midland_red Posted 14 April 2015 Posted 14 April 2015 50/50....we can't rule out Leicester-type slip ups...I for one expect us to lose aganst Chelsea, Southmapton and also one other (probably Burnley) , and that means we are not entirely masters of our own destiny.... for eaxmple if Dull do better than their run-in suggests we could still go down
justfoxes Posted 16 April 2015 Posted 16 April 2015 When we stay up it will be a pleasure collecting my winning bet of 3 bottles of decent bourbon from a friend with little faith of us staying up! I will certainly be sipping a few in celebration when we secure our prom spot !
NotTheMarketLeader Posted 16 April 2015 Posted 16 April 2015 I'm going to put a damper on the optimism here. We are still bottom, and there is the question of this 'easy' run in you are all talking about. Our record against the teams we are about to play in the reverse fixtures this season is a shocking 2 from a possible 21. That's NO WINS 2 DRAWS 5 LOSES. Wake up! We still have a massively difficult job to escape.
Gerard Posted 16 April 2015 Posted 16 April 2015 I'm going to put a damper on the optimism here. We are still bottom, and there is the question of this 'easy' run in you are all talking about. Our record against the teams we are about to play in the reverse fixtures this season is a shocking 2 from a possible 21. That's NO WINS 2 DRAWS 5 LOSES. Wake up! We still have a massively difficult job to escape. I don't hear anyone saying it's a done deal or easy. Our run in is favourable compared to other teams around us but when you're bottom then there are no easy games by definition.
Steve_Guppy_Left_Foot Posted 17 April 2015 Posted 17 April 2015 It's not just those teams we've picked next to nothing up from, we're a different proposition now to what we were when we played any of those teams first time round. Definite cause for optimism.
Benguin Posted 17 April 2015 Posted 17 April 2015 I'm going to put a damper on the optimism here. We are still bottom, and there is the question of this 'easy' run in you are all talking about. Our record against the teams we are about to play in the reverse fixtures this season is a shocking 2 from a possible 21. That's NO WINS 2 DRAWS 5 LOSES. Wake up! We still have a massively difficult job to escape. Yeah I seem to remember the reverse fixture of Man u ending 5-3, losing both games to Villa, West Ham, West Brom. It shows how honest the game of football is with the reverse fixtures panning out identically.
MPH Posted 17 April 2015 Posted 17 April 2015 Its 50-50 for me simply because it's still not down to us... When we are out of the relegation zone... That's when it will be in our hands...
ozleicester Posted 17 April 2015 Posted 17 April 2015 Still most pleasingly for me is that it remains in our hands, and the majority of the games we have offer a chance to collect points. The old "table doesnt lie" will certainly be true come the end of this season, IMO we will finish 17th 0r (science forbid) 18th and i think that will pretty accurately reflect our season and team.
Haydos Posted 17 April 2015 Posted 17 April 2015 I'm going to put a damper on the optimism here. We are still bottom, and there is the question of this 'easy' run in you are all talking about. Our record against the teams we are about to play in the reverse fixtures this season is a shocking 2 from a possible 21. That's NO WINS 2 DRAWS 5 LOSES. Wake up! We still have a massively difficult job to escape. Nobody is saying it's easy. A lot of people are saying it's doable. The reverse fixtures you mention, a lot of them were played away from home and now we're at the business end of the season everyone's in different shape and we're 'in form'.
foxfanazer Posted 17 April 2015 Posted 17 April 2015 Nobody is saying it's easy. A lot of people are saying it's doable. The reverse fixtures you mention, a lot of them were played away from home and now we're at the business end of the season everyone's in different shape and we're 'in form'. Precisely. Some people just can't stand others having a bit of faith
NotTheMarketLeader Posted 17 April 2015 Posted 17 April 2015 Yeah I seem to remember the reverse fixture of Man u ending 5-3, losing both games to Villa, West Ham, West Brom. It shows how honest the game of football is with the reverse fixtures panning out identically.Understood.All I'm saying is we have proven we cannot be trusted to beat the 'lesser' teams, one of the reasons being that on the whole there is very little difference between the bottom ten clubs imo. With the majority on here voting 50/50, I'm saying it has to less than that. I'm putting aside 'positivity', and what I hope and pray will happen, and look at it as the reality of what's gone before. Even taking account of two very good wins we remain bottom, 3 points from safety. Our game in hand is Chelsea, and we've took 2/21 points from our forthcoming opponents in previous meetings this season. Those facts cannot = a 50% chance of staying up. I appreciate that our players cannot afford to be thinking about the things I have highlighted, but I do think most people on here are over doing what our real chances are.
