Thracian Posted 31 January 2008 Author Posted 31 January 2008 Thats not true at all. I don't doubt there's been exceptions - George Graham might make a hero's return yet - but it's what I'd be aiming for. Even in the present table, where only West Brom might be deemed a "good" side, three of the top six - West Brom (62 goals from 29 games), Stoke (46 from 29) and Charlton (42 from 29) would all seem to be heading for much better than a goal a game and we'd be needing to beat that.
Thracian Posted 31 January 2008 Author Posted 31 January 2008 Yeah that bit about having to score 75-80 goals is utter bollocks, especially when we have the joint best defensive record in the league. But would we still have that defensive record if we commit the numbers to attack that we need to? Dourists seem to suggest that we can someone grind out promotion on the back of a miserly defence and, while it wouldn't appeal to me much, I accept that a big proportion of fans would be happy with that. Yet where's the evidence of it happening? We've had a solid enough defence for several seasons but have been in the bottom half of the table virtually throughout. I'll be interested to see, if we ever do go up, how many goals we do score. And will be surprised if it's less than 75. We might have managed it with fewer this season with the teams being so tightly grouped and very little quality but we're still way short of what's necessary even then.
Manwell Pablo Posted 31 January 2008 Posted 31 January 2008 I don't doubt there's been exceptions - George Graham might make a hero's return yet - but it's what I'd be aiming for.Even in the present table, where only West Brom might be deemed a "good" side, three of the top six - West Brom (62 goals from 29 games), Stoke (46 from 29) and Charlton (42 from 29) would all seem to be heading for much better than a goal a game and we'd be needing to beat that. Yes but a goal game is 46 goals. You speak of 80 goals(approaching two goals a game), which with a good defensive record you don't need, to get into the play offs I'd claim you could actually do it with less than 57 odd. You said we need to score 75-80 goals to be succesfull, which is complete poppeycock! (What a word that is)
Fez of Mahrez Posted 31 January 2008 Posted 31 January 2008 But would we still have that defensive record if we commit the numbers to attack that we need to. Dourists seem to suggest that we can someone grind out promotion on the back of a miserly defence and, while it wouldn't appeal to me much, I accept that a big proportion of fans would be happy with that.Yet where's the evidence of it happening? We've had a solid enough defence for several seasons but have been in the bottom half of the table throughout. I'll be interested to see, if we ever do go up, how many goals we do score. And will be surprised if it's less than 75. We might have managed it with fewer this season with the teams being so tightly grouped and very little quality but we're still way short of what's necessary even then. Only three of the top six scored more than 70 goals last season, let alone 75. To say we "have to" score 75-80 to get promoted is plain wrong. Derby scored 62 last season and Wolves scored 59. In 2005/06 again three teams scored less than 75 goals to get into the top six. In 2004/05, three teams scored less than 75 goals to get into the top six. In 2003/04, four teams scored less than 75 goals to get into the top six. And the year before that, WE scored less than 75 goals and were automatically promoted!! You can speculate all you like how we might play if we committed more numbers to attack but the above demonstrates you can do it without scoring 75-80 goals. And I know you like statistics.
Manwell Pablo Posted 31 January 2008 Posted 31 January 2008 In fact Thracian if you go back and look at past division tables theres normally one team with both an outstanding defense and an outstanding goal scoreing record that wins the league. After that it's all about the results, the team with over 80 goals in the past two seasons hasn't gone up, whilst a team with GF in the low 60's have. How many goals we score really doesn not have a bearing on if we go up or not, we could score 100 and go down because we've lost every game 5-4, it's how many games you win.
Thracian Posted 31 January 2008 Author Posted 31 January 2008 Yes but a goal game is 46 goals. You speak of 80 goals(approaching two goals a game), which with a good defensive record you don't need, to get into the play offs I'd claim you could actually do it with less than 57 odd. You said we need to score 75-80 goals to be succesfull, which is complete poppeycock! (What a word that is) It's an excellent word with or without the "e" but what you might, and it's a big might, do it with and what I'd be aiming for are different things. Last year Derby and Birmingham scored 61 goals each I think but the year before Reading and Sheffield United scored 95 goals and 73 goals respecitively, the average being 72.5. I think aiming for 75 goals is realistic based on that.
Manwell Pablo Posted 31 January 2008 Posted 31 January 2008 It's an excellent word with or without the "e" but what you might, and it's a big might, do it with and what I'd be aiming for are different things. Last year Derby and Birmingham scored 61 goals each I think but the year before Reading and Sheffield United scored 95 goals and 73 goals respecitively, the average being 72.5. I think aiming for 75 goals is realistic based on that. Right, so we've established that you don't need 75-80 goals a season to succed as you previously stated , it's just what you're aiming for. Although quite how you expect to aim for something such as that when you have no control over the team I don't know.
