leicsmac

"A man once jumped from the top floor of a burning house in which many members of his family had already perished. He managed to save his life; but as he was falling he hit a person standing down below and broke that person’s legs and arms. The jumping man had no choice; yet to the man with the broken limbs he was the cause of his misfortune. If both behaved rationally, they would not become enemies. The man who escaped from the blazing house, having recovered, would have tried to help and console the other sufferer; and the latter might have realized that he was the victim of circumstances over which neither of them had control. But look what happens when these people behave irrationally. The injured man blames the other for his misery and swears to make him pay for it. The other, afraid of the crippled man’s revenge, insults him, kicks him, and beats him up whenever they meet. The kicked man again swears revenge and is again punched and punished. The bitter enmity, so fortuitous at first, hardens and comes to overshadow the whole existence of both men and to poison their minds." — Isaac Deutscher

Record in one place and time? 1976, 35.6 degrees C. Record for average across the month, which tends to have a greater impact? 2023, nearly a full degree Celsius hotter than 1976 - or almost all other years, come to that. https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/articles/czxwkgg41gno goes into more detail. So yes, though it isn't hitting us in the UK that hard (yet), the change is being felt. Edit: for graphical representation...

Wasn't meant to be, just stating fact about the future.

Stick around for a while, and you might find the UK climate entirely agreeable to you. Whether that will actually be good for the future as a whole is clearly up to the beholder.

The whole thing is rather more complex than some of those on all sides would like to reduce it to. And that's a big part of the problem in of itself.

I think it's played havoc with all age groups in its own way.

The hypocrisy would be hilarious were it not so dangerous for the future of... well, everything.

And record levels of wildfires so far in the UK this year too. Fun times.

It's especially complicated when for optimal effect some issues require a liberal democratic approach, and others rather more from-the-top - one government size doesn't fit all. And getting that optimal approach right is critical in some of those cases.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2l77w5pl7o Temperatures are predicted to hit 30C for the second day in London today as a heatwave continues. The east of England and the Midlands are both forecast to see highs of 28C, according to the Met Office. An amber heat health alert was issued for some areas on Friday by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) until 18:00 BST Tuesday, with temperatures set to peak on Monday. This is the second amber alert in two weeks and means weather impacts are "likely to be felt across the whole health service". The head of extreme events and health protection at UKHSA has urged people to check on those who are more vulnerable and take "sensible precautions while enjoying the sun". Ah shit, here we go again. And the summer has barely started.

International relations summed up in a comic strip:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-09085-w We estimate that global production declines 5.5 × 1014 kcal annually per 1 °C global mean surface temperature (GMST) rise (120 kcal per person per day or 4.4% of recommended consumption per 1 °C; P < 0.001). We project that adaptation and income growth alleviate 23% of global losses in 2050 and 34% at the end of the century (6% and 12%, respectively; moderate-emissions scenario), but substantial residual losses remain for all staples except rice. In contrast to analyses of other outcomes that project the greatest damages to the global poor10,11, we find that global impacts are dominated by losses to modern-day breadbaskets with favourable climates and limited present adaptation, although losses in low-income regions losses are also substantial. These results indicate a scale of innovation, cropland expansion or further adaptation that might be necessary to ensure food security in a changing climate. Take away a vital part of Maslows Hierarchy and see how people like warmer weather then.

People say, "Don't you miss it, Gal?" I say, "What, England? Nah. Fvcking place. It's a dump. Don't make me laugh. Grey, grimy, sooty. What a shit hole. What a toilet. Every cvnt with a long face shuffling about, moaning, all worried. No thanks, not for me." They say, "What's it like, then, Spain?" And I'll say, "It's hot. Hot. Oh, it's fvcking hot. Too hot? Not for me, I love it." - Gal, Sexy Beast.

