Les-TA-Jon

Maybe I didn’t read your comments closely enough. But my understanding was that your claim was ‘Leicester’s wins are too uncomfortable, too often this season’ the margin of victory table was to show that we’ve actually got more wins by 2+ goals than anyone else

Regardless of whether you think it’s a red “for you” or not, I find it hard to believe that the current PL VAR system looks at this and agrees with “no foul”

It's not really about what we think. Do you honestly think PL VAR wouldn't have turned that into a red!?

Isn't the opposite the case? Because the onfield decision is "no foul" there's a bigger gap between the onfield decision and what actually happened - i.e a clear and obvious error, with clear threshold met for overturning the decision. Take your blue tinted specs off it's a clear red. Reckless, endangering the opponent, totally misses the ball, late, studs up right on the knee, the knee buckles showing clear force behind the tackle. It's textbox. Obviously impossible to prove a negative, but had it been a PL game, regardless of on-field decision, I'd have been amazed to not see a VAR intervention recommending a red.

What's the data/calculation behind the green line then?

I mean, they’re not wrong. Mavididi could have been booked. VAR would have definitely turned Fatawu’s challenge (onfield decision: no foul) into a Red

Weird that you’re trying to suggest I’ve got some sort of agenda to ‘cook’ the stats. And, it’s a margin of victory table, so…it only shows margin of victory. That’s all it can show? Not sure what you’re driving at. There’s been lots of comments floating around about us being crap at attacking/the top 4 being better than us. One measure is looking at margin of victory. Which we’re actually the best at. There’s not some other grand narrative at play. It’s quite a simple statistic, presented without much value judgement

Why? Best defence in the league. Only really concede scrappy goals (which all teams do)

Margin of victory stats, for context: Ipswich worse than us for the tight wins, and half as many bigger wins. Leeds 3 fewer comfortable wins. Southampton 4 fewer.

Oh screw that, thought we were in The Championship Thread discussing games with points...

What is the 2nd game? We've only dropped 11 points all season? Three 0-1 losses (no leads slipped) and the 1-1 draw away at Sheffield Wednesday

We're also the only team in the League with a positive goal difference across all match segments and boast the league high 16-4 record in the final 15 mins of matches, which is frankly absurd across 21 matches. I mean, heck we've only conceded 4 goals in the final 30 mins of matches! 21-4 from the 60 min mark onwards is bonkers!

Er....we've only dropped 11 points all season? Three 0-1 losses (no leads slipped) and the 1-1 draw away at Sheffield Wednesday...

Where's this idea that we're crap at attacking come from? Just checked margin of victory for the top 4... OK so 2nd highest wins by 1 goal, but 8 wins by 2+ goals, compared to Ipswich on 5, Leeds on 5, Southampton on 4.

Hmm not sure. As I say, I think 90-95 points is probably, with the lower end of that range looking most likely. Leeds/Southampton both on track for 87.8 points. They've dropped 24 points across 22 games and can drop 24 points across their remaining 24 games to finish on 90. Any kind of drop off from either and it'll be less than 90 required.

Sorry! Didn't realise I hadn't put Saturday's results into my spreadsheet

Increasingly looking like Leeds/Southampton need close to perfect 2nd halves of the season and us to fall off a fair bit, for them to overcome us. You can see above: Each team's Points Targets (107 for the record, 90 for likely autos, 100 and 95 for added scenarios) with their Current Points Per Game, compared to Required Points Per Game The same data expressed as Current Dropped Points Per Game and Droppable Points Per Game Leicester can drop points at a rate 3 times higher than we are currently and still get 90 points (0.52 CD PPG vs 1.48 D PPG) Obviously a ton of football still to play, so this sort of analysis struggles to be predictive but it at least shows how difficult each team's respective tasks are, in relation to one another. Looking like 90-95 points will be enough for Autos.

Increasingly looking like Leeds/Southampton need close to perfect 2nd halves of the season and us to fall off a fair bit, for them to overcome us. You can see above: Each team's Points Targets (107 for the record, 90 for likely autos, 100 and 95 for added scenarios) with their Current Points Per Game, compared to Required Points Per Game The same data expressed as Current Dropped Points Per Game and Droppable Points Per Game Leicester can drop points at a rate 3 times higher than we are currently and still get 90 points (0.52 CD PPG vs 1.48 D PPG) Obviously a ton of football still to play, so this sort of analysis struggles to be predictive but it at least shows how difficult each team's respective tasks are, in relation to one another. Looking like 90-95 points will be enough for Autos.

Deflected goals happen all the time. Deflected goals off a team-mate are rarer but not hugely uncommon.

Totally agreed with you...until your final paragraph

Probably trying to figure out how to show that Leeds are still in better form than us.

https://youtube.com/clip/Ugkx7_LdkmET754oOj7tthzqx0UsztCxLI-T?si=HiqdTT6fu1GTfVVx Cleary Ndidi's

Obviously not from the video evidence

Irrelevant. Whoever it hits last get's the goal. They only ignore the final touch if it's on target and hits a defending player (otherwise a lot of goals would go down as own goals)