Fez of Mahrez Posted 31 January 2008 Posted 31 January 2008 It's an excellent word with or without the "e" but what you might, and it's a big might, do it with and what I'd be aiming for are different things.Last year Derby and Birmingham scored 61 goals each I think but the year before Reading and Sheffield United scored 95 goals and 73 goals respecitively, the average being 72.5. I think aiming for 75 goals is realistic based on that. And the ONLY way we will be successful is by scoring 75/80-odd goals a season.
andyh1884 Posted 31 January 2008 Posted 31 January 2008 It's an excellent word with or without the "e" but what you might, and it's a big might, do it with and what I'd be aiming for are different things. Last year Derby and Birmingham scored 61 goals each I think but the year before Reading and Sheffield United scored 95 goals and 73 goals respecitively, the average being 72.5. I think aiming for 75 goals is realistic based on that. I would agree, promotion chasing sides should be aiming for 60+ goals a season because in order to win enough games to reach the play-offs/automatic promotion, you're gonna need more than a goal a game. 60 goals is 1.3 a game, which isn't an unreasonable haul (well, for us at the moment it might be) We scored 73 league goals when we got promoted in 02/03
Thracian Posted 31 January 2008 Author Posted 31 January 2008 Right, so we've established that you don't need 75-80 goals a season to succed as you previously stated , it's just what you're aiming for. Although quite how you expect to aim for something such as that when you have no control over the team I don't know. Seems pretty close to 75/80 to me but we'll see how it pans out. Right now we're managing a goal a game and I doubt even you will be making a case for that being enough. Or will you?
Manwell Pablo Posted 31 January 2008 Posted 31 January 2008 How is it splitting hairs, he's claimed you need 75 goals a season to go up, where as in actual fact 60+ can get you automatic.
andyh1884 Posted 31 January 2008 Posted 31 January 2008 How is it splitting hairs, he's claimed you need 75 goals a season to go up, where as in actual fact 60+ can get you automatic. But on average, teams that go up get over 70 goals. That's why it's an average, some get more, some get less. 30 goals COULD get you promotion. My point was that Fez was drawing attention to Thracians 2 posts about the only way being getting 75/80 goals and what he'd be aiming for and while I appreciate there are subtle differences in the two comments, it's pretty pedantic to use them as him contradicting himself which is what I assumed Fez was doing
James. Posted 31 January 2008 Posted 31 January 2008 But on average, teams that go up get over 70 goals. That's why it's an average, some get more, some get less. 30 goals COULD get you promotion.My point was that Fez was drawing attention to Thracians 2 posts about the only way being getting 75/80 goals and what he'd be aiming for and while I appreciate there are subtle differences in the two comments, it's pretty pedantic to use them as him contradicting himself which is what I assumed Fez was doing It's also pretty pedantic picking up on it in the way you have. I'm saying this tongue in cheek, as the mere fact I have wrote the above comment is also a touch pedantic.
Manwell Pablo Posted 31 January 2008 Posted 31 January 2008 But on average, teams that go up get over 70 goals. That's why it's an average, some get more, some get less. 30 goals COULD get you promotion.My point was that Fez was drawing attention to Thracians 2 posts about the only way being getting 75/80 goals and what he'd be aiming for and while I appreciate there are subtle differences in the two comments, it's pretty pedantic to use them as him contradicting himself which is what I assumed Fez was doing Teams frequently go up having scored in the low sixties. so to say we need at least 75 goals to go up is wrong, we didn't even score 75 goals the last time we went up, Derby and Birmingham both scored fewer than 65 last season. It's just Thracian being focused on goal scoring as usual. He said the only way this club is going to be succesful is to score between 75-80 goals, no bells, no whilstes, not even a long word or a stupid analogy in sight, it was a statement of fact. Fez was showing that his orginal statement was false not trying to show a contradiction.
Fez of Mahrez Posted 31 January 2008 Posted 31 January 2008 But on average, teams that go up get over 70 goals. That's why it's an average, some get more, some get less. 30 goals COULD get you promotion.My point was that Fez was drawing attention to Thracians 2 posts about the only way being getting 75/80 goals and what he'd be aiming for and while I appreciate there are subtle differences in the two comments, it's pretty pedantic to use them as him contradicting himself which is what I assumed Fez was doing It's not pedantic at all. It's like saying "we will beat Blackpool" and then backtracking to "we could beat Blackpool". Anyway my working week finishes in half an hour and I'm off to Sheffield for a long weekend of heavy drinking so I win either way.
The Reverend Posted 31 January 2008 Posted 31 January 2008 The fact is, you dont NEED 75-80 goals to go up. I think what you mean Thracian, is that that is a realistic target that would give us a chance in the Premiership instead of doing a Derby. In which case i fully agree. I would rather us stay down if we scored 50 goals to get in the play offs for example (not going to happen anyway). We are a long way from that Thracian. But we have time. We are building a good team here. Have some patience.