Erudite. The only thing I'll add wrt the last paragraph is that though the way you describe human activity there is accurate, the cold comfort is that such a way of acting is inimical to the survival of civilisation and our species, and those who do it will "get theirs" in the end, just as a matter of evolutionary history. it's just unfortunate that a lot of our and other species will be along for the ride too.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y74nv1zqpo Health and fire warnings have been issued in countries across southern Europe, with temperatures expected to exceed 40C in some places over the weekend. Italy, Greece, France, Spain and Portugal are among the countries affected - with the Spanish city of Seville forecast to hit 42C. Hot air from North Africa, which is spreading across the Balkans to holiday destinations such as Croatia, is contributing to the soaring temperatures. BBC Weather says the heatwave is "very intense" for this time of the year -with the continent normally experiencing such high temperatures in July and early August. In Spain, emergency staff have been placed on standby to deal with a surge in heatstroke cases especially among the vulnerable including children, the elderly and those with chronic illnesses. Ugh.

Bloody awful draw for GB players all round tbh.

Agreed. That, however, doesn't discount the possibility. A coin landing on its edge is possible, though there are precious few examples of it. It is indeed impossible to inhabit a land with those basic resources, and I view that as more of a concern that what humans do to each other not because it's more threatening right now, but because the threat it represents is both absolute (in a way humans are not at the moment) and, given incorrect action by our species, inevitable. I don't disagree about the way humans have changed the world around them - both for good and for bad. However, I do still think that the consequences of nature are far more powerful than we are and we really only have existed as a civilisation in a (relative) blink of an eye in the Earth's timeline. I think it would be very easy to think we're all that, and then for that conceit to come crashing down around our heads fatally.

I will add at this point that it's a fascinating topic for discussion.

I can see the argument you make here but I'm sticking to my guns (hur hur) regarding importance on this one for a pretty simple reason: it remains possible (though very unlikely, for all the reasons you state) for a state/tribe/group to survive while without means to defend themselves from other humans, it is utterly impossible for them to do so if the place they inhabit cannot source basic food and water needs. That distinction may be small, but it is critical, I think. The only reason those nations with strong militaries and ignorant environmental policies haven't felt the weight of that decision making yet is because such consequences are often slow moving in human terms. But that doesn't mean that they aren't coming, and it doesn't mean they cannot or will not be devastating. I guess we do differ in terms of this matter because I've seen no logical reason to place our species on some pedestal and so be deserving of special favours from all other life - as far as I'm concerned, this Earth can and will destroy us if we don't do the right things, the same as a great many other species that came before us. If people think differently, then that's their prerogative, but speaking personally I think fossil records are full of species that thought they were "special"... right up to the point our natural world disabused them, often very nastily, of that notion. Don't get me wrong, there's a whole bunch of other things that have to be done right as well and you're absolutely right to suggest, given history, that groups of humans being able to defend themselves and to deal with those who abuse power is vital to their survival. However, I think it remains a reasonably obvious fact that it isn't the most key element to human survival, and therefore the one most worthy of focus.

In the world we live in, it is an important factor, but my point is that it is far from the most important one. The most important level of government decision making is the decisions that, at a basic understanding, ensure the ground remains capable of growing those crops in the first place, and the water that arrives is both timely and potable. The most basic aspect of the hierarchy of needs. Every other issue is secondary in comparison, and yet so many people - both involved in the governmental sphere and otherwise - downplay it, probably because they (mistakenly) take it for granted.

There's possibly something in that. Has anyone born after the early 80s really had any "good times" in the terms described here? I can't think of many, the world seems to have lurched from crisis to crisis since the turn of the millennium. And, sadly, I fear there's no end to that in the near future, either.

It's rather funny that some people think that military spending is the most fundamentally vital aspect of government spending viz. the maintenence of a stable society where everything else can happen. It's about as obviously untrue as the Earth being flat.

For what my words are worth, should the worst happen, it won't have been for your lack of trying.

It's very difficult to not fall into apathetic cynicism about it all, yes. But it's also necessary. Do what we can, until we cannot.

Actually doing something about already diminishing resources other than preparing to war over them might also be a good idea.