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leicsmac

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Everything posted by leicsmac

  1. ...in the opinion of the original inventor only, yes. They could well be right, in fact given the balance of probability they likely are right. But balance of probability isn't enough, not on this one. Which is why I'm very much standing by what I said - more time is needed for- Hang on: https://in.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-pcr/fact-check-inventor-of-method-used-to-test-for-covid-19-didnt-say-it-cant-be-used-in-virus-detection-idUSKBN24420X "False. The quote undermining PCR tests is misattributed to Mullis and taken out of context. PCR tes
  2. You'd think so, wouldn't you. But still I'd like to see what he says corroborated by more study before being certain enough to stake as much as is needed to be staked on it.
  3. Until it is corroborated by peer review, I doubt the word of any person in the scientific field. That's the basis of the method. Other people, are, of course, free to do as they please.
  4. I'm sorry, I see nothing of the sort. I see an theory uncorroborated by peer review that the testing may be flawed and as such false positives may be getting out, and ergo Covid would not kill more people than flu and pneumonia should "normal" life resume. It's possible and I'm not going to discount it out of hand, but taking a colossal chance on it without harder evidence and more research when the penalty for getting it wrong is likely so dire? No.
  5. I do and I do (though the way the PCR test is used is a debate in itself). However, I'm not sure how that supports an argument that we have enough information to suggest that more relaxed measures wouldn't, to the degree of certainty necessary, result in a spike in Covid that could result in more serious economic and social consequences.
  6. Speaking personally, I'd much rather see Trump recover and get some jail time after being kicked out of the WH in November than become a martyr to some of the true nutcases that follow him.
  7. They could, when so many people are prepared to either not scrutinise or ignore the evidence in favour of their own narrative. Scrutiny, after all, only matters when the source doing the scrutinising is thought to be trustworthy. That being said, as above, if it is all staged it isn't a good move, for a variety of reasons.
  8. Fair point well made. It's not like the polls are looking good for him and perhaps desperation has spawned this idea. It's a pretty bad one if that's the case, though. Also a fair point, but I don't think this helps him in that regard, either. Doesn't exactly make him look tough in the way a "strongman" has to.
  9. The most important word in that post. The point is, as it has been all along, that we don't know enough about how many cases would spring up (with the associated social and economic upheaval) if restrictions were lifted. As such, it might be a good idea to know more about that before proceeding.
  10. Someone putting it all a bit more eloquently than I can: "A lot of folks are understandably wondering whether Trump is faking his positive test in order to change the political narrative or gain sympathy, or just get out of the next debate then claim that he wasn’t all that sick and it’s not dangerous. I don’t buy this, for three reasons. First, all of his top campaign advisors and White House staff will now need to quarantine or will be side-lined during a crucial phase of the election
  11. Rode the railway from Vladivostok to Leicester, stopping at Irkutsk, Moscow and Paris along the way. Drove a steamboat on Lake Winnipesaukee. Represented Leicestershire at chess. Seen the Aurora Borealis while out sledging in Northern Sweden.
  12. As was said upstream, it's possible, but if it is a ploy it's a risky one because the political captial he loses from not taking part in the debates and the image he loses from appearing weak enough to get it in the first place might overshadow any positive story of him "beating" it.
  13. Current situation where things are quite close: Texas - Trump + 3.6% Iowa - Trump + 2.3% Georgia - Trump +1.2% North Carolina - Biden +0.6% Ohio - Biden +0.6% Florida - Biden + 1.7% Arizona - Biden + 2.6% Pennsylvania - Biden + 5.1% And Trump needs every single one of those to win. I mean, it's possible so it's not cut and dried, but... WRT being unable to continue a campaign, the vice-president of the campaign then becomes the candidate by default, I think. No precedent for a delay.
  14. It's certainly possible that this could just be a last-ditch PR move, because there are some possible benefits to it as you have highlighted. The only counterpoint I'd offer is that to blokes like Trump, getting sick like this is a sign of weakness (especially after downplaying the virus itself) and they can't abide that. And he really needs the debates to be able to lay into Biden and prop up the poll numbers so he'd want them to go ahead. So if this is all a calculated way of winning votes at the last minute, it's a risky one - but then it's plausible given how he sta
  15. I'm sure he'll try. But I don't think there will be that many of the few "undecideds" that remain that will buy it given past record.
  16. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-54381848 Well, he evidently thinks it is as a result of being given a positive test result or he wouldn't say what he said. I guess we'll know for sure as things develop.
  17. Well, that has an effect on the landscape.
  18. https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-54347878 If China really do mean what they say, then the other major players (Russia, the US, Brazil, India etc) need to follow. It's as simple as that.
  19. Voted for either of the two biggest UK political parties in a General Election.
  20. Interesting. However, unless you're able to tell in real time (and real time rather than after the fact is the important part there) who spreads the virus and who doesn't, then it must be assumed that all people that have Covid spread it until proven otherwise, which is where we're at now.
  21. Ah, now I get it. I think there's been an awful lot of irresponsibility regarding Covid in the UK from a lot of people for a lot of different reasons, and it mostly boils down to self interest, whether that's a student wanting to make what they believe is the most of university life, someone not wearing a mask in shop because of their own belief in personal freedom, or someone else driving halfway across the country and violating lockdown regs for personal reasons. Can only speak for myself here, but I'd rather look at it from an individual perspective rather than group
  22. Not sure if I'm getting your point totally in the second paragraph, but if I am, IMO unfortunately there is a lot of "I get it" towards the climate and autocrats in particular, which is exactly why too little is being done on the former and too many of the latter are in power.
  23. They haven't shut their borders so people can come in, but anyone coming in - Korean or otherwise - has to stay in a quarantine facility (or in case of resident in their own home after taking designated transportation there) for 14 days and get two negative tests before being given the OK. Lockdowns, for me, work when they're well-targetted and you don't have that many cases to deal with anyway. Korea have been superb at dealing with the localised outbreaks as they happen and thus keeping the number down from the start.
  24. Given the stance you showed towards baristas and students, I can see where Carl jumped to that conclusion (as unfounded as it turned out to be), though - unfortunately there is rather a lot of judgement of folks in what are judged as "lesser" jobs by folks who have never really seen that side, but I guess that's always been the case. Bring on enough automation for a UBI and people can work as they choose IMO (as unlikely as the powers that be would be OK with that) - but again, topic for another thread.
  25. Way I see it, pretty much everyone on here who talks about the topic is statistically (that is to say, a little run of bad circumstances, like this pandemic for instance) closer to destitution than they are to the "aspirational" objectives that many seek to reach and a lot of it relies on luck so some humility might not be amiss, but hey. Anyhow, on topic, Korea steadily getting on top of the mini-outbreak that happened a few weeks back - almost back to daily case numbers approaching what it was like before it happened.
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