Lillehamring Posted 4 March 2009 Share Posted 4 March 2009 a lot of talk in the PMT about us getting caught by the chasing pack.... but, on current form, none of them are even averaging 2 points a game ...i'm sure some maths whizz could work out, at those current averages, all things remaining equal, how many games it would take for the required amount of points to be made up... i'm guessing way more than 13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lillehamring Posted 4 March 2009 Author Share Posted 4 March 2009 especially considering we are still number 1 on away form http://www.statto.com/football/stats/engla...form-table/away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harpendenfox Posted 4 March 2009 Share Posted 4 March 2009 I think most people feel we will still be promoted quite comfortably, but anxiety is creeping in. We haven't bossed a game since we demolished Walsall a few weeks back, when by all accounts we were magnificent. This Saturday's game now becomes rather important. Of course we should win, but it may well be tricky. And it would be typical of football for our long unbeaten run to be claimed by a bottom of the league team on the verge of administration. Four more wins from our final eleven games would give us 88 points, and that would see us promoted, I'm sure. We could even afford a dismal p11, w3, d3, l5 and still go up, but I think we'll do better. Just wish the Merc would stop talking like we're nearly there. We need to prepare for Saturday like it's our 'cup final', take the game to Cheltenham from the first minute, not be afraid to run at them, and not stop for 95 minutes. If we do that I can see only one winner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MC Prussian Posted 4 March 2009 Share Posted 4 March 2009 Remember that we only "thrashed" Walsall thanks to a strong first half, under miserable, cold conditions when Worsow wasn't even there yet, both mentally and physically. Plus, they were scared at first. Second half was completely even. The draw misery (what a term) started earlier... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zingari Posted 4 March 2009 Share Posted 4 March 2009 aesop's fables Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lillehamring Posted 4 March 2009 Author Share Posted 4 March 2009 Remember that we only "thrashed" Walsall thanks to a strong first half, under miserable, cold conditions when Worsow wasn't even there yet, both mentally and physically. Plus, they were scared at first. Second half was completely even.The draw misery (what a term) started earlier... interesting.... and also, how many times in those draws have we hit the woodwork, i seem to remember that in three of those games we hit the woodwork several times each game... it's a very nervy time, but it is the same for eveyone, ok, we are not as commanding as we have been, but we aren't getting much worse results than anyone around us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lillehamring Posted 4 March 2009 Author Share Posted 4 March 2009 aesop's fables yeah, only on this occasion the tortoise is fucked, and the hare is strolling rather than napping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marbelladave Posted 4 March 2009 Share Posted 4 March 2009 a lot of talk in the PMT about us getting caught by the chasing pack....but, on current form, none of them are even averaging 2 points a game ...i'm sure some maths whizz could work out, at those current averages, all things remaining equal, how many games it would take for the required amount of points to be made up... i'm guessing way more than 13. At 2 points a game, our (and MKDons) closest rivals will get 84/85 points. We only need 2 wins and 6 drawers from 11 games to put us on 87, should be easy enough! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr The Singh Posted 4 March 2009 Share Posted 4 March 2009 At 2 points a game, our (and MKDons) closest rivals will get 84/85 points.We only need 2 wins and 6 drawers from 11 games to put us on 87, should be easy enough! Ikea??? Other then MK, MIlwall are the only other concern, if they win there games in hand!!! Were getting edgey and alittle complacent, I hope our strikers\midfielders find alittle form and alittle luck to give us that comfort factor of goals!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zingari Posted 4 March 2009 Share Posted 4 March 2009 i believe that most fans who are expressing concern , are not doing so because they think we will be caught , but rather that we seem well short of quality to deal with average championship sides , ok i know we should just copncentrate on the battle we are in , but fans can't help looking forwards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lillehamring Posted 4 March 2009 Author Share Posted 4 March 2009 At 2 points a game, our (and MKDons) closest rivals will get 84/85 points.We only need 2 wins and 6 drawers from 11 games to put us on 87, should be easy enough! and currently, despite being rubbish that is well below what we are averaging... and none of the chasing pack are currently averaging 2 points a game.