ClaphamFox

I think in every case so far the deductions imposed have been significantly less than the PL wanted.

It's how we deal with the independent panel that reviews our case that matters, not how we have dealt with the PL. It's the panel that judges how co-operative we are with them, and what the punishment is. They have to explain their decisions in detail, including any further points deducted for aggravating factors and points given back for mitigating factors. Our legal challenges have so far vindicated us, so there is no way they could be used as a reason to punish us more heavily. There's a lot of confusion about how the process works - plenty of folk on social media etc seem to think the PL can 'throw the book at us' just because they don't like us, but that isn't how the process works at all.

That may be true, but I’m not sure it actually counts as an aggravating factor. Plus, the PL do not decide the punishment.

Tom Fellows. He's quite pacey.

How on earth would they get to -10? Kieran Maguire reckons our breach will be slightly less than Forest's and they only got -4 (which they are appealing). What is it that convinces you that we'll be hit harder than both Everton and Forest when they obtained a sporting advantage while we were relegated?!

Even if they are, I would be extremely surprised if they could impose a new rule retrospectively. If they tried, I'm sue Nick De Macro would be all over that like a rat up a drainpipe.

One interesting thing that Dom said was that the formation we play really benefits from a dribbling midfielder who is talented at going past players in one of the 8 positions. If you're up against two banks of five, passing between the lines is very difficult, whereas a player who can dribble through is much more likely to create chances. Both of our wingers can do that to an extent, but we struggle to do it from the middle, hence our difficulty against the deep block. It was also interesting (though not surprising) to hear his statistical analysis of our recent form. In the first half of the season we were comfortably outscoring our xG and conceding less than our xGC, but over the last ten games this has completely flipped - ie, we've scored far less than we should have and conceded far more. It suggests our overall play hasn't changed that much, but our efficiency at both ends of the pitch has just collapsed.

If we win our next two games, we'll either be four points clear (if Leeds win at Middlesbrough on Monday) or five points clear (if they draw or lose). If we win both and Leeds lose at Middlesbrough, we'll be promoted next Tuesday.

Well he's the expert so I defer to his superior knowledge, but didn't the EFL recently admit that there was no way to punish us for our PL breach while we were in the EFL? This is what they said: "Having taken legal advice, the EFL has confirmed to all parties that whilst it would want to respect any decision of a Premier League disciplinary commission (and vice versa) to deduct points in the EFL, it does not have the power under the regulations as currently drafted."

The best sponsors are those who will pay us the most. I doubt that would be Walkers.

Probably won't see it until we know our fate and therefore sponsor for next season.

The press reports that we were going to sue Everton were pure clickbait nonsense. It’s frankly astonishing that anybody actually believes them, let alone uses them as a stick to beat our club with. That’s the kind of behaviour I’d expect from our rivals, not from our own fans. You think the club is a disgrace’? Really? We made some poor decisions over player contracts that came back to bite ua hard when the squad spectacularly underperformed last season and got relegated. Mismanagement? Yes. A diagrace? Don’t be so melodramatic 😂

If we finish in the top two we will deserve it. Why would ‘all the other shit’ around the club mean we don’t deserve it?!

Yes we will. We are unlikely to play against an ultra-defensive low block again this season - our remaining games will be more open, which will suit us much better. I expect us to win our next two games and we may even have it sewn up next Tuesday if Leeds lose at Middlesbrough, which is possible.

If our plan for next season depends on Sensi playing 38 games, I might have spotted a flaw in it.

Very possibly.

There's a pattern though, isn't there? We're struggling badly in front of away crowds against teams that set up in a low block. At home we seem to be a different proposition - coming from behind and playing very well against Norwich and plugging away (despite not playing brilliantly) to eventually overcome a low block against Birmingham. West Brom and Southampton will attack us. It's likely that neither Preston nor Blackburn will have anything to play for when we face them, which may encourage them to try to put on more of an attacking show for their fans. It's very possible we won't face an ultra-defensive set-up like those deployed by Millwall and Plymouth again this season. Two wins is probably all we'll need. I'm putting my money on us getting them. Then the analysis can begin on how the hell we go about trying to stay up next season....

Yes, we will have a points deduction next season if we go up. Probably four points like Forest, possibly less. We won't get a points deduction next season for the 2020-23 breach if we stay down. My understanding is that if we breach this year, the EFL won't be able to impose a points deduction on us while we're in the PL. No club who has breached while in the EFL has been given a points deduction after being promoted. Obviously if we breach this season and stay down, the EFL will likely go after us. In that scenario, a rapid firesale of assets, including KDH, is highly likely. There is no 'next period' for FFP in the PL because it is being replaced by a different system. The new system will of course require us to cut our cloth in some way, but it's not yet clear whether that will mean we have to sell KDH this summer or not. We might do, of course, but I'm not sure it's as certain as many people believe.

That seems to be the received wisdom, but I'm not so sure. If we go up we're highly unlikely to receive a points deduction for any breach this season, and the club may decide that the benefit of keeping KDH might outweigh the negative impact of any fine we'll receive.

If we go up, the pressure on us to sell players will diminish significantly. However if somebody offers £40m+ I can see the club being tempted.

Everything I've heard from people who've encountered him supports this. He's apparently a very decent lad who is a genuine supporter as well as our best player. It's astonishing how some fans will take against one of our own on the basis of literally no evidence.

Exactly. Transfer embargoes actively discourage clubs from selling their best players and trying to get their finances under control. They make further breaches more likely, not less. It's basically saying, "We're punishing you for breaching financial rules - and we're going to make it impossible for you to comply next season, too." That's right. The EFL can't touch us at all for the EPL breach. So if we don't go up we won't have a points deduction next season for the 2020-23 breach.

Their source for the story is Football Insider, which is a crap source. That said, if we don't go up he'll obviously be off somewhere, and Spurs seem as likely as anybody else to come in for him. I suspect he'll stay if we go up.

I don't think any country is actively seeking to start a world war. The danger is that tensions slowly escalate to a point where it becomes a material risk. Israel will very likely respond to Iran's rocket attacks in a way that is escalatory but also calibrated enough to avoid a full out regional conflict. These actions might include an attack on Iran’s proxies including Hezbollah, further targeted assassinations, attacks on the source of Iranian attack or other limited military targets. Then the onus will return to Iran on how to respond and tensions may continue to rise gradually. All of this may occur while the ground war in Ukraine shows no sign of ending and China continues to threaten Taiwan. The accumulation of geopolitical strife in different parts of the world can be a route to global war. These things usually aren't planned - events just pile up in such a way that they become inevitable. Hopefully that won't be the case this time.

It’s highly likely that neither Preston nor Blackburn will have anything to play for by the time we face them, which may encourage them to attack a bit more. The fact that three of our remaining games are at home is also a major bonus - we’ve been generally much better at home than away recently.