Oasisedup

Betfair Sportsbook have us 1/33 to get promoted? Which is absolutely astounding when you look at the opinions on here.

Generous? If you wanted to bet on us to go up with that firm, the best odds you can find is 1/20. An implied probability of 95%. 7/1 for us to not go up automatically is an implied probability of 12.5%. 7/1 is not really generous at all. Fans seem to be significantly underestimating our prospects, which is perhaps not surprising given collapses of recent years.

We haven't pissed anything away. We've had a bad run of form, losing a couple of games we played well enough to win, and we're still two points clear with a game in hand. It's an important game today, they all are now, but the fatalism on here is tedious.

So absolutely nothing about FFP constraints? Understood.

Why? What do you think a new owner can do about FFP constraints?

The result is all that matters at this stage of the season. Unpleasant viewing at times but we held on. Ndidi coming back. Life is good again.

Yes, bookies typically change odds when probabilities change. That is literally the point. Currently, according to them, the implied probability of us winning the league is 66.67%. And that's the best odds you can find. The majority have us around 70% or higher. The implied probability of us getting promoted is over 90%.

Agreed and we should be more than capable of winning 7 of the remaining games.

Yeah the bookies with no emotional investment whatsoever are the deluded ones. Thankfully us fans are able to assess the probability of us bottling it with cool heads and clear-eyed objectivity.

Yeah I wasn't being entirely serious. I'd be amazed if 6 wins wasn't enough for promotion. Bookies have us 1/2 for the title FWIW.

Surely you'd be a little more relaxed after the 10th

Nothing will calm some. Head losses all round.

We're still going up, most likely as Champions. Relax and enjoy the ride.

You're beyond parody

All perfectly valid points however you seem to be forgetting that many other people in football agree with him, including journalists?

Ipswich scored a third. Oh my God this is a horrendous disaster.

This forum is quite beyond parody at times

And yet they still made 5 changes for their 4th round match... Even if they do give it a real go, our priority will clearly be on the league (and rightly so). This match won't be a test of our first Xi in any meaningful sense.

Neither side will be anywhere near full strength, especially midweek. It won't be a good test of anything.

Ric and Jack meltdown incoming...?

It might be surprising, but it isn't unrealistic because it has literally happened. They have sustained it over a long enough period now to be taken seriously and the last few games have convinced me they aren't going anywhere. I would be pretty concerned if I was a fan of Leeds or Saints.

"Relatively content" at being 10 and 12 pts off the automatics after 21 games. Relative to which teams? Rotherham? Stoke? And you'd be content because you have "complete faith" that a team that has shown very few signs of wobbling (and has in fact achieved the second highest points total after this many games) will wobble and can be caught? Not for me, Clive.

Have to say all the hot take merchants saying "we got relegated because we weren't very good" "/ we should sue ourselves" / "we only have ourselves to blame" are really starting to irritate. These arguments miss the point entirely.

I agree it will be interesting to see how it all plays out and causation is not as clear cut as in the West Ham case. The PL will presumably say they have enforced the rules and found EFC guilty of breaching them.

Why would the Premier League need to refute our claim? It's for Everton to defend and it will be heard by an independent panel. The point is the claim will be heard / entertained. The grounds for a potential claim are plain to see.