Crinklyfox Posted 17 April 2015 Posted 17 April 2015 We've had a couple of good results, very welcome, and that has raised expectations. However we haven't cut out the basic mistakes that have cost us all season and that could cost us again. As such I remain concerned that we are likely to drop points in vital games in the run in to the end of the season. I wish it weren't so but I feel that we are unlikely to get the number of wins being predicted and will probably end up with around 34 points, which may not be enough. I hope I'm wrong and that we storm the rest of the season.
Gerard Posted 17 April 2015 Posted 17 April 2015 Understood. All I'm saying is we have proven we cannot be trusted to beat the 'lesser' teams, one of the reasons being that on the whole there is very little difference between the bottom ten clubs imo. With the majority on here voting 50/50, I'm saying it has to less than that. I'm putting aside 'positivity', and what I hope and pray will happen, and look at it as the reality of what's gone before. Even taking account of two very good wins we remain bottom, 3 points from safety. Our game in hand is Chelsea, and we've took 2/21 points from our forthcoming opponents in previous meetings this season. Those facts cannot = a 50% chance of staying up. I appreciate that our players cannot afford to be thinking about the things I have highlighted, but I do think most people on here are over doing what our real chances are. You're post is about your perception of the majority opinion and you're wrong, you're making it all up in your head. The betting markets make us a 46.1% chance of getting relegated. During the season we have been perceived to have been between 11.7% and 89.6% chance of being relegated during our highs and lows. The vast majority see our chances between 40-60% of staying up. It's irrelevant that we have took two points from the reverse fixtures, it's just variance. Would you be more confident playing Man Utd away or QPR at home? We won the former reverse fixture and lost the latter.
Renart Posted 17 April 2015 Author Posted 17 April 2015 Tony Gale and Iwan Roberts predict the final games for Sky Sports: We stay up! http://www1.skysports.com/watch/video/sports/football/9809551/who-will-be-relegated-from-the-premier-league
Guest LCFC_World Posted 17 April 2015 Posted 17 April 2015 Tony Gale and Iwan Roberts predict the final games for Sky Sports: We stay up! http://www1.skysports.com/watch/video/sports/football/9809551/who-will-be-relegated-from-the-premier-league Interesting watch. Unexpected end of table..
Renart Posted 17 April 2015 Author Posted 17 April 2015 Interesting watch. Unexpected end of table.. I put a fiver on those three going down earlier on this week. I got odds of 8 to 1; I thought those odds were pretty short for predicting three teams teams to go down and considering where those teams currently are in the table. This has led me to believe that there is something in it, considering their respective run-ins.
NotTheMarketLeader Posted 17 April 2015 Posted 17 April 2015 You're post is about your perception of the majority opinion and you're wrong, you're making it all up in your head. The betting markets make us a 46.1% chance of getting relegated. During the season we have been perceived to have been between 11.7% and 89.6% chance of being relegated during our highs and lows. The vast majority see our chances between 40-60% of staying up. It's irrelevant that we have took two points from the reverse fixtures, it's just variance. Would you be more confident playing Man Utd away or QPR at home? We won the former reverse fixture and lost the latter. It's not my 'perception' of the general opinion, I'm using the % figures from the poll - the actual of opinion of people who voted!So I'm not sure you've grasped my point. You want to be positive about our chances - which I dont have a problem with but my post is about me saying the 48% of people answering the poll on here are being over confident in saying we've got a 50/50 chance. Let alone another 37% who think we've got a better than 50% chance! Almost all think we are as good as home and hosed! Its just my opinion of course. What I do not do is make my mind up about issues based on betting markets, and predictions with that as a source. However since you raise the point, betting markets, even more so betting exchanges, are notoriously skewed by the most recent events, and are probably not a true reflection of our TRUE chances of survival either, as a consequence of our last two results. Markets, like public opinion tend to overreact to both positive and negative events. That imo is what has happened with the poll, people over doing it. There's no need to get uptight over it. I do like a good conversation btw where I can mention the word 'market' many, many, many times.