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lillehamring Posted 4 March 2009 Author Share Posted 4 March 2009 i believe that most fans who are expressing concern , are not doing so because they think we will be caught , but rather that we seem well short of quality to deal with average championship sides , ok i know we should just copncentrate on the battle we are in , but fans can't help looking forwards of course, but one needs to factor in things that are affecting us now, not next year, i'd be very suprised if a confident, succesful team would play like this at the start of a newly promoted season... i'm not criticising those who have suggested we might get caught, mathematically it could happen... i just wanted to ease people's minds by showing that, on current form - which is what is at issue here - we are no more struggling than the chasing pack... so, it does bode well.... i, as much as anyone, would love us to win a few, and to see some goals going in... with so few games left now every win for us is effectively 6 points on a team close to us that loses, and five over a team that draws -i tend to think of it like snooker, you know, so many points ahead but only so many remaining, if you take a yellow instead of the black...well you know the rest ...whereas even if we draw the most any team will make up on us is 2 points, but at the same time it's with one less game to catch us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James. Posted 4 March 2009 Share Posted 4 March 2009 Final table if current form maintained until end of season: 1 Leicester 89.63 2 MK Dons 87.62 3 Peterborough 81.37 4 Millwall 75.29 5 Leeds United 75.04 6 Oldham 74.5 7 Walsall 71 8 Southend 70 9 Stockport 69.5 10 Tranmere 67.96 11 Huddersfield 67 12 Bristol Rovers 66.38 13 S****horpe 62.71 14 Crewe 60 15 Hartlepool 57.63 16 Colchester 56.96 17 Carlisle 55.96 18 Hereford 52.5 19 Yeovil 52.21 20 Brighton 48.38 21 Leyton Orient 47.04 22 Swindon 47 23 Northampton 46.38 24 Cheltenham 24.21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marbelladave Posted 4 March 2009 Share Posted 4 March 2009 i believe that most fans who are expressing concern , are not doing so because they think we will be caught , but rather that we seem well short of quality to deal with average championship sides , ok i know we should just copncentrate on the battle we are in , but fans can't help looking forwards I used to think that way until the penny dropped! (I can be a little slow to see the obvious sometimes) Once you realise that NP's job is to get promotion, even if it means exploiting the (ludicrous) loan system for all it is worth and have a few 'old hands' around for backup, all becomes clear. The current team is just to get us out of this division, 10-12 players will go in the summer and NP will build a completely different side, keeping just Tunchev and King as starters from the current squad. As I have said before, who we get in will depend on just how much MM is prepared to put in, so we should have a good idea what to expect next season as soon as the summer window opens and we can see the quality of players we are getting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoneDog Posted 4 March 2009 Share Posted 4 March 2009 We aint gettin caught by no threkkies. The boys are gonna do the business. And you know this maaannn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harpendenfox Posted 4 March 2009 Share Posted 4 March 2009 Final table if current form maintained until end of season:1 Leicester 89.63 2 MK Dons 87.62 3 Peterborough 81.37 4 Millwall 75.29 5 Leeds United 75.04 6 Oldham 74.5 7 Walsall 71 8 Southend 70 9 Stockport 69.5 10 Tranmere 67.96 11 Huddersfield 67 12 Bristol Rovers 66.38 13 S****horpe 62.71 14 Crewe 60 15 Hartlepool 57.63 16 Colchester 56.96 17 Carlisle 55.96 18 Hereford 52.5 19 Yeovil 52.21 20 Brighton 48.38 21 Leyton Orient 47.04 22 Swindon 47 23 Northampton 46.38 24 Cheltenham 24.21 Thanks for that. I've rated Peterborough all seaon and still think they could put together a few wins on the trot. That said, they lost at home as recently as Saturday, so maybe I'm just looking for trouble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zingari Posted 4 March 2009 Share Posted 4 March 2009 I used to think that way until the penny dropped! (I can be a little slow to see the obvious sometimes)Once you realise that NP's job is to get promotion, even if it means exploiting the (ludicrous) loan system for all it is worth and have a few 'old hands' around for backup, all becomes clear. The current team is just to get us out of this division, 10-12 players will go in the summer and NP will build a completely different side, keeping just Tunchev and King as starters from the current squad. As I have said before, who we get in will depend on just how much MM is prepared to put in, so we should have a good idea what to expect next season as soon as the summer window opens and we can see the quality of players we are getting. possibly , but i hope fryatt will be included . my past impressions of when teams make wholesale changes of personnel after promotion is not good , i'd rather go for the slow build , we aren't a club that can attract very high quality players from a lowly position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marbelladave Posted 4 March 2009 Share Posted 4 March 2009 Final table if current form maintained until end of season:1 Leicester 89.63 2 MK Dons 87.62 3 Peterborough 81.37 4 Millwall 75.29 5 Leeds United 75.04 6 Oldham 74.5 7 Walsall 71 8 Southend 70 9 Stockport 69.5 10 Tranmere 67.96 11 Huddersfield 67 12 Bristol Rovers 66.38 13 S****horpe 62.71 14 Crewe 60 15 Hartlepool 57.63 16 Colchester 56.96 17 Carlisle 55.96 18 Hereford 52.5 19 Yeovil 52.21 20 Brighton 48.38 21 Leyton Orient 47.04 22 Swindon 47 23 Northampton 46.38 24 Cheltenham 24.21 'Current Form', is that over the season or last few (6, 8?) games? Makes a big difference! