The 'real' Premier League table decided by xG

[Finnegan]

14 minutes ago, Stadt said:

Very few players consistently outscore their xG. I can't find the graph now but finishing ability between players is surprisingly similar. This is probably the best article I can find https://statsbomb.com/articles/soccer/quantifying-finishing-skill/

 

I know I've brought this up a few times recently but if you go and look at np:xG-aG/90 over the course of a few seasons on something like fbref (they get their xG stats from Opta I believe), you'll get a fairly predictable story.

 

Players you think of as bad finishers like DCL and Neal Maupay are down there at something like -0.3 below their xG per 90 while the players you expect to be good finishers like Kane, Haaland, Foden, etc are all consistently outperforming it. 

 

The majority of players sit between about 0.05 and -0.05 mind, so I'd say that tracks to some extent. 

 

Edit: just by the by, this actually paints a fairly positive picture for anyone concerned about Graham Potter's teams not scoring a lot (not that he'll come here now we're down) but when you consider that probably means Maupay was leaving something like 10 to 15 league goals out there a season that he should have been bagging and you look at Daka and Vardy consistently hitting just above their xG, you can see how what seems like a statistical small gap to begin with can have quite a large impact over the course of a season. 

 

Edited 1 June 2023 by Finnegan

[KingsX]

15 hours ago, FoxTimmy2 said:

 

Isn't Hennessey the Welsh #1 these days?  And if you view Wales as, say, a Championship-level squad, Ward is a Championship-level backup keeper.  Which is the best job Ward could get if we released him tomorrow.

[Finnegan]

4 minutes ago, KingsX said:

Isn't Hennessey the Welsh #1 these days?  And if you view Wales as, say, a Championship-level squad, Ward is a Championship-level backup keeper.  Which is the best job Ward could get if we released him tomorrow.

 

They've both had stints at first choice but largely because Hennessey wasn't getting picked for his club at the time. 

 

Hennessey is objectively better but neither are fantastic. 

[Death by Football]

34 minutes ago, Finnegan said:

 

 

Personally I love it, I don't care what I can and can't "do" with data I just find it fascinating to have. It's of interest to me in the same way, idk, stamp collecting or train spotting are to other people. It's just a hobby. I personally don't understand why people get excited about TIFO or which European ultras did some crazy shit this week, it's just everyone takes something slightly different from the sport and it's cool that it can keep us all entertained in different ways. 

 

Really, though? Bombarded? You don't think that's slight hyperbole? I know xG is very vogue at the moment but I find it kinda easy to avoid nearly all of this sort of stuff. Idk, maybe I'm just not very active on social media outside this forum but I don't have a problem avoiding things I'm not interested in. I don't, for example, bother reading the Ultras thread on foxestalk all that much and I wouldn't make a habit of go in there and rolling my eyes at them all regularly. I think if you choose to come in to a thread that's clearly about xG and then go on to whinge about it when you made the decision to read this knowing full well what it is then, eh. That's on you, no? 

Forgive my hyperbole. I should have said I can't watch a match on telly without being shown stats that have no meaningful use to me.

In fairness if there was a thread titled "The real premier league title decided by Garth Crooks" I'd have gone in there for a moan too.  Maybe I'm just a miserable old git.

[Finnegan]

6 minutes ago, Death by Football said:

fairness if there was a thread titled "The real premier league title decided by Garth Crooks" I'd have gone in there for a moan too

 

We all would. Quite rightfully. 

[Chrysalis]

I suggest people dont click the link, hugely tracker and ad infested and no xG league table in sight on it.

[Mike1983]

1 hour ago, KingsX said:

Isn't Hennessey the Welsh #1 these days?  And if you view Wales as, say, a Championship-level squad, Ward is a Championship-level backup keeper.  Which is the best job Ward could get if we released him tomorrow.

That’s quite generous for a goalie who most of the time looks like an outfielder stuck in goal.

[KingsX]

36 minutes ago, Mike1983 said:

That’s quite generous for a goalie who most of the time looks like an outfielder stuck in goal.

 

And a baseball outfielder, at that.