Izzy Posted 17 April 2015 Posted 17 April 2015 Interesting watch. Unexpected end of table.. I'm trying not to get TOO excited after watching that! Seems the pundits fancy our chances in the main. Thanks for sharing And what the fook does Professor Ewan Roberts look like!
Gerard Posted 17 April 2015 Posted 17 April 2015 It's not my 'perception' of the general opinion, I'm using the % figures from the poll - the actual of opinion of people who voted! So I'm not sure you've grasped my point. You want to be positive about our chances - which I dont have a problem with but my post is about me saying the 48% of people answering the poll on here are being over confident in saying we've got a 50/50 chance. In my opinion of course. What I don't do is make my mind up about issues based on betting markets, and predictions with that as a source. However since you raise the point, betting markets, even more so betting exchanges, are notoriously skewed by the most recent events, and are probably not a true reflection of our TRUE chances of survival either, as a consequence of our last two results. Markets, like public opinion tend to overreact to both positive and negative events. That imo is what has happened with the poll, people over doing it. There's no need to get uptight over it. I do like a good conversation btw where I can mention the word 'market' many, many, many times. I'm not sure I have grasped your point, over 87% of the people who voted in the poll rated our chances between 50/50 and quite good. Considering the betting markets give us a 53.9% chance of staying up then I think the poll results are quite accurate and realistic of our chances of survival. I've made my living for eleven years as a professional gambler on the betting exchanges. Markets are driven by mathematical models and supply and demand. Markets of course take into account recent events, the prices are made from a combination of actual performance and expected performance. The more evidence we see the more accurate the price should be. If you have a better way of assessing what the true price of anything should be then I'm all ears and I'll make you a millionaire within eighteen months.
Dan Posted 17 April 2015 Posted 17 April 2015 I've got this really weird feeling we're going to send Sunderland down in one of the most ridiculous games the league's ever seen.
Harry - LCFC Posted 17 April 2015 Posted 17 April 2015 I've got this really weird feeling we're going to send Sunderland down in one of the most ridiculous games the league's ever seen. Which minute will the walkout take place?
The Doctor Posted 17 April 2015 Posted 17 April 2015 Which minute will the walkout take place? 10th, after they all get bored of one cheer coming from the Leicester end every time Lee Cattermole touches the ball
Guest Col city fan Posted 17 April 2015 Posted 17 April 2015 10th, after they all get bored of one cheer coming from the Leicester end every time Lee Cattermole touches the ball Who is that aimed at Doc?
NotTheMarketLeader Posted 17 April 2015 Posted 17 April 2015 I'm not sure I have grasped your point, over 87% of the people who voted in the poll rated our chances between 50/50 and quite good. Considering the betting markets give us a 53.9% chance of staying up then I think the poll results are quite accurate and realistic of our chances of survival. I've made my living for eleven years as a professional gambler on the betting exchanges. Markets are driven by mathematical models and supply and demand. Markets of course take into account recent events, the prices are made from a combination of actual performance and expected performance. The more evidence we see the more accurate the price should be. If you have a better way of assessing what the true price of anything should be then I'm all ears and I'll make you a millionaire within eighteen months. Deary me. What you have just said there tells me you are a complete an utter fantasist. To make money from betting you need to swim against the tide, you go against the grain. You can't do that by going with the consensus, you have to have an opinion opposite the the 'crowd', which may enable to you obtain prices bigger than they should be, and make a profit. You say 87% of the poll gives us a 50/50 chance of staying up, and the betting markets say we have a 53.9% chance of staying up. This has nothing to do with my point. All I have said is I think that is over optimistic. However, seeing as you want an argument: Newsflash for you - the majority get it wrong whether in opinion or betting. And you a self proclaimed professional gambler! For the enlightened or anyone to make money the mainstream has to be wrong. If 87% of people betting think it's a 50% chance we stay up but there are only 2 outcomes (ie, relegation or staying up) you won't make money backing on the staying up side. Otherwise bookies would be out of business. And they are not. Ending this conversation now as you are a complete bullshitter.
wattolcfc Posted 17 April 2015 Posted 17 April 2015 Wronggggg - You don't need to "go against the grain" you just have to bet on the winner. Simple really.
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