Chilwell_Fox Posted 7 February 2013 Share Posted 7 February 2013 Hi all, As we are pretty much into the final third of the season I have started to take a look at our run in. I did some digging into how many points we may need to secure 2nd place (Sorry optimists, I think 1st place has already been decided). I looked over the last 5 years to see how many points were achieved by teams finishing in second place. They were; Southampton, 88 pts (11/12) Norwich, 84 pts (10/11) WBA, 91 pts (09/10) Birmingham City, 83 pts (08/09) Stoke, 79 pts (07/08) That’s an average of 85 points. From our current position to achieve that we will need to average 1.89 pts per game or win 11 of our remaining 17 league games to hit 86 pts. When I took a look at run I noticed how difficult the remaining three games were (Palace away, Watford home and Forest away). I think we may find that if we have not already achieved 2nd spot before these games we will have to go via the playoffs. With things looking so tight in there at the minute the best time to make a break away from the pack would be now. Our next 5 league games are Peterborough (24th), Charlton (14th), Blackpool (15th), Blackburn (13th) and Ipswich (19th). Quite hopeful going into this weekend as Watford play Palace on Friday (at least one of them has to drop some points) and Hull have to go to Brighton which is not exactly an easy trip. So which 11 games should we look to win? These are the ones that I think are a must win Peterborough (a) Charlton (h) Blackburn (h) Ipswich (a) Shef Wed (h) Millwall (h) Barnsley (a) Birmingham(h) Bolton (h) However, that is only 9 games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest BlueBrett Posted 7 February 2013 Share Posted 7 February 2013 11 wins from 17 doesn't sound too bad given the way we've been playing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chilwell_Fox Posted 7 February 2013 Author Share Posted 7 February 2013 Sounds pretty tough to me. Not sure if we can win that many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kristianity77 Posted 7 February 2013 Share Posted 7 February 2013 The thing is, you dont have to look at how many points were scored by the team in second to clinch second. You have to see what the team got in 3rd, and add a point on. For example, in your list above West Brom got 91 points. But if they had gotten 80 points, they would still have finished 2nd, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpTheLeagueFox Posted 7 February 2013 Share Posted 7 February 2013 Sounds pretty tough to me. Not sure if we can win that many. It isn't an easy ask - and neither is it for Hull, Watford and Palace of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LcFc_Smiv Posted 7 February 2013 Share Posted 7 February 2013 I know this is a bit of fun, but we've found in previous years it's impossible to predict how anything will work out in this league! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattyFromLE Posted 7 February 2013 Share Posted 7 February 2013 It's different every year. Whilst we're all exciting and trying to make it seem more probable... the thing we have to do is not worry about other teams. Beat whoever are in front of us and worry about the rest of the league in May, when we're a Premiership and they're not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whoareyaaa Posted 7 February 2013 Share Posted 7 February 2013 I think we definitely have it in us to win 11 games out of the 17 remaining for sure, but will that be enough to secure 2nd spot, I don't know as its still very tight at the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happy Fox Posted 7 February 2013 Share Posted 7 February 2013 I think 11 wins is manageable we have 8 home games left so 8 wins is likely on the form we have showed this season and last season to a lesser extent since NP's return. 3 away wins at Dierby C**ty, Blackpool and Peterborough is doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chilwell_Fox Posted 7 February 2013 Author Share Posted 7 February 2013 The average points for teams finishing third in the last 5 years is 80 West Ham 86 Swansea 80 Forest 79 Shef Utd 80 Hull 75 That would leave us needing 28 more points at an average of 1.6 per game or 9 wins and a draw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kristianity77 Posted 7 February 2013 Share Posted 7 February 2013 The average points for teams finishing third in the last 5 years is 80 West Ham 86 Swansea 80 Forest 79 Shef Utd 80 Hull 75 That would leave us needing 28 more points at an average of 1.6 per game or 9 wins and a draw. Thats more like it. I think 9 more wins will do it, and a few draws along the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phillo Posted 7 February 2013 Share Posted 7 February 2013 Weve only lost 8from 29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevelcfc Posted 7 February 2013 Share Posted 7 February 2013 Let's face it barring a monumental cock up we will get the play offs as a minimum, and at the start of the season most would've taken that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AKCJ Posted 7 February 2013 Share Posted 7 February 2013 The average points for teams finishing third in the last 5 years is 80 West Ham 86 Swansea 80 Forest 79 Shef Utd 80 Hull 75 That would leave us needing 28 more points at an average of 1.6 per game or 9 wins and a draw. Exactly. To get 2nd you have to get