Kyle_Le_Don Posted 7 February 2013 Share Posted 7 February 2013 Pleaseee don't get complacent, a game at a time should be the mentality else we'll just be setting ourselves up for one big disaster. Wont get too excited till its mathematically sealed. Just enjoy the mother ****ing ride Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dynamark Posted 7 February 2013 Share Posted 7 February 2013 Guys come on - enjoy a game at a time.Its a virtue in life- patience plus a modicum of concentration.keep the discipline on pitch no silly fouls/bookings and we should be OK. Team is good enough we all know that just got to do a professional job to the finish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lionator Posted 7 February 2013 Share Posted 7 February 2013 Looking at our next 3 games. Very winnable. The scenario is then 8 wins from 14 which looks a whole lot easier. WE CAN DO THIS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmt Posted 7 February 2013 Share Posted 7 February 2013 Is that thing where you input what you think the results for the rest of the season will be and it shows you the table available at the moment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_Fatboyslow_ Posted 8 February 2013 Share Posted 8 February 2013 huh? Errr yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_Fatboyslow_ Posted 8 February 2013 Share Posted 8 February 2013 Using the info on this site it looks like 80 points will be the least we need to finish better than 3rd, so we need 9 wins from 17, if we gain 20 from the next 10 then 7 or more from 7 matches is not a big ask. With much better discipline being shown by the players surspensions are less of a concern. Injuries could be, so let's hope we don't have any major issues with them. It is quite clear that we have a much better squad this season, and as is usally the case, Pearson in getting the most from the squad. We have realisict chances this year not hopeful ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanTheMan Posted 8 February 2013 Share Posted 8 February 2013 Working out the stats for finishing 2nd by looking at the average points for 3rd place and then saying we'd just need more than that doesn't make sense... The 10-season average for 2nd place finishes is 87, and as someone in this thread said, the average for 3rd in the last 5 seasons is 80. So it's no use just saying "More than 80pts is the target to finish better than 3rd" because if we finished on 81 for example, its very likely based on the fact 87 is the average for 2nd that a team would finish above us and we'd finish in 3rd. The OP that posted the stats for 2nd has it right, if we want to have a decent chance of finishing in 2nd, 87pts is our target not 80pts. See my thread for a nifty spreadsheet with all sorts of stats: http://www.foxestalk...2012-13-season/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leicester Piggott Posted 8 February 2013 Share Posted 8 February 2013 Anyone know where I can get ground covered stars e.g. How many km/miles a player runs a game please. Is the assumption here that a player who has covered more ground has played better or contributed more? Surely sometimes the right thing to do is stand still? And indeed if positioning is spot on, less distance needs to be covered. Anyway, I'm not having a pop, just wondering about your view on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_Fatboyslow_ Posted 8 February 2013 Share Posted 8 February 2013 Working out the stats for finishing 2nd by looking at the average points for 3rd place and then saying we'd just need more than that doesn't make sense... The 10-season average for 2nd place finishes is 87, and as someone in this thread said, the average for 3rd in the last 5 seasons is 80. So it's no use just saying "More than 80pts is the target to finish better than 3rd" because if we finished on 81 for example, its very likely based on the fact 87 is the average for 2nd that a team would finish above us and we'd finish in 3rd. The OP that posted the stats for 2nd has it right, if we want to have a decent chance of finishing in 2nd, 87pts is our target not 80pts. See my thread for a nifty spreadsheet with all sorts of stats: http://www.foxestalk...2012-13-season/ I beg to differ, by finishing better than 3rd you finish 2nd, the amount you beat them by is secondary, goal difference will do. Secondly should we net 20 points from the next ten matches ( take the ave over the last 10 if you want or last 5 :-) ) then our goal differance will be intact and with 7 to play which include our some of our expected rivals avoiding defeat may well be the route up for us. More importantly we will in control of our own destiny. If this is how things work out then we may only need 7 points, maybe more but 10 or more should be achievable. What would be more interesting and will occur when we are down to the last ten matches is who is in contention for what, and who is playing who? This I feel is a clear assessment of what our targets should be and what is obtainable. You can play alsorts of games with stats and even gain an edge, but you can not predict the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phillo Posted 8 February 2013 Share Posted 8 February 2013 I predicted 3rd at the beginning of the season now i hope my prediction doesnt come true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_Fatboyslow_ Posted 8 February 2013 Share Posted 8 February 2013 I predicted 3rd at the beginning of the season now i hope my prediction doesnt come true you are a better man than me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanTheMan Posted 8 February 2013 Share Posted 8 February 2013 I beg to differ, by finishing better than 3rd you finish 2nd, the amount you beat them by is secondary, goal difference will do. Secondly should we net 20 points from the next ten matches ( take the ave over the last 10 if you want or last 5 :-) ) then our goal differance will be intact and with 7 to play which include our some of our expected rivals avoiding defeat may well be the route up for us. More importantly we will in control of our own destiny. If this is how things work out then we may only need 7 points, maybe more but 10 or more should be achievable. What would be more interesting and will occur when we are down to the last ten matches is who is in contention for what, and who is playing who? This I feel is a clear assessment of what our targets should be and what is obtainable. You can play alsorts of games with stats and even gain an edge, but you can not predict the future. I agree that the team that finishes better than 3rd has finished 2nd or 1st, but my point is like this: Those people saying 80pts or above is the amount need for pipping others to the post and finishing 2nd (because 80pts was the average for 3rd place in the last few seasons) are not thinking about it sensibly. 1. QPR - GD: +39, Pts: 88 2. Norwich - GD: +25, Pts: 84 3. Swansea - GD: +27, Pts: 80 In the above situation, finishing on 81pts (or indeed finishing on 80 & having a better GD than Swansea) would not have been enough to finish 2nd in the league. We'd have simply pushed Swansea to 4th. This is why if you are going to talk about some theorectical "target" for finishing in the top 2, you need to look at the average total for teams finishing in 2nd place, not 3rd. * end of maths rant * Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_Fatboyslow_ Posted 8 February 2013 Share Posted 8 February 2013 Ok Dan if you beat the team in 3rd you finish 3rd, in your example QPR did not finish 3rd. You get promoted by where you finish not by your points total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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