Boundary Changes

[Guest MattP]

Early stages still but the reduction to 600 MP's and significent boundary changes that will follow will be announced soon.

 

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4698828.ece

 

 

The scale of Jeremy Corbyn’s task of returning Labour to power is made clear by analysis of the data to be used to draw the new electoral map of Britain.

Of the 50 Commons seats to be cut Labour loses almost half — 24 — while the Tories suffer only 14 losses in a reorganisation that will pit party colleagues and constituency neighbours into a series of battles for survival, according to research for The Times.

 

The first draft of the new map, based on electoral registers released yesterday by the Office for National Statistics, will be produced by the Boundary Commission in September and finalised two years later.

Lewis Baston, a political analyst, offers a first glimpse of the battles ahead using the data to model how the body will draw up new seats that must have no fewer than 71,031 voters and no more than 78,507. His analysis shows that Labour has been hit hard by changes to electoral registration rules that the party says account for the bulk of a 600,000 reduction in the number of people eligible to vote. The full introduction of individual voter registration to clamp down on electoral fraud by scrapping the system where “heads” of households submit all the names has coincided with sharp drops in university cities and deprived areas.

 

New rules which allow for seats that straddle county boundaries are set to benefit the Tories in a series of marginals. Harlow, Stevenage, Great Yarmouth and Carlisle will become far more blue, for example, helping the Tories to dig in against a Labour offensive.

“Labour already needs a 1997-sized lead to get a majority of just one seat. It looks as if it’s going to be even more difficult on these numbers,” Mr Baston said.

Tensions between the leader and his MPs are rising before a series of bruising selection contests to be triggered in 2018. Frank Field joins a list of prominent critics of Mr Corbyn identified as most likely to have to compete for seats. The list includes Liz Kendall, Chris Leslie and Tristram Hunt. The Labour leader’s own constituency of Islington North, by contrast, looks likely to escape unscathed.

 

Tories are also braced for some “blue-on-blue” clashes. Three Essex neighbours, Priti Patel, Bernard Jenkin and John Whittingdale, all of whom happen to be prominent members of the Brexit campaign, may be left fighting for two seats.

 

Newly elected Tory MPs carried to the Commons in the party’s sweep of the southwest face a second battle to remain in parliament as Devon and Cornwall are forced to share at least one of the larger constituencies.

England will lose 32 seats in total, Wales will lose 11 seats and Scotland 6. The West Midlands will lose one seat more than first thought, dropping from 59 to 53, as will the northeast, which will drop from 29 seats to 25.

Katie Ghose, chief executive of Electoral Reform, said: “The constituencies which saw the biggest drop are largely student seats and deprived areas — groups which are already under-represented. The areas with the biggest rise are largely wealthier areas. This patchy picture means electoral registration, and the number of parliamentary seats representing each area, is getting more unequal by the year.”

 

 

Could leave some interesting battles, assuming Leicester goes from 3 to 2 seats we'll have a three way tussle with Ashworth, Kendall and Vaz for two of them, I don't fancy the chances of the female coming out on top there, she'll be quite welcome in Charnwood anytime though.

[theessexfox]

Think I'm right in understanding that the current boundaries favour Labour, so only seems right that they're being changed. Also probably a better way of cutting the cost of politics than reducing state funding too heavily. 

[Guest MattP]

Although I don't like the way the article is written - "Labour faces the loss of 24 seats after redrawing of electoral map"

 

That's not quite true is it? The seats that are currently occupied by Labour MP's will no longer exist.Labour, along with any other party has just as much chance of winning enough seats to form a government. All they have to do is come up with policies that voters will vote for.

 

[Trav Le Bleu]

Early stages still but the reduction to 600 MP's and significent boundary changes that will follow will be announced soon.

 

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4698828.ece

 

 

 

Could leave some interesting battles, assuming Leicester goes from 3 to 2 seats we'll have a three way tussle with Ashworth, Kendall and Vaz for two of them, I don't fancy the chances of the female coming out on top there, she'll be quite welcome in Charnwood anytime though.

 

I always knew you were a closet red!

[Guest MattP]

I always knew you were a closet red!

 

If anyone was ever going to turn me back towards that side she'd be the person to do it.

[Alf Bentley]

Early stages still but the reduction to 600 MP's and significent boundary changes that will follow will be announced soon.

 

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4698828.ece

 

 

 

Could leave some interesting battles, assuming Leicester goes from 3 to 2 seats we'll have a three way tussle with Ashworth, Kendall and Vaz for two of them, I don't fancy the chances of the female coming out on top there, she'll be quite welcome in Charnwood anytime though.

 

 

That's surprising if Leicester is one of the places to lose a seat (unless they transfer chunks of the 3 existing seats to surrounding seats like Harborough, Blaby or Charnwood).

 

In the last census, Leicester had one of the fastest-growing populations in the country.

 

Maybe they could transfer parts of Charnwood constituency into Leicester West - with the added bonus of some friendly "cross-party political work" between the Leicester West MP and select Charnwood constituents?

[Webbo]

I'm in Charnwood, can I have a go too?

[Alf Bentley]

I'm in Charnwood, can I have a go too?

 

 

Gives a whole new meaning to the concept of "Blue Labour" (though maybe precautionary policies could avoid the need for labour?).

[Guest MattP]

Really wouldn't surprise me to see Glenfield, Anstey and Kirby shoved into Leicester West, could turn that from strongish Labour to a near swing seat.

And yes to that Bonus.

[Alf Bentley]

Really wouldn't surprise me to see Glenfield, Anstey and Kirby shoved into Leicester West, could turn that from strongish Labour to a near swing seat.

And yes to that Bonus.

 

 

There's the potential for a major scandal here: crucial swing seat, prominent Labour MP revealed to be conducting a torrid affair with challenging Tory/UKIP candidate.....

 

Shoving Oadby and Wigston into Leicester South would be reasonably logical, too, if they're changing local boundaries. If they're cutting Leicester to 2 seats, though, they'd presumably have to hand some Leicester wards over to county seats or the 2 remaining city seats would be too big.

[Webbo]

My bit of Charnwood borders Leicester East. I t would probably make sense to put Thurmaston, Syston and Birstall into that and  some of the villages further out into the Rutland and Melton and Loughborough constituencies.

[Alf Bentley]

My bit of Charnwood borders Leicester East. I t would probably make sense to put Thurmaston, Syston and Birstall into that and  some of the villages further out into the Rutland and Melton and Loughborough constituencies.

 

 

Are you willing yourself to be placed in Keith Vaz's constituency there, Webbo?

[Webbo]

Are you willing yourself to be placed in Keith Vaz's constituency there, Webbo?

I used to live there. Obviously I prefer the tories but I've never hated Vaz personally.

[Guest MattP]

Vaz voted for the Syrian airstrikes, he could be on the momentum deselect list as much as Kendall is.

[ramboacdc]

did they try and force through boundary changes during the coalition and it get defeated? makes sense for them put push it through now they have a majority...i dont think its fair but what can you do?

[Webbo]

did they try and force through boundary changes during the coalition and it get defeated? makes sense for them put push it through now they have a majority...i dont think its fair but what can you do?

Why isn't it fair?