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leicsmac

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Everything posted by leicsmac

  1. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-chances-are-dwindling-that-could-make-him-dangerous/ Another good analysis from 538, addressing some of the arguments people use for Trump still having as good a chance (or better) than Biden despite the numbers showing otherwise.
  2. https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2020-54359993 Turns out a lot people are seeing the dog-whistles for what they are now. Good.
  3. Don't worry, by the time you retire that coffee shop will be zero-G, so that'll be something. Promise!
  4. Don't tell me you've given into misanthropy at the state of the future like I have, Inno!
  5. True enough. However, you need that 3-4% shift (sometimes as much as 6% if we're factoring in people staying home/voting third party rather than switching Biden for Trump) and you need that across five separate battleground states simultaneously. I mean, it's certainly plausible and it is disturbing. However, I honestlydon't think the debate is going to stoke that much fire.
  6. Sorry for not getting back to this earlier! The mass inside a black hole is compressed into spaces so dense that it's difficult to comprehend them. That much mass in such a small place is what generates so much gravity to cause the black hole in the first place.
  7. Fusion really is the Holy Grail of energy generation tech - more efficient, cleaner and an order of magnitude more powerful than anything we have right now. If only we can really break through on it.
  8. What an unbelievable mess. But there was nothing in there that hurt Biden enough to shift poll figures drastically, so it's as you were.
  9. Wallace having trouble with moderation here. Not overly surprising, though.
  10. "Just 6% of those polled by CBS News say they are watching tonight’s debate to decide who they’ll vote for." Yep, there aren't many fencesitters anymore - not in this day and age.
  11. First debate tonight then: https://www.bbc.com/news/live/election-us-2020-54311223 However, I stand by what I say in that unless there's a massive, massive gaffe or a massive revelation from either party, the debates themselves won't change the overall picture that much because thanks to social media pretty much everyone knows everything there is to know about the two candidates and their platforms anyway.
  12. Get off the fence and tell us how you really feel, man!
  13. https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-54329813 Humans started the current great extinction event. They can stop it too. Just takes the political will.
  14. Yep, that's rather my point. The "average people" who thought he would be worth a go four years ago aren't nearly so great in number now as they were then. Of course Trump knows how to win as well as you do, but by and large the numbers are saying that they're not buying what he's selling - at least for now.
  15. Non-paywalled version of the NYT article: https://archive.is/2STEO
  16. For fiscal and/or social self-interest, then? Now that there has been 4 years of Trump governance, no one can be ignorant of the man or his policy decisions as perhaps some were in 2016 - I'm curious as to another reason why "young, intelligent family-oriented rational people" would want 4 more years of that than self-interest. In 2016 that was indeed the case as Trump was a less known quantity politically. Safe to say that's no longer the case, and the appeal among the average man/woman might be why his poll numbers aren't what they were at this point four years ago
  17. Well, it's any of what was said in that post about Trump's deeds not true? But it is right, his supporter base certainly isn't all dumb. Some of them are very smart indeed, and revel in exerting power over people they deem "lesser". And because they're smart, they're pretty good at it too.
  18. If the margin is small enough that Trump leads through in person voting on election night,I would say it is a high probability that he will try to use the courts up to the Supreme Court in order to delegitimise the postal ballots and win that way. A decisive defeat so thorough that it's clear he lost in election day too would make that much harder to do and I think that would probably be the end of the line, so I reckon you're on the money with your assumptions. However, I still think that whatever the result, there is going to be serious unrest afterwards. A convincing win for Bid
  19. Well, it won't affect the devoted following that he has - they're too far gone - but it certainly won't help him and as he's drifting a bit further in the polls now he needs a bit of help.
  20. Yeah, it's pretty much as you say. The "thin blue line" represented on a flag has been co-opted by far-right groups in the US as a way of deflecting attention from the systemic race-based problems within policing and the justice system in a lot of the US - going "what about those brave blue lives" rather than actually addressing the problem because, you know, they're ok with the way things are now. I guess folks saw the UK flag with similar representation and thought it represented similar views. Of course, given the reasonably obvious differences between the attitudes of police i
  21. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-54312699 Barrett it is. The Senate Dems should ask one important question at the hearing IMO: "In the case that your religious belief conflicts with the law as stated, can you say in clear conscience that you will choose the law as stated in each and every case?" Of course, she will defend herself and say "Yes" (as she has done before) but it's important to get it as a matter of record so if she does decide to, say, make a religious-based ruling on Roe v Wade, there will have been irrefutable evidence that she lied un
  22. Close, but not quite, I think - at least their thoughts on the matter would be with the health and general wellbeing of some other people in mind rather than pure self-interest - though obviously not all. So many problems with the world tend to be down to this, don't they? Humans need to get better at that. Quickly, too.
  23. They do indeed face making such sacrifices - they and a lot of other people besides. The idea being, rightly or wrongly (depending on one's point of view) to protect the medical infrastructure of the UK by making it harder to be a vector of the virus and thus protect lives for long enough for a vaccine to get out there. People who don't want to do this and thus are more likely to be vectors are (because the virus won't affect them nearly so badly as other people they might transmit it to) acting in their own self-interest by prioritising their own needs ahead of that of other peopl
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