 1/5 of their price. Also, you need to show the graph over the past 10 years to show that the drop is no where near as dramatic as you make it out to be. That graph causes the type of panic / hysteria seen in the 80's....and now. We may be at the end of the plateu and about to go over the edge, but for all the panic, we are certainly not doomed yet. btw, a plateau is the top of the curve (Economic wise) and your graph only just shows us going past the peak. Try this one for size... If I wasn't an electronic tard I could actually add the picture!! http://www.pricedout.org.uk/html/images/Na...HousePrices.png
Narborough Bod Posted 8 September 2008 Posted 8 September 2008 A plateau is a straight line is it not.... That's one funny straight line!! Drops are around 2% a month (£3000 a month on a house worth £150,000). These are the biggest/quickest falls since the last crash and we haven't even gone into recession yet. Prices are only going one way unfortunately no matter what the government do. Prices will go up... in the very long term, it's going to take quite a while to reach the peak of 2007 again. With many estimating as much as 10 years!! It's only a good time to buy if you can secure a BIG reduction in asking price!!!! IF a house is on the market now for £150,000, I personally wouldn't pay more than £135,000. And that's me being generous. I'm planning to buy around May/June next year. I will still benefit from the stamp duty break, but i'll also benefit from any further falls (i'd estimate another 8-10% minimum if the climate continues) For those who need to buy there's no problem, as long as it's viewed with realism that it might be a decade before the price of your house shows any gains worth mentioning. Interesting graph, but it shows percentage rise, NOT average price. The fact that the percentage rise has moved towards zero and only just gone negative does in fact illustrates the stagnation and thus plateauing of the market. Also, you need to show the graph over the past 10 years to show that the drop is no where near as dramatic as you make it out to be. That graph causes the type of panic / hysteria seen in the 80's....and now. We may be at the end of the plateu and about to go over the edge, but for all the panic, we are certainly not doomed yet. I was looking to buy a second property last year as a retirement fund but didn't go through with it. I've still been looking this year and can tell you that prices have not dropped 2% / month. I can assure you that £150k (a year ago) houses in the South of Leics are not currently on the market at £120k having lost 1/5 of their price. Try this one for size...If I wasn't an electronic tard I could actually add the picture!! http://www.pricedout.org.uk/html/images/Na...HousePrices.png
fox123 Posted 8 September 2008 Posted 8 September 2008 Interesting graph, but it shows percentage rise, NOT average price. The fact that the percentage rise has moved towards zero and only just gone negative does in fact illustrates the stagnation and thus plateauing of the market. Also, you need to show the graph over the past 10 years to show that the drop is no where near as dramatic as you make it out to be. That graph causes the type of panic / hysteria seen in the 80's....and now.We may be at the end of the plateu and about to go over the edge, but for all the panic, we are certainly not doomed yet. I was looking to buy a second property last year as a retirement fund but didn't go through with it. I've still been looking this year and can tell you that prices have not dropped 2% / month. I can assure you that £150k (a year ago) houses in the South of Leics are not currently on the market at £120k having lost 1/5 of their price. Try this one for size...If I wasn't an electronic tard I could actually add the picture!! http://www.pricedout.org.uk/html/images/Na...HousePrices.png Wrong! About 6 months ago I was looking to buy a house in the South Leicestershire area....back then it was on the market for £168,000. The house is still on the market, but its current value is £125,000!
Bellend Sebastian Posted 8 September 2008 Posted 8 September 2008 The bloke from the Nationwide isn't being very bullish on this: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7604894.stm Personally I think things will get worse before they get better, mainly because things are already pretty bad - no-one is buying at the moment. The asking prices in the property guide in the Merc don't look like they've moved much, but that doesn't mean people are paying that if they're even buying at all. I've just come back from London, where my mate has been trying to sell his very desirable property but no one's interested. There is such a dearth of buyers where he is that no-one is really sure what the properties are worth now, because even those who have slashed their prices aren't getting any takers, so you're getting lots of very similar properties for sale in an area on the market for wildly different amounts. That's not really happened up here yet but the few people I know who are trying to sell their houses have had next to sod all interest in them - a handful of viewings in months, and no offers at all. In the same way that people thought the market would keep going up and up forever, they now think it's just going to go down and down. A lot of people out there aren't very sophisticated and can only relate to what the market's doing at this precise moment in time, so the majority of potential buyers will be thinking they could buy a property for less months or years down the line rather than that they're getting a bargain now. Working in investments as I do, I see this thinking nearly every day, because it applies to all sorts of assets that go up and down in value, not just property by any means. Things will have to level out and be steady for ages before confidence returns. I wouldn't say particularly to people not to buy property though, because this stuff always works its way through and though it might be painful for a couple of years, over the longer term you'll still be glad you did it
hebangsthedrums Posted 8 September 2008 Posted 8 September 2008 i can't be bothered to post at length but I'm pleased with the current downturn. I feel sorry for those in trouble but prices were/are insane and it was unsustainable. The only ones I don't feel sorry for are 'property developers' who watched all th eproperty porn shows and thought it was a piece of piss and ar enow getting burned. Fact is if you could afford the mortgage yes you would make money buying then selling in 2 years purely because of the price rises (not the shitty 60 minute make over 'development'). Now that prices are on the way down we'll see how easy it is, and how many people boast about their million pound 'portfolios' - like anything a house is worth what someone is willing to pay. As for buying now, anyone in fairly usual circumstances would be mental. Even if your planning to stay for a few years. The stat is something like you pay double the purchase price of thehouse before you own it outright - to buy now and not when it is 20k/30k cheaper is costing you 40/60k
Narborough Bod Posted 8 September 2008 Posted 8 September 2008 Wrong!About 6 months ago I was looking to buy a house in the South Leicestershire area....back then it was on the market for £168,000. The house is still on the market, but its current value is £125,000! ffs OK, in general, prices in the South of Leics are not falling by that much. If a houses value has fallen by a quarter then there will be extenuating circumstances and it definitely isn't the norm. eg 3 walls. Send us the details for this wonder property and I bet we can pick it to pieces and give a reason for this ludicrous drop.
MC Prussian Posted 22 September 2008 Posted 22 September 2008 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2t8YTvdYXws
Collymore Posted 23 September 2008 Posted 23 September 2008 Unless you've been living in a cave in the for the last few months you will have noticed that house prices are gradually falling. Fortunately I am not a home owner currently, but it begs the question to others how will you cope if the inevitable happens? House prices are on average about 11% lower that a year ago. So if you were a first time buyer who bought about 12-18 months ago then it would be the most worrying for you All is not gloom, I'm sure those who bought houses 25 years ago will still have made a massive return on their investment in real terms. I think the governments move in the last week has been desperate and will only make the issue worse. Many houses valued at around 200k by estate agents will now have to be dropped to the stamp duty threshold just to tempt buyers. Then there is the problem is lost tax revenue, I think it's costing the government 600m to do this, and is currently unfunded? It's a worrying thing, coupled with the shared equity scheme, which is just another desperate attempt to prop up an already over valued house market. This is unfortunately politically popular to those who can't see through the spin. With the FTSE 100 dropping to a 6 year low yesterday, it is certainly a worrying time for this country economically. Totally opposite outlook. I'm glad I did buy when the market was freeer, I personally wouldn't want to be looking now.
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