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James. Posted 4 March 2009 Share Posted 4 March 2009 'Current Form', is that over the season or last few (6, 8?) games? Makes a big difference! It's based on the link provided in the first post so the last 6 games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alexikokopops Posted 4 March 2009 Share Posted 4 March 2009 Remember that we only "thrashed" Walsall thanks to a strong first half, under miserable, cold conditions when Worsow wasn't even there yet, both mentally and physically. Plus, they were scared at first. Second half was completely even.The draw misery (what a term) started earlier... We were 4-0 after 7 minutes of the second half, what do you expect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marbelladave Posted 4 March 2009 Share Posted 4 March 2009 possibly , but i hope fryatt will be included . my past impressions of when teams make wholesale changes of personnel after promotion is not good , i'd rather go for the slow build , we aren't a club that can attract very high quality players from a lowly position Making wholesale changes after relegation has worked very well! Anyway we have to make wholesale changes, we have no alternative. With all the players leaving we will need about 10 new players just to bring our matchday squad up to strength! There are several players who might make the step up to Championship level and Fryatt is clearly one of them, but I still say that Tunchev and King are the only players we have who are certain (in my mind) to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leftsideoverhere Posted 4 March 2009 Share Posted 4 March 2009 The other factor, of course, is that the chasing pack have to play each other quite a bit over the last quarter of the season. None of them are so good that they can expect to win all those, and a sharing around of the points seems the most likely. In that situation, we seem likely to be coming into April with a six point lead over MK Dons, with them only having one game in hand left, and still being about ten points or so clear of the pack, even if our form doesn't improve. I'm expecting Leeds on Easter Monday to be the game which secures promotion, and S****horpe two weeks later to see us confirmed as champions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lillehamring Posted 4 March 2009 Author Share Posted 4 March 2009 Final table if current form maintained until end of season:1 Leicester 89.63 2 MK Dons 87.62 3 Peterborough 81.37 4 Millwall 75.29 5 Leeds United 75.04 6 Oldham 74.5 7 Walsall 71 8 Southend 70 9 Stockport 69.5 10 Tranmere 67.96 11 Huddersfield 67 12 Bristol Rovers 66.38 13 S****horpe 62.71 14 Crewe 60 15 Hartlepool 57.63 16 Colchester 56.96 17 Carlisle 55.96 18 Hereford 52.5 19 Yeovil 52.21 20 Brighton 48.38 21 Leyton Orient 47.04 22 Swindon 47 23 Northampton 46.38 24 Cheltenham 24.21 ahh, my favourite maths nerd.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zingari Posted 4 March 2009 Share Posted 4 March 2009 Making wholesale changes after relegation has worked very well!Anyway we have to make wholesale changes, we have no alternative. With all the players leaving we will need about 10 new players just to bring our matchday squad up to strength! There are several players who might make the step up to Championship level and Fryatt is clearly one of them, but I still say that Tunchev and King are the only players we have who are certain (in my mind) to do so. i agree that we have to make wholesale changes but i disagree that it usually is a good thing , especially the sort of numbers you are quoting , and for me a really good team in a "leicester " type set up has to evolve slowly . we can't afford, and probably could not attract, the type of players of sufficient quality to slip into any team , it would involve vast sums of money to do that i know its a long time ago , but the last time a club of our stature was successful , it was by a gradual builing of a team and replacing players in a slow improve fashion ( ala forest , derby under clough ) that's my opinion any way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marbelladave Posted 4 March 2009 Share Posted 4 March 2009 i agree that we have to make wholesale changes but i disagree that it usually is a good thing , especially the sort of numbers you are quoting , and for me a really good team in a "leicester " type set up has to evolve slowly . we can't afford, and probably could not attract, the type of players of sufficient quality to slip into any team , it would involve vast sums of money to do that i know its a long time ago , but the last time a club of our stature was successful , it was by a gradual builing of a team and replacing players in a slow improve fashion ( ala forest , derby under clough ) that's my opinion any way I did not say it would be a good thing, just that, as it was last season, it will be necessary this! Building a team in the old way is not going to happen either, those days have gone. No-one from the chairman to the fans have the patience for gradual team building, todays football is all about making a swift impact, and that takes money. We will see what sort of season it will be next year by the kind of player NP brings in during the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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