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Lionator last won the day on 25 May

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About Lionator

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  1. A couple of early indicators that the rate of infection may be slowing. Only 4044 positive cases today, with a lower positive % although that's not the most accurate indicator. This thread also indicates that things may be slowing down a bit too
  2. There were so many good local candidates for the Leicester East Labour seat yet the Corbynista's jettisoned one of their own in based her affiliation with Leicester (from 40+ years ago), so frustrating for the local branches.
  3. Dare I say it, we look a much more mature side than last season.
  4. The major issue for me regarding student loans is the amount of interest gained on them. In terms of actual fees I'm in around £40k of debt, however that's expanded up to £55k in interest alone. At the moment and given I work within STEM, it's unlikely that I'm going to be paying it back in large amounts anytime soon. I agree with everything you said. I'm lucky that I knew what I wanted to do however I think we should start encouraging uni entry a few years later, at 21/22 you have a much better understanding of your direction than at 18.
  5. He was out for food with his family, maybe he didn't want to be disturbed. Nothing wrong with that imo, there's a time and place.
  6. 'Learning to live with the virus' is not carrying on as normal. It's taking the neccesary precautions. There's 25 in ICU in the hospital in Manchester where my sister in laws works. If exponential growth takes place, that'll be 50 next week, then it'll be 100 the week after, then 200, 400 etc. Our hospitals can't cope with that. 30-40% of them will die (and that's down from the 50-60% in the first wave (thanks dexamethasone)). That's hundreds of deaths in the next few weeks in just one part of the country. So we need further restriction if the current ones dont work. If there was no hope of a vaccine then maybe we should rehash this debate but for now it's not an issue for me.
  7. Polls are pretty firmly in Biden's favour or should I say against Trump, including in the key states. And I know what happened last time but 4 more years of Trump are enough to scare any sane non redneck into voting.
  8. A classic 2020 response. I don't like the evidence put in front of me so I'm going to put my fingers in my ears and pretend it doesn't exist.
  9. Here's Ferguson's model so that people can make their own mind up about it https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-03-16-COVID19-Report-9.pdf It seems to predict a peak in April followed by a second peak beginning in September followed up by recurring peaks/lockdowns. In an unmitigated pandemic, 500k would die. So we brought in social distancing to avoid that. Looks like it was pretty accurate to me.
  10. The first two minutes were actually good, then he started going off on one about BLM, completely irrelevant. And then telling people to ignore restrictions is completely reckless considering his stature and the amount of older people who like him.
  11. The problem with the CEBM is that it’s evidence based, which 99.9% of the time is great as it’s based on stuff which has already happened. However this is the 0.1% occasion where we don’t know what will happen as it’s a new disease in a season which we haven’t seen before.
  12. This data doesn't take homes into account as it's pretty much impossible to account for. However it is interesting how educational and workplace settings are high, and care homes are still high. Any sort of measures which exclude schools are not going to get a grip on an outbreak.
  13. I’m intrigued why we aren’t trying the stuff that we know works before going into a full blown lockdown. The 2 metre rule for example, with or without a mask reduces circulation of this virus. Why hasn’t it been reintroduced? We know it barely transmits outside, so why are we banning outdoor meetings? People would be less tempted to break rules and meet indoors then. Nothing makes sense, the government blew it over the summer when they should’ve been making plans for an increase of infections and now they’re crapping the bed. Instead all we got was an exams fiasco and ‘normal by Christmas’. Such infuriating incompetence.
  14. I saw that this week, it would make sense I guess. I also wonder if SARS 1 would've been similar to this in terms of IFR if it had gotten out of control.
  15. Correct. Covid will always exist because the vaccine won't be 100% successful (no vaccine is) and a portion of the population wont take the vaccine but if 70-80% do then it'll be epidemic over in the UK. There's the Oxford/Astra vaccine which now has a built a bit of a tinfoil hat following given the pause in progression, though this is our best bet for mass vaccination. Then we have the Moderna vaccine which the UK hasn't got a deal for but looks promising. However all good bets are on the Pfizer/BioNtech vaccine from US/Germany. We've got a 30M dose deal and they're predicted to have enough data to seek approval at the end of October. I think what we'll see is that healthcare workers and the most vulnerable will be vaccinated with the BioNtech vaccine around Christmas before the Oxford vaccine or perhaps another will be available for the general population from around March/April next year. So we just have to get through for a few more months. If there was no hope of a vaccine then I don't think we'd be considering locking down again.
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