ClaphamFox

Over the season as a whole, the PPG stats for the games in which Vestergaard played vs those he didn't are stark. There is a huge difference. I don't think that can be glossed over by narrowing down the frame of reference to Cifuentes' last nine games. Okoli is not good enough for this level. Nelson is talented but is extremely inconsistent. We need at least one experienced head in there, whether that be Vestergaard, Lascelles or Souttar. I suspect when everyone is fit Nelson will be on the bench and Okoli will struggle to make the squad.

Isn't it possible that our collapse in form has something to do with Vestergaard being out and having to rely on Okoli and Nelson?

This article published today in the Mercury hints that Vestergaard isn't quite ready but Souttar may be. It also says that with Vestergaard in the team this season we have averaged 1.33 points per game and only 0.86 points per game without him. https://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/jannik-vestergaard-harry-souttar-injury-10873187

Is Begovic fit?

You're not the only one—many on here were predicting we'd get thrashed in those games, and even in the Stoke game too. The pattern we seem to be falling into is that away from home we actually do resemble a typical Rowett team—ie, defensive structure, determination, resilience under pressure, etc. We just struggle to show the same qualities at home. It’s hard to say whether this is purely a mental thing (ie, the players feel less pressure away from the KP and draw from the more unconditional support of our away following) or physical (both of our home losses under Rowett have been the 3rd game in a three-game week), or a combination of the two. Whatever it is, we’re back on the road this weekend and will have had a full week to recover from the QPR game (unlike Watford who played last night). I have a feeling we’ll get something from the game and will go into the international break with a bit more optimism than we have now. There are ups and downs to come before final whistle blows at Blackburn on 2 May.

We're the footballing equivalent of the moment in Downfall when Hitler convinces himself that General Steiner will launch a counterattack and save Berlin, only to be told by General Jodl, "Mein Fuhrer.....Steinel was unable to mass sufficient forces for an attack"—and the penny finally drops.

Vestergaard is not a magic answer, but the stats do tell a story. Vestergaard’s last appearance was the home loss against Oxford. At that point we’d gained 38 points from 29 games, and Vestergaard had played in 24 of those games. We’d conceded 43 goals over the period at an average rate of 1.5 goals per game. This record was bad enough to get Marti the sack, but we were still 14th at the time (this was prior to the points deduction). Since that game we’ve gained six points from nine games, all of which came during Rowett’s six games. We’ve conceded 17 goals during that time at a rate of 1.9 goals per game. So there has been a major drop off in points-per-game & defensive stats while Vestergaard has been out. Obviously there are other factors at play here (most notably the fact that Jordan James was also absent for much of that period), but the figures do suggest that the Okoli-Nelson partnership has been very damaging to our cause. With Lascelles available and Vestergaard not far away, dare we hope that things may improve in this area?

Based on the table, all six of the teams we’ve played under Rowett are better than us. Yet we won one and drew three of those games. The team clearly prefers playing away from home and I think on Saturday we’ll revert back to the stubborn resilience we showed at Stoke, Middlesbrough and Ipswich. It will be a tight game and we’ll probably get something out of it. Hope will be rekindled and our suffering will continue after the international break.

Given how we’ve been playing away from home under Rowett this would be a very surprising outcome. When we’re not at the KP we seem to show a bit of the resilience and determination that Rowett’s teams are known for. It’s when we’re at home that it all falls apart again.

He will, but it will likely be in addition to Skipp rather than instead of him. JJ will probably move up to replace Mukasa.

If we won every bastard game we'd be on 62 points, which I reckon would probably be enough. In fact history suggests that 50 will be enough, which means we need to get 12 points from the 24 available.

Or end the day at the top of that mini league of five. Saturday felt like a pivotal moment but it's so tight down there it could turn around very quickly.

As a support striker/number 10 ahead of a midfield three of Skipp, Winks and James? That would be interesting to see, though I suspect he'd more likely go for BDCR in that role.

If he didn't know it before, Rowett must surely know by now that if he doesn't do something about the team's mental fragility we will go down. Lascelles was brought in for precisely that reason and must play if fit. And while Harry Winks' chequered history with us may not scream 'leader' to everyone, he is one of the few players we have who is vocal on the pitch and he needs to be brought back in. Daka is clearly not a leader but at least he's a willing soldier, whereas Ayew is an anti-leader and energy vampire, so Daka must obviously play. Those three changes are required as a bare minimum. Hopefully Rowett will look at the formation as well.

I agree, but interestingly the bookies don’t.

Just finished it. I enjoyed the Ayew primal therapy session and agreed with every single word, but it‘s worth noting that despite having him and Daka as our striking options, we have the goal scoring record of an upper-mid-table side in this division. They’re a big problem but our defence is an even bigger problem. The fundamental problem we have, as Ric correctly stated, is the complete absence of culture. It’s true that even when Vichai was alive we were still very much a ‘manager club’, but there was also a much deeper sense of identity that ran through the club. That sense of identity has now gone, meaning even more weight is placed on the manager’s shoulders to drive the club forwards. This approach will always result in failure because there aren’t anywhere near enough managers around who can handle that level of responsibility and are willing to do it for a club of our size.

Henry Winter said on the BSLB podcast that there was a ‘bit of tit-for-tat’ going on with the two appeals. He didn’t specify which side decided to appeal first and which tried to counteract it with its own appeal. I suspect you’re right and that the PL drew first, but I wouldn’t put it past us to do so either…

We’re in the mess we’re in because of the defence and we can only get out of it if Rowett somehow sorts out the defence. Last week he said that he would like to bring Lascelles in but didn’t feel he could break up the formidable Nelson-Okoli partnership. Well, nobody will complain if you break it up now, Gary. The interesting question is what he’ll do if both Lascelles and Vestergaard are available to play.

They’re losing at the moment.

We're clearly better at responding to adversity away from home. In the three away draws under Rowett we were leading before conceding equalisers. At home we'd have very likely collapsed and lost those games, but away from home we seem to be able to dig in and grind it out. The problem is, another hard-fought point probably won't be enough this Saturday—we need to win it.

On Saturday it felt like writing was on the wall & that the word it spelt was 'relegation'. But for some reason I have a feeling that those hoping for the agony to be over soon are going to get their wish. Under Rowett this team still has the ability to turn up, especially when it is not expected to. I think Rowett will shake things up a bit, resulting in a much improved performance and result, and a little bit of hope will return before the international break. We’re not about to be let off this emotional rollercoaster.

Has he extolled the virtues of Ayew?

They’ve been attacked for that post by some notable Leicester-supporting journalists.