Trav Le Bleu Posted 21 April 2010 Posted 21 April 2010 It's the best way! Maybe - cos statistically (at least in the Champoinship/old Div 2) the 3rd place team have most commonly gone on to win the play off final But the way I see it, if Forest rest players, they lose their sharpness. Plus they lose matches because of it, which surely knocks morale. I'm not so sure Billy Davies knows what he's doing there. Meanwhile, I'm kinda glad we had that run of poor form a few matches back. It's done and dusted, gone, we're through it... hopefully. If (ok, it might be a big if) we beat Preston and Boro, we will come into the play-offs surfing on the crest of a wave, be the form team. Anyway, if anyones interested (and I'm sure someone somewhere must have posted these stats elsewhere, but I'm sorry, this is my own research and their result.) here are the number of times the teams finishing in 3rd to 6th have gone on to win the play-off final in the Championship/old 2nd div. (The very first play-off final was of course won by a 1st division team, Charlton, for their right to remain in the rejigged, slighty smaller 1st Division, so that isn't included) 3rd - 8 4th - 4 5th - 6 6th - 4 So the odds aren't too bad on the team that finishes 5th! Cardiff are the team that worry me most though.
leftsideoverhere Posted 21 April 2010 Posted 21 April 2010 Can't be arsed to do the maths, but it looks to me like the only thing you can draw from that sample size (and yes, I know you can't get a bigger sample at the moment) is that the variation could be statistically insignificant. In other words, the play-offs look like a complete lottery.
davieG Posted 21 April 2010 Posted 21 April 2010 Can't be arsed to do the maths, but it looks to me like the only thing you can draw from that sample size (and yes, I know you can't get a bigger sample at the moment) is that the variation could be statistically insignificant. In other words, the play-offs look like a complete lottery. When you consider how we lost/won our play-off games lottery sounds apt.
leicesterfox86 Posted 21 April 2010 Posted 21 April 2010 It's the best way! Maybe - cos statistically (at least in the Champoinship/old Div 2) the 3rd place team have most commonly gone on to win the play off final But the way I see it, if Forest rest players, they lose their sharpness. Plus they lose matches because of it, which surely knocks morale. I'm not so sure Billy Davies knows what he's doing there. Meanwhile, I'm kinda glad we had that run of poor form a few matches back. It's done and dusted, gone, we're through it... hopefully. If (ok, it might be a big if) we beat Preston and Boro, we will come into the play-offs surfing on the crest of a wave, be the form team. Anyway, if anyones interested (and I'm sure someone somewhere must have posted these stats elsewhere, but I'm sorry, this is my own research and their result.) here are the number of times the teams finishing in 3rd to 6th have gone on to win the play-off final in the Championship/old 2nd div. (The very first play-off final was of course won by a 1st division team, Charlton, for their right to remain in the rejigged, slighty smaller 1st Division, so that isn't included) 3rd - 8 4th - 4 5th - 6 6th - 4 So the odds aren't too bad on the team that finishes 5th! Cardiff are the team that worry me most though. Why Cardiff? They always bottle it! We will have just as good a chance as everyone else and at the moment, I would back us to beat anyone in the playoffs over two legs.
Guest Mee-9 Posted 21 April 2010 Posted 21 April 2010 Normally a team you dont expect wins the playoffs. At the moment I'd say thats us.
Sooper Steve's shin Posted 21 April 2010 Posted 21 April 2010 Normally a team you dont expect wins the playoffs. At the moment I'd say thats us. But that means you expect us to win, so it's not.
Sooper Steve's shin Posted 21 April 2010 Posted 21 April 2010 Personally, I am bricking it on the nightmare scenario that we cock up against Preston and Middlesborough with Blackpool winning their two, very easy games against Peterborough and Bristol City. This weekend's game is massive for us. If we lose, it's going to bring the gap to one point and all the momentum with Blackpool. We will be nervous as hell on 2 May, at home, jittery crowd - it could so easily go pear-shaped.
Guest Bilo Posted 21 April 2010 Posted 21 April 2010 I think with play-offs, form is absolutely key. If Blackpool overhaul Swansea by winning their last two and we beat Preston and Boro, I'd back us to beat Cardiff and them to beat Forest over two legs purely on momentum. Forest are very likely to blow their away leg whoever they play with no wins on the road since January, and it's very difficult to turn a defeat in the away leg around if your opposition keeps it tight. We've beaten every side in the play-off shake up at home this season but lost to Forest, Cardiff and Swansea away. Yet only in the Forest game were we outclassed, and it's fair to say that both teams have changed some since that game. Blackpool have momentum and confidence, but if we did end up meeting them we'd have the confidence from having done the double over them. Swansea are a tough side to beat, especially at home, but do not score enough goals and that could be their downfall. Cardiff are the team that worry me most but even they didn't cover themselves with glory in their games against us.
Guest Mee-9 Posted 21 April 2010 Posted 21 April 2010 But that means you expect us to win, so it's not. No. I meant a team people don't expect to win, Everyone will be thinking it's Cardiffs or Forests. Not many people would back us to go up.
Tilley Posted 21 April 2010 Posted 21 April 2010 As it stands we've got the toughest possible semi final.
Karljohn Posted 21 April 2010 Posted 21 April 2010 I don't see Blackpool beating Peterborough, those players were playing for pride, now their playing for contracts under Gary Johnson and Blackpool will get a response on the back of a 6-0 defeat! Don't mind who we get in the play offs, and I don't care if we play the 2nd leg away, the way we have knocked the ball around in the past few games suggests we can put 3-4 past anyone in this league whether they are 3rd or 23rd, do the job in the 1st leg and stick Alex Bruce alongside Jack and Browny for the 2nd leg and shut up shop! simples!
Corky Posted 21 April 2010 Posted 21 April 2010 Personally, I am bricking it on the nightmare scenario that we cock up against Preston and Middlesborough with Blackpool winning their two, very easy games against Peterborough and Bristol City. This weekend's game is massive for us. If we lose, it's going to bring the gap to one point and all the momentum with Blackpool. We will be nervous as hell on 2 May, at home, jittery crowd - it could so easily go pear-shaped. I expect them to beat Peterborough, but Bristol City an easy game? Don't agree with that. Anyway, Swansea are currently most vulnerable, and with two tough matches themselves, it could well be the Swans who miss out.
Guest Posted 22 April 2010 Posted 22 April 2010 We just have to take care of business. It's in our hands. Said for quite a while it'll be Cardiff over two legs that we beat and then we'll beat the trees at Wembley - a dream of many City fans all our lives. Next season though could be a misery!
DANGEROUS TIGER Posted 23 April 2010 Posted 23 April 2010 At the end of the day, it's all about ability combined with confidence. All four teams are capable of this. Let's just hope it's us.
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