Steve_Guppy_Left_Foot Posted 17 April 2015 Posted 17 April 2015 It's about extrapolation of value. I worked as an odds compiler for a while. There are many, many different ways people make money gambling. Some punters only back odds on shots and have a ROI of 1%, sometimes less, but such is the size of the bets they make they can make a healthy living. I knew a guy who would, conversely, rarely make a bet on anything that was less than a double figure price, his ROI was well over 15%, he was a very talented lad. There's no one way to make money gambling, if there was we'd all do it.
Gerard Posted 17 April 2015 Posted 17 April 2015 Deary me. What you have just said there tells me you are a complete an utter fantasist. To make money from betting you need to swim against the tide, you go against the grain. You can't do that by going with the consensus, you have to have an opinion opposite the the 'crowd', which may enable to you obtain prices bigger than they should be, and make a profit. You say 87% of the poll gives us a 50/50 chance of staying up, and the betting markets say we have a 53.9% chance of staying up. This has nothing to do with my point. All I have said is I think that is over optimistic. However, seeing as you want an argument: Newsflash for you - the majority get it wrong whether in opinion or betting. And you a self proclaimed professional gambler! For the enlightened or anyone to make money the mainstream has to be wrong. If 87% of people betting think it's a 50% chance we stay up but there are only 2 outcomes (ie, relegation or staying up) you won't make money backing on the staying up side. Otherwise bookies would be out of business. And they are not. Ending this conversation now as you are a complete bullshitter. I don't really care what you think. 87% said they think it was 50/50 or quite good. You seem to be confusing that with people on average think Leicester have an 87% chance of staying up. Bookies don't make their money by being right but by having an overound and facilitating the spread. For example if they price up who is going to win the toss in a cricket match they'll price it up 5/6 the pair. They have no more insight whether it going to be heads or tails than you or I but every bet they take is ev+ (expected value positive) and thus a bad bet by the punter whether they win or lose. Bookies make their money on turnover. turnover*edge=profit Thanks for your pearls of wisdom though.
Gerard Posted 17 April 2015 Posted 17 April 2015 Wronggggg - You don't need to "go against the grain" you just have to bet on the winner. Simple really. You can't pick winners but you can pick value. Value is the key to winning.
Gerard Posted 17 April 2015 Posted 17 April 2015 It's about extrapolation of value. I worked as an odds compiler for a while. There are many, many different ways people make money gambling. Some punters only back odds on shots and have a ROI of 1%, sometimes less, but such is the size of the bets they make they can make a healthy living. I knew a guy who would, conversely, rarely make a bet on anything that was less than a double figure price, his ROI was well over 15%, he was a very talented lad. There's no one way to make money gambling, if there was we'd all do it. I'm a market maker mainly on in running tennis. I make about 0.5% of profit on my turnover on average. In some of the high liquidity matches I can turnover £1,000,000+. That doesn't mean I'm exposed to lose a potential million but I can just keep churning the money over. For example on one point of tennis I can back one player at 1.1 for 10k and lay the same player at 1.09 for 10k. If I get them both matched I have £100 potential winnings on the 1.1 shot and zero if the other person wins.
Steve_Guppy_Left_Foot Posted 17 April 2015 Posted 17 April 2015 Arbitrage is another way to do it. But it only takes Betfair to go down at precisely the wrong moment to wipe out a lot of hard work.
Gerard Posted 17 April 2015 Posted 17 April 2015 Arbitrage is another way to do it. But it only takes Betfair to go down at precisely the wrong moment to wipe out a lot of hard work. Betfair is the sharp end so long term you would be better off not arbing and just having a straight bet on with the bookie as they are far more likely to have the wrong price. If you can stand the variance that is which most arbers can't.
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