Lillehamring Posted 31 January 2008 Posted 31 January 2008 Why do you have to make every topic into the Thracian show, with your samish boring ramblings about the same old shit. It' s boring and makes this forum somewhat tiresome. I appreciate you're entitled to your opinion and thats what makes a good forum, but the last three or four threads I have looked at, it is you going on about 70 goals, Shush! and the need for pace.Anyway, onto more pressing matters I think we will win at Blackpool confidence should be high and I can see us winning 2-1 or something like that. I'll be there gonna try and get there early and get on the front row too. to be fair, most times thracian makes a point, someone will try to belittle or find fault with it, sometimes with validity and success, sometimes beacuase they see others doing and think it will help them be accepted into FT (probably). thracian, for his sins, will always defend himself when challenged, and thus the threads start to spin out of control. if people want to hear less of thracian, may i suggest that they just let him post with looking for a flaw in everything he says. especially if you only have a few dozen posts to your credit. there are a lot of tedious posters on this forum, that really deserve putting in their place - for those that simply want to find fault with other people why don't you track these dullards down
Manwell Pablo Posted 31 January 2008 Posted 31 January 2008 The fact is, you dont NEED 75-80 goals to go up. I think what you mean Thracian, is that that is a realistic target that would give us a chance in the Premiership instead of doing a Derby. In which case i fully agree. I would rather us stay down if we scored 50 goals to get in the play offs for example (not going to happen anyway). We are a long way from that Thracian. But we have time. We are building a good team here. Have some patience. I'd disagree with that as well because Birmingham scored 64 last season and stand a good chance of staying up.
andyh1884 Posted 31 January 2008 Posted 31 January 2008 Teams frequently go up having scored in the low sixties. so to say we need at least 75 goals to go up is wrong, we didn't even score 75 goals the last time we went up, Derby and Birmingham both scored fewer than 65 last season. It's just Thracian being focused on goal scoring as usual.He said the only way this club is going to be succesful is to score between 75-80 goals, no bells, no whilstes, not even a long word or a stupid analogy in sight, it was a statement of fact. Fez was showing that his orginal statement was false not trying to show a contradiction. Chances are though that if you score 75 you'll be there or there abouts at the end of the season, although I do agree we don't need to score 75-80 goals to be successful. Obviously I misread the intention of Fez's post, but at least we all got to see a nice pretty picture of animal testing out of it. Every cloud and that...
Thracian Posted 31 January 2008 Author Posted 31 January 2008 I'd disagree with that as well because Birmingham scored 64 last season and stand a good chance of staying up. They also stand a damn good chance of going down. Same points as bottom three team Wigan and with a manager who's probably finished his "honeymoon" period as the transfer window closes. It's almost written, Wigan staying up and waving goodbye as Paul Jewell goes down. I just hope you haven't backed your confidence in Birmingham at the bookies.
The Reverend Posted 31 January 2008 Posted 31 January 2008 They also stand a damn good chance of going down.Same points as bottom three team Wigan and with a manager who's probably finished his "honeymoon" period as the transfer window closes. It's almost written, Wigan staying up and waving goodbye as Paul Jewell goes down. I just hope you haven't backed your confidence in Birmingham at the bookies. So was that actually your point then? That we need that number to have a realistic chance of surviving i the prem? As for Brum, well to be fair theyve spent some dollar, and that seems to be the aim for teams like Brum,West Brom if they go up, and hopefully us if we do in the next few seasons, because as everyone knows, the gulf is large.
Manwell Pablo Posted 31 January 2008 Posted 31 January 2008 They also stand a damn good chance of going down.Same points as bottom three team Wigan and with a manager who's probably finished his "honeymoon" period as the transfer window closes. It's almost written, Wigan staying up and waving goodbye as Paul Jewell goes down. I just hope you haven't backed your confidence in Birmingham at the bookies. They also stand a damn good chance of going down.Same points as bottom three team Wigan and with a manager who's probably finished his "honeymoon" period as the transfer window closes. It's almost written, Wigan staying up and waving goodbye as Paul Jewell goes down. I just hope you haven't backed your confidence in Birmingham at the bookies. Maybe so but they're having a go and not doing much worse than brilliant 100 goals scoring (all hail) Reading, or Sunderland, or Wigan etc. My arguement isn't that not scoring 75-80 goals is the best way to go up and stay up, I'd prefere it that way as I'm sure most fans would however, it is not the only way. This is what I say about your views on football, black is very much black and white is very much white and it just does not work like that!
marbelladave Posted 31 January 2008 Posted 31 January 2008 Without getting into the numbers game, I think Thracian is right. To even compete for promotion we HAVE to be more attacking, a goal a game simply will not cut it. We can do this without taking unacceptable risks, it needs to be a balanced approach. At present we have a strong back 4 and 2 defensively competent central midfielders, that is fine. What is not fine is that our attacking midfielders, our wide men, are also required to track back, which they do pretty well, but this leaves our front men isolated and without support. This is particularly obvious when Howard and Hayles play together as neither are much good at dropping off and linking play. Push our wide men forward onto their fullbacks and play Hume or DJ in the hole. When our defenders win possession they have players in positions that they can hit with short passes into feet, much better than just aiming everything at Howard's head! Not all out attack, just a bit more positive, it can be done.
STUHILL Posted 31 January 2008 Posted 31 January 2008 I will be really disapointed if we don't WIN this game!! There are no real excuses now that we have a better manager and some new players in. We should really be able to beat Blackpool, and I hope we do it with flair like the Cov game! I predict 4-1 win
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