more points than 3rd, not beat the average of previous runners-up points totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chilwell_Fox Posted 7 February 2013 Author Share Posted 7 February 2013 Exactly. To get 2nd you have to get more points than 3rd, not beat the average of previous runners-up points totals. West Ham's points total last year was 86 points, higher than the average for 2nd place. Thats why I calculated the average points for 2nd place not 3rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashley Posted 7 February 2013 Share Posted 7 February 2013 Anyone know where I can get ground covered stars e.g. How many km/miles a player runs a game please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElsieLC Posted 7 February 2013 Share Posted 7 February 2013 The thing is, you dont have to look at how many points were scored by the team in second to clinch second. You have to see what the team got in 3rd, and add a point on. For example, in your list above West Brom got 91 points. But if they had gotten 80 points, they would still have finished 2nd, Well, with City's goal difference the extra point might be superfluous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manwell Pablo Posted 7 February 2013 Share Posted 7 February 2013 Getting serious Déjà vu in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpTheLeagueFox Posted 7 February 2013 Share Posted 7 February 2013 Let's face it barring a monumental cock up we will get the play offs as a minimum, and at the start of the season most would've taken that. Good point. I would've snapped the hand off anyone at the start of the season if they said we'd squeak into sixth on goal difference on the final day of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjslcfc Posted 7 February 2013 Share Posted 7 February 2013 Let's face it barring a monumental cock up we will get the play offs as a minimum, and at the start of the season most would've taken that. Being in the position we are in now you would be disappointed not to get automatic, wouldn't you? I'd say expectations have certainly changed since the start of the season. They always do over the course of a season. For me, the play offs are far too much of a lottery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonnyBoy Posted 7 February 2013 Share Posted 7 February 2013 Hi all, As we are pretty much into the final third of the season I have started to take a look at our run in. I did some digging into how many points we may need to secure 2nd place (Sorry optimists, I think 1st place has already been decided). I looked over the last 5 years to see how many points were achieved by teams finishing in second place. They were; Southampton, 88 pts (11/12) Norwich, 84 pts (10/11) WBA, 91 pts (09/10) Birmingham City, 83 pts (08/09) Stoke, 79 pts (07/08) That’s an average of 85 points. From our current position to achieve that we will need to average 1.89 pts per game or win 11 of our remaining 17 league games to hit 86 pts. When I took a look at run I noticed how difficult the remaining three games were (Palace away, Watford home and Forest away). I think we may find that if we have not already achieved 2nd spot before these games we will have to go via the playoffs. With things looking so tight in there at the minute the best time to make a break away from the pack would be now. Our next 5 league games are Peterborough (24th), Charlton (14th), Blackpool (15th), Blackburn (13th) and Ipswich (19th). Quite hopeful going into this weekend as Watford play Palace on Friday (at least one of them has to drop some points) and Hull have to go to Brighton which is not exactly an easy trip. So which 11 games should we look to win? These are the ones that I think are a must win Peterborough (a) Charlton (h) Blackburn (h) Ipswich (a) Shef Wed (h) Millwall (h) Barnsley (a) Birmingham(h) Bolton (h) However, that is only 9 games. Ipswich away? nahhhh mate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fox92 Posted 7 February 2013 Share Posted 7 February 2013 There is a mixture of fixtures for us. The likes of Ipswich and Blackburn are near the bottom, but the games will still be tough. With the way we have been playing though, I'd expect us to get a decent return of around 20 points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Facecloth Posted 7 February 2013 Share Posted 7 February 2013 All I'm worried about is us beating Peterborough on Saturday. Then I'll worry about us beating Charlton, then once that's out the way, Blackpool, then Blackburn, and so on. And I hope the players think that way too. No point putting pressure on to win a certain amount of games, or having to win certain games. If we take each game one at a time, try not to get too down after the odd defeat, we'll be fine. Beat Peterborough, and the rest before we even contemplate what we might need against Palace, Watford and Forest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_Fatboyslow_ Posted 7 February 2013 Share Posted 7 February 2013 Let's face it barring a monumental cock up we will get the play offs as a minimum, and at the start of the season most would've taken that. At the start of the season top ten would have been ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonnyBoy Posted 7 February 2013 Share Posted 7 February 2013 At the start of the season top ten would have